In the coming three to four years, the world may change drastically
Today's world seems so unpredictable that we sometimes do not believe even the next day that is not something that is what it will be in 3-4 years. Will go bankrupt if the euro zone? Will the big war in the Middle East? Expect to our country large-scale protests against the government? SUNSET whether, in the end, the empire bucks? Provide answers to these questions are very difficult, but very dependent on their almost everything to try to behold even the main mechanisms and logic that will lead to either a different ending. Because "Free Press" begins a series of articles based on interviews with well-known Russian professionals and dedicated response to a large-scale question: "What will the world around us in 2015?".
In the first article of his own vision of the immediate prospects of the responsibility of the Chief Editor of weekly magazine "However," and host of the eponymous transmission on Channel Mikhail Leontiev:
— I think the forecast for the next 5 years on the general situation in the world is connected with all the latest instability of the existing system of connections and relationships: the European Union and other international organizations will be very bolshennomu loosening, erosion, etc. There is now a system of monitoring and feedback will be destroyed, and created some new bonding. There is something very difficult to predict, it is possible to extrapolate some will, and it is faster, the question is not of calculation, as defined actions.
What we litsezreem now, is a very normal phase transition process, the world beheld it many times: first you experience a brand new dominant force in the world around an old fracture of the economy, the effectiveness of which is falling. This brand-new power that was previously peripheral, now grows and becomes wildly competitive and starts to win a place for themselves. At the moment when it becomes strong, but this jump starts resource exhausted, it decreases the productivity of capital. This drop is compensated by economies of scale, ie, expansion begins. And this is the moment when the dominant feels his superhuman greatness. The problem is that the economy of scale typical of reach certain limits — or is it beyond the globe, as is the case with the Yankees, is the extent of resistance or any other players due to the fact that at some point density increases so that you continue to move no longer can. Then you start emissions. You're the most majestic and powerful — for you all give a loan. After the real scale of the economy, the economy begins fictitious scales — inflated bubble. Later it bursts, but just when it burst, in some places already have arisen new dominant. Where they will be very hard to say, but there is a sense that America has the opportunity to save themselves as the economy of the future, but not at the global level.
"SP": — in other words the basis of future configurations will lie crisis?
— Yes, gone wild growth of different problems will go in a domino effect. The fact is that the economic prepyadstviya which can formally calculate, are never solved in nezapyatannoy economy. At some point, the economic difficulties begin to sublimate into the social, political, military-political, etc. Cliche that stateliness of depression we went through the second World War, reflects the truth. Because we never have in the economy unsullied experience, otherwise it would have been a clear science.
Today's financial imbalances will manifest in everything. This will lead to the disintegration of tainted currency, and if the economic system will be destroyed, it is useful to some basic anchor, which may be the introduction of the gold standard in one form or another. It will be some process of de-globalization, when the world's major players sprawled on its civilizational zones dominated by one country, one culture and one currency.
"SP": — Putin will be able to build such a zone at us?
— In any case, it is stated verbally. Will you? Build should not Putin, it should do all our native country, and he alone is unlikely to be able to. In the end, these things are not built without power units, but first on the inside will. During the crisis, the country's only survive, but the government is the kind of education where people do not live on the calculation, because If you live on the calculation, then the crisis of convenience as you begin to diverge. Because it must be the inner will.
"SP": — Means should be given some senses, the ideology?
— Yes, they should be meanings.
"SP": — Will it all the same to involve in our economic zone of Ukraine?
— If the policy of the Russian Federation aimed at Eurasian integration will be severe, shared and strong if it is supported by the ensuing measures in the economy and all other related fields, then Ukraine will not go away: it will be dragged into this orbit. The answer to the question "in whole or in pieces?" Is dependent on the overall situation, both in Ukraine and in the world.
The future of Europe
"SP": — By 2015, the EU will continue in its present form?
— Even if the outer configuration, and will remain, the content, of course, is quite different. It was quite evident that Italy did not take out the European Union — its impossible to take out, it would drown him. In other words, or they will be "reset ballast", which will lead to a domino effect, and Germany itself come off, then the existence of the entire structure will lose meaning — it is, excuse me, reincarnated in the CIS. You can guess what will happen earlier.
In fact the discussion of what can be stored in the eurozone core (Germany and France — approx. "JV") are not realistic, because then it just does not make sense to do: Germans want a big European market — they are its beneficiaries. The large volume of German exports sverhtehnologichny by the fact that Germany is currently the European market as a base. If this advantage disappears, then there is no point renounce personal sovereignty, taking into account that the Deutschmark has always been a strong currency in Europe. Why do I charge? For what? Because I do not see any prospects for the European Union.
In general the current European Union in some degree a form of revenge for the German catastrophe of the XX century. The fact that you can conditionally be called the Fourth Reich. Such a beautiful, stylish, politically correct, Myagenko politically very very dezaktsentirovanny 4th Reich. This geopolitical thought, that thought himself a sense of Germany in Europe, which is implemented under the roof of the former geopolitical enemy — the United States. It is clear that in the bipolar world of the idea of European integration was inserted into the strategy of the Cool War — it was a response to Russian integration, which simply could not be formulated so as to answer, then somehow need. It is also a question of cultural and psychological rehabilitation of Germany in peace and harmony with all its neighbors.
But then there is one very important point: the Germans do not want to print money. All of them are equal to their podpechatyvayut, but not directly, and they do not try to fill their crisis as Americans. It is necessary to think that if they do not otvazhutsya simply abandon the euro area, they will have to do it, because there is no
alternative, but it is also a path to the destruction of the euro zone, only a very long and more than Myagenko, as well as South American issue is the method to the destruction zone bucks. Because at some point, when your currency is beyond the scope of any high-performance, credibility begins to fall.
If you do lower the systemic, the outcome is predetermined. Question solely in the rapidly or slowly. The only difference between America and Europe is that the first is still huge prepyadstviya fundamental character, but with all this is the tool of their current shelving and mitigation in the form of a large-scale emission of currency, which in today's world configuration is the world's dominant currency. Because harder than pressing crisis, the stronger the demand for the buck that we litsezreem in the past couple of years. At a time when it will not be so, it would not be a crisis. This is another word that is not pronounced in children. It means "With things on the way out." I wish to see that the way out of the crisis will look even worse crisis. If someone thinks that the way out of it will be a breakthrough in a bright future, nothing there is no light.
The future of the U.S.
— As for the future of America, here we must note that it is most prone to sublimate their problem as a projection of force, and the socio-political and military-political sphere difficult to predict. Forces of the United States as long as there is: A large military budgets will be enough forever, but the capabilities are not the same.
Now America is facing with 2 variations: overstrained himself, trying to keep their system and its dominance over the entire world, or start to leave, that is, revive traditional South American isolationism. And then it means the end of the current model. Only in the second situation, America remains a very severe promising player as a powerful country and a strong economy, but not dominant. Moreover, in the 2nd version of the U.S. revealed the prospect of re-industrialization. For example, recently it through shale technologies will achieve energy independence, that even without the mass deployment of shale production in Europe will lead to a precipitous drop in the price of energoelementy. The tremendous growth in the supply of shale gas will inevitably put pressure on oil prices, as the world has no such process where the oil could not be displaced by gas prices for certain parameters. It does everything completely real return to America energy-intensive industries, Why they move to China if there is an enormous power base and on the spot.
The second thing that distinguishes America from Europe, it's very viability of the business structure. Their economy is sick of all macroeconomic indicators, but the business is very flexible and tough, plus the conditions of his business quite unique. And he can take it out if the politicians and the growing social tensions do not ruin it before. Worsens these tensions that both Europe and America — all developed the world's population — are now facing the prospect of dismantling all its own social institutions and the entire social infrastructure of education, health care and pension systems — they are all bankrupt. The real crisis measures meant to abolish them. This also fall and military spending. But since modern democracy can not impose that people absolutely do not accept such measures can not be adopted because they will be the de facto method of gradual samodemontazha these institutions: no money — and no social programs. In the U.S., it's already happening, since 50% of their Social Networks funded interstate, and since they themselves can not print money, that all that they have funded contracts: locked clinics, dismissed police, schools are without teachers.
"SP": — Could this lead to similar events after the Russian 91-year?
— This may be different. For example, America is a very urgent need of sight of the enemy. When the emperor Krugman (Nobel Prize in Economics 2008 — ca. "JV") states that in order to get out of the economic crisis, the U.S. needs an analogue of the second world war, we must realize that in order to obtain an economic counterpart, you need to first here and there to find a physical one. And Krugman is absolutely right, if you remember that stateliness of Depression America led war. Outside the enemy — it is a very good tool of mobilization. Of Bin Laden has been squeezed out can be written off. Now you can try out the Iranians do nightmare and horror. From Russia to make it difficult — it is clear that it is on any adventure is not capable. From Chinese to do is simple, but the problem is that the Chinese are a very fundamental part of the U.S. economy and business: it is very hard to run into a tool assembly plant. It's like break into your house and smash the kitchen and dining room — something not very appropriate, though, and hunting. In other words, as it were terrible, but it is your own.
"SP": — But the Iranians and the Syrians like and "terrible", and not "theirs."
— On Iran, the degree of adventure while prohibitive, although, naturally, they would be very willing to deal with it. But while all this is propaganda in nature, although the criteria rise turbulence appears very high degree of unpredictability. As for Syria, I do not know — there is currently trying to bring the war to the level of plain-clothes collapse of the country.
Not only America, all coming out of the global crisis through war. In order to bring the latest technology to the level of mass use, requires extra-economic force that is usually associated with war as a municipal expenditures committed under the influence of a direct threat survival. Lofty Depression began in 1929, and until 1941 no signs of getting out of it was not.
"SP": — On this background looks alarmingly that by 2015, Americans will complete a missile defense system around us.
— We need to realize that today's world there is, as the principle of mutual assured destruction. These are the characteristics that underpin our "reset" in relations with the United States. If we decide adequate efforts to counter the construction of missile defense, it is maintained, and for this you need a lot to do. But there is one thing: America toiling in their own war effort, because maybe she did not get to realize their own plan.
"SP": — There is a possibility that Barack Obama in the upcoming election is not re-elected. In that case, what will be the fate of the "reset" policy?
— There is no reboot, and what could be the fate of what is not? We have gained a decision on such a complex issue as our entry into the WTO. We even had to experience the promise to repeal the Jackson-Vanik amendment (Amendment 1974 to the U.S. Trade Act, which limits trade with the countries of the socialist bloc. Keeps the action in respect of the Russian Federation — a comment. "JV") — will be able to provide for themselves? And on defense, we do say that the negotiations have reached a dead end. The problem lies elsewhere: it seems that Obama is very useful to be attributed to him social failure. He was seen by all as a candidate baseman antiisteblishment. Because the return of the Republicans seem early, and this contributes to the current system of selection of the party, which knocks out the race of the stronger candidates.
"SP": — What will happen to our economy 3 years after the entry into the WTO?
— Theme of the WTO so irrelevant that upsets me more stupid hype about this entry than fact. WTO membership is a promise of non-use of the methods of protection of the domestic market, which our homeland would apply if it were not entered into this company. The current crisis — a crisis of the whole philosophy that is behind the WTO. It is a crisis of unlim
ited, very deregulated free trade. And what's the point going out there to join? It's like the plague start or join the cholera. That's the whole world in cholera, and we did not have, let us in the end, to enter!
"SP ": — A 3 years 'patient' is dead?
— No, there is very longish periods of transition. For the characteristics of regulation that our government found it necessary to fight off here and there 10 years, 5 years in some places. And there are already "either Shah dies, or donkey will die." In fact we already have at the moment the level of protection of the market as a whole is very small. In addition, within the framework of WTO is amazing to protectionism, but in several other ways. We know that works are "steel war" trade war over other products. In the end, we have a very compelling tool such as a friend Onishchenko, which is not subject to any WTO as a "champion of purity." Because Onishchenko impossible to cancel any WTO.
— There is still one thing that we missed. It's an unparalleled level and speed of technological progress. In particular in the field of computer technology, robotics, etc. Sseychas China is superkonkurentosposobnoy state because of a cheap labor force, which, by the way, is becoming more expensive. But at a time when the main processes will be completely robotized who will need the Chinese? And what will be the difference, where some labor costs?
It is also associated with the control over society. If you have any unusual technical advances applied to the growth of social tension, you can wait for an escalation of tools and forms of violence. This can damage the system and the global containment, because it may be a situation where an instrument of mass destruction would be no one needed and useless in the face of new technologies. For example, the English futurists scare individually programmable bullets, Why must "rub" of all, if you can destroy just the one you choose.
Now the existing social system is one hundred percent is the product of the current economic order, and if the mode is changed, this social system simply does not work.