Mikhail Leontiev: The geopolitical breaking

Mikhail Leontiev: The geopolitical breaking"Middle East Crisis" — a phrase so stable over the last 70 years that even somehow sounds vulgar. I, too, the main theme for the event! Despite the fact that Large Neighbor East all the time — a geopolitical power, both literally and figuratively, rod, which revolves around the big game. Either hitherto revolved.

It is that of the main puzzle that different players have tried to gather in various locations to fail, as always tore each other apart. Until now, the debate on the Middle East conflict could be considered a lot of talkers or certain professionals interested in collecting and sorting out this puzzle. Who specifically Near East is an indicator of the global changes in the world order, which generate a global crisis.

Geopolitics leaving in the past economic system — is geopolitics first oil. And the aforesaid region, of course — the core of geopolitics. Why bet at least some small player in the region increased by orders of magnitude. Hence the assemblage of failed or nedosostoyavshihsya countries, movements, groups, sects and gangs who buy incongruous scale value in politics. What will happen to all these countries and people, if their scope and value as the real and physical discounted for the order? That's exactly the process we will follow. That's exactly the process and tied all of the innovations we are interested in the region and beyond.

Geopolitics of oil (in the broad sense of hydrocarbons) comes to an end. The end of this does not come slowly and sadly, and quite hysterical. While prices for hydrocarbons beating nominal records, even though our budget is clear that $ 100 a barrel now and 10 years ago — is quite different $ 100. A $ 20 per barrel after 5 years — it will be completely wrong $ 20, which in the early 90's. This will mean that oil and gas are converted into a completely worthless public resource. And they will be converted into it. Global shale revolution is not the subject of this main theme, but it is, of course, sets the context of what is happening in the region. And with respect to the first head thereto player — America.

The priority of a fully object to paranoia American geopolitical interests in the region is rapidly converted their periphery. The fact that it was impossible to imagine for yourself 5 years ago, is committed to the eyes. And the second aspect of the process — this is what happens to own a major player — America. On the one hand, this is the traditional picture of the loss of dominant way of leaving their own forces and their own unchallenged dominance. This is the traditional picture of the end of the cycle: at the peak of the global dominance, when the limits of physical expansion achieved, the expansion goes into the virtual form. In other words, unlimited emission begins. It creates the illusion of a lack of real constraints in general: you can borrow as much as you want for free, so as to give you free. You can bring any war and establish at least some order you wish to be where you wish. And this situation is perceived as a never-ending, and a world order, and this is also seen as geopolitics endless. Nice illustration — the era of George W. Bush — a utopia of the New Near East. In fact, the full occupation of the geopolitical world is flat diamond — the Gulf. The only thing missing Iran. It, in fact, is not enough. And from all the South American anti-Iran hysteria.

But there is something broke, who would have to use your loaf! Debt, which was felt as an indicator of greatness, suddenly felt as a burden and level threat. Bush's "war order" as heartfelt as a burden and a threat. Samples keep things a little blood, "controlled chaos" quickly turn into unmanageable chaos. With all of this for Obama's administration, not without a certain contact with reality, it is increasingly evident that all these Huge efforts useless. America, to set itself realistic goal to achieve complete energy self-sufficiency in the medium term, can not be unaware that the burden of geopolitical dominance in the Middle East Bolshennom unbearably painful and stupid. In fact, it is one of the signs that the process of technological change and socio-economic eras America not "will order live long", and has a chance to remain one of the favorites for the world to come.

We have already mentioned that the gradual move to an adequate understanding of Obama's America's own position and abilities led to the fact that for the first time in decades, with the U.S. can agree on something. And she's willing to negotiate. You can negotiate on managing chaos, precisely local chaos, in other words, the freezing of conflicts. And to negotiate one can Only with real opponents. From satellites to negotiate nothing and no reason.

Of particular interest to us in this context is a short article Thierry Meyssan (page 28, the creator is going to come back to the topic in a more expanded form.) Meyssan — specific antimondialist, conspiracy theorists and sometimes visionary — with a jeweler's precision caught a fact that we are on our nekonspirologicheskom level calculated logically. America is slowly unfolding, expanding and breaking all existing geo-political unit. It's such a geopolitical breaking where the line breaks, chips and landslides passes through the Greater Middle specifically East. Then break down the country, coalitions, alliances. The local movements, sects, factions rapidly changing political roof so that they sometimes do not even have time for it to follow. Read any of the parameters coming here very cautiously, still only just begun. You can imagine for yourself, for example, what will happen with today's flood-monarchies, just jerks of surplus assets and capabilities at the absolute legitimacy of simple flaws? What happens if you suddenly run out of oil money. And they shall be robbed. And America walks away, leaving their former clientele face to face with the people all these years she served the culture. Again, I repeat, to draw the contours of the future at such a turn of world order rather silly. But there's a banal news event are such that we are likely to get in our lifetime to behold that which is perfect just could — rightly deserved punishment.

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