Either do not touch or go to the end (Latin)
In recent years, we often hear from politicians to the term "multi-polar world", understood as we want and the future world order. Extensively and complementarily, as a method of facing the world community problems and challenges that sounded this theme at the last World Economic Forum in Davos. Meanwhile, a special awareness of the nature of the world order itself does not observed, neither we nor abroad, and awareness of the inevitable consequences which will result in geopolitical multipolarity, not quite.
Meanwhile, a significant part of their poslerimskoy Stories world lived concretely in this multi-polar condition, because no need to theorize superfluous to understand the nature and consequences of such model of the world. She is not new to human civilization. We had the good fortune to follow such a world for more than a thousand years. Moreover, almost all the history of our country can be realized only in the context of finding our real place in a complex full of a multipolar world. In this regard, the Creator had a desire to briefly recall at least the most common generic features of a multi-polar world order and the main consequences of such an international organization method of life for the population of the earth and of our country.
In the most general form of a multi-polar world — international configuration, where the world is divided into spheres of influence between the majestic powers, and none of the centers of power is not in the state without the help of others to impose their will in a foreign field effects without the creation of a broad coalition of forces. The latter means, usually a long-term coalition war for spheres of influence. Other than military methods to change the volume of a sphere of its own impact in this world order does not exist. Countries in such a system are divided into majestic power (Empire, centers of power — choose the taste of the synonyms) that are donors (donors) sovereignty and security for small and medium-sized countries — recipients of this security. Neutrality in a similar system is not feasible for the "free choice" of the country and is likely only when there is no consensus of enthusiasm on the part of the majestic powers in this area — either by their agreement, in the spirit of the division of spheres of influence, including the agreed buffer zone.
The prevailing perception that multipolarity is some contrast to imperialism dictates that it destroys imperialism — is fundamentally wrong. Multipolarity, dissolving of old imperialism standard twentieth century crystallizes a lot of new centers of imperialism around the world, ranging from major global players and finishing with a mini-empires in the recesses of the global political arena, making that imperialism is the main, and perhaps the only form of organization of international society, transforming imperialism in the complete method of political cooperation between states and peoples.
WEC competition and the concept of hard power
Not so long ago, I wrote that the "multipolar world in the implementation of capitalism … better adapted to the economic plunder of the Third World than unilateralism … In addition, the "multipolar world" swiftly and confidently lead the world's population to the tragic World War II "(**)
Such constructive approval obviously require some justification. Prerequisites of such a multipolar world consequences for world order are very basic and quite ineradicable nature. A multipolar world implies a constant sharp political economic and military konkurentnst (SEW-competition) of the main global centers of power, each of which has its own particular area of impact. This special kind of competitiveness, and markedly different from that to which we are accustomed to in the last decade, where the alliance was based in general on the "principles", whatever that was, communism, liberalism, fascism or Islam. In a multipolar world is not so. A multipolar world — this is a composition of alliances and coalitions, where no principles, only interests. Because in a multipolar world quite likely songs that still hard to imagine being on the basis of the post-war world of luggage, bipolar, for example, a joint military operation of the Russian Federation and the German section of Ukraine or Poland, or smooth military coalition of the Russian Federation and Turkey. This optional subjects clearly and probable right back unions, you just need to realize that in a multipolar configuration of all such previously infeasible compositions become the order of the day or under discussion, where at least some Tehran or Pyongyang Tbilisi to the same extent as may be the enemy and ally — without any change mode, simply by virtue of the current alignment of the foreign solitaire. Here we should distinguish two fundamental incident.
In-1's, a determining influence on the safety of powers in the world has such a loyal coalition allies — the majestic powers, and it can not be done "forever", and should be constantly re-format to the current tasks. Loyal ally in a multi-polar world — is silly ally, and will eventually be punished for this loyalty. The lessons taught by the Entente allies for Russia during the First World War should not be forgotten ever. A multipolar world opens up for the first hand the real powers allied job fair, where a nearly any song, and it is fundamentally opposed it from the world of one-and bipolar, where a political combinatorics greatly limited.
In-2, the imperial center is more excellent organizing system of its own satellites, is the decisive competitive advantage over those who are building their least good. Economic competition in a multi-polar world has a chance to rapidly degenerate into a competition for the size of the footprint and the right to plant there an economic model profitable metropolis. Obviously, this implies over-militarization of the centers of world imperialism, which means dignity "mobilization of the economy" over the free economy and the heavy exposure over Myagenko. Investment in the armed forces and military technologies are no longer spotless costs and become one of the more profitable methods of investing capital for the imperial center. The Army and Navy are in such a system the primary "means of production". In a multipolar world state defense and security become the main task of the metropolis, from which all others derive stability — and the financial, political and social. In general, the transition to multipolarity in international practice — is imminent replacement of the concept of force myagenkoy («soft power») on the concept of hard power («hard power»), a return to direct military intervention instead of "color revolutions", the competition for spheres of influence instead of the volume of free competition of open national economies. If the hand of the sold aircraft between, say, Boeing, Airbus and UAC is determined almost exclusively zone size full military and political influence — that fight and competitiveness will be concentrated in the area of war and politics, with the size of the zone, not in the economic field. Obviously, the main direction of technological progress with all this inevitably shifts to military developments, which are donors of new technologies throughout the economy.
Also benefit under such models will get someone who can design a lushe of rivals "enemy image" unsafe for the rest of the world population, and particularl
y unsafe for its own people and allies to demonize the country opposing the "axis of evil" that will enable him to better use resources of its own satellites for its own imperial position inside the zone of influence and its own weight in the world. In this sense, the ideological confrontation of powers confrontation thoughts in a multipolar world is on the second place after their military competition, pushing the economy actually on the third plan. The economy is becoming a regular feature on the size of the zone of military and political influence, and not vice versa, as is often the case now, in nedopolyarizovannom world. In a certain sense, one can say that the imperial ideology in the multipolar world of the XXI century to play the same civilizational role separation, what are the religious ideology played Middle Ages, the role of the cultural marker that separates the property from strangers, right from wrong and unacceptable from acceptable.
Right idea Huntington (***), to isolate eight major civilizations, a clash that will determine the kind of XXI century should be supplemented by a significant refinement: they civilizational differences in a multipolar world will be manifested at the level of global politics only as mediated by the huge imperial political style, as a community that either another successful, unifying imperial ideology. No differences among civilizations in the multi-polar world is not fertilized ideology one way or another majestic powers did not have a chance to determine the fate of the world. In the unlikely event the consequences of at least some "clash of civilizations" would not go beyond burning cars in Paris and calculation of losses of insurance companies. Also, in the midst of the isolation of Huntington's eight civilizations are at least five or six can be presented in a multipolar world with more than one rival power center. This is a fundamental event, and it should involve in any long-term forecasting. We also note in passing that his skepticism about the prospects of a black African civilization is relevant only in the case if you do not take into account the possibility of the emergence of new centers of attraction such civilization in the South American mainland and the Latin-African fusion of cultures.
As unipolar and bipolar world free from the usual temptations of colonialism, but for different reasons. In the model of a unipolar world imperial position of one center of power is not in question, and the level of exploitation of the rest of the world can be reduced to moderate quantities — without worrying about the consequences of such liberalism. This world is not so hard to "give to Caesar Caesar's." For the bipolar system is generally characterized sponsored affairs in the economy between the imperial center and the periphery. In the bipolar world, the type of the second half of the twentieth century a significant robbery allies becomes quite feasible, because the risk that this will change the orientation of an ally to become unacceptably high. For the bipolar model is characterized by faster flow of capital from the metropolis to the colony, "the financial and economic assistance" allies, if their operation and robbery. In the bipolar world model also become impracticable to maintain the traditional colonial system — because the unpleasant side here will head a vast global anti-colonial movement — and we beheld firsthand how this works in the period after the war, as the collapsing global colonial system as a natural course of history events generated by the bipolar system separates from one of the dominant systems (first Western colonial project), the country with the state in favor of the socialist project.
Traditional multi-polar world where no one has decisive advantages alone, and can hold his line only in coalition with other centers of power — it's a different system. In this system, a small country, people can only choose what power center will use them to build up their own military and economic potential — and that's the best they can, and almost always are deprived of that choice. Successfully lead the struggle of small nations "for freedom" in this system fails to anybody, because resources are separate centers of power will not be comparable with the total resources of all the other imperial centers, which, of course, will merge itself against a common threat. An example of such combination of diverse forces against a common enemy, we can follow up at all so long ago, the first zero in the midst of becoming a so-called international coalition against terrorism — which, of course, is part of the national liberation movement — as long as different geopolitical interests of its members parted on different sides of the political ring. In general, the process of the collapse of the coalition is still far from complete.
The imperial scale: a multi-polar world system as tetrazonnaya
Very important for practical politics is to that of the first eye academic question about the logical structure of a multi-polar world order.
Is a natural division of the multi-polar world into four geopolitical zones. Logical, functional structure of such a multipolar world can be found as tetrazonnoe — if we take the definition of a base number of Greek numerals. This area of the imperial center (mono-zone), the area of satellites (di-zone) buffer zone of states (three-zone, in which is equal to the struggle for influence between the various centers of power), and tetra-peripheral zone, which does not represent the enthusiasm for the major players. Faithful geopolitical choice state strategy begins with proper positioning of the current and want to place this power in the world system tetrazonnoy. Incorrect definition of their current, and we want the future position of the government leads to the inevitable collapse of foreign policy, thus causing serious consequences both underestimation and overestimation of their own place in the hierarchy tetrazonnoy. Recently, we can follow the example of the RF-90s, when it understated tier self-esteem (in practice from "Empire" or the "center of power" to the level of the peripheral powers, with mono-to tetra-level) has led to a serious foreign policy consequences. Yeltsin-eminent concept Kozyrevsky Foreign Ministry about that "the Russian Federation has no enemies" — a direct, though not progovorennoe consequence of positioning the country as a specific peripheral countries that are not on its own containment area, or whose actual fundamental interests, and accordingly does not require the creation of their own particular area impact of Dyson. The fact that almost the true fundamental interests of other powers existed and successfully implemented, resulted in this period is not the idea of returning to the position of the imperial center and supporters stepped positioning the country as a full satellite of the United States and the West, "the interests which will allow to integrate Russia into the world community." Virtually all of the foreign policy process 90 — it is a struggle concept of the satellite countries and the United States the concept of peripheral power "which has no enemies." It is clear that the samples of the Russian Federation and its allies maintain exposure within the scope of such policies seemed sorry and were initially doomed.
This error resulted in the positioning of the late 90's to the weary and the inevitable consequences: the actual international isolation of the country and the loss of almost all real and possible, and military and political allies of, which make sense only as allies of the imperial center of power, which able to ensure their safety and protect their rights, and quite stupid in a different situation, because the interests and security of small states is provided with all this a very different way — usually search for other external donor sovereignty and security. And a new donor sovereignty
, of course, is rapidly.
The new colonial world order — a direct consequence of multipolarity
In the twentieth century, our civilization has experienced a unique and very short period in its development, in the framework of which was the likely short-term and non-durable decolonization of the world. Recall that until the mid-twentieth century, for at least five centuries, the world existed in the traditional colonial matrix, and only the last half a century lived in the post-colonial state. It was the end of the period specified. The world, in any case, to be brand new colonization, it is inevitable geopolitical, and the question is only whether it will be a unipolar (USA — all others) or multipolar model. Recent economic actions demonstrate that a multi-polar model of the world got a good chance of be established, but that does not mean that the game is made. We are in the midst of forming a new multi-polar — and is fully colonial — world order. Fully expected and rapid yustilizatsiya international law — the dissolution of the fundamental legal norms originating in the usual way, as the consensus majestic powers, such as adjusting the principle of sovereign equality of countries, which has always been only a declaration, but in the criteria of a multipolar world would be contrary to its basic principles. There will be a frisky bringing existing international law in line with the prevailing internationally accepted practice, in which the legitimate occupation and colonization within the generally accepted dividing lines of interest will take the place of today's principles of self-determination and "non-interference in internal affairs."
The inevitable consequence of multipolarity — a return to the international practice of two-tier system of international state system, in which the full sovereignty is preserved only for the majestic powers, small nations have sovereignty only with permission of majestic powers and on certain criteria. On the other hand, the attempt on the sovereignty of small nations, as long as they are true to duty as an ally in such a system is unlikely.
One of the main grounds on which such a two-tier world order is possible to isolate power first hand is a method of empowering the country's sovereign rights. Powers of the first hand, know that right by right of the strong, the country's second-grade sovereign rights vested. Recognition of the rights of other imperial centers of power to grant sovereign rights of small countries is in a multi-polar world recognition by the global players of that power as an equal, the right has. In this sense — in the context of a multipolar world — very special and symbolic actions nedavneshnie receive the recognition of the sovereignty of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia. As such, our homeland returned the gesture to himself the sovereign rights of the highest level — and, as no one dared to oppose this direct military force, that right within the terms of the new multi-polar world now for Russia practically recognized that there would not happen at the level of rhetoric . The essence of the matter is that there has been no recognition of a pair of small countries, not much meaning in that world politics, and the return of the real, the full sovereignty of the Russian Federation itself, that the world political configuration has been crucial. Practically, at the end of the war in Georgia, we have not witnessed the proclamation of the "sovereignty of Abkhazia" and witnessed the declaration of Russia's own full sovereign rights of the higher level — as the right to be the source of sovereignty and security of small nations.
In this sense, an expression of our favorites of our commitment to a multi-polar world is strongly approve, but ask if they understand the inevitable consequences of such choices, and they counted the number of aircraft carriers, the country needs to protect such a choice. In general, the Georgian military campaign and the statements of the Russian Federation has a "zone of privileged interests," states that the night blindness 90th uniformly decreases from the eyes of politicians. These statements are correct only if they perceive a certain way: A multipolar world is to come, it is inevitable, our motherland receives military and political challenges of the XXI century, and is willing to play by the new rules, forming a zone around an extraordinary impact and protecting it at least what methods available, right up to the military . If you recognize them on the other — these words are not worth a dime.
The only real geopolitical choice which is now before us — it is a choice of the latest international legal system between the divided status of the colony and the status of the Empire. And it is a choice to make, bearing in mind that at least some such decision has a cost, and it will have to pay — one way or another.
A multipolar world as the cause of World War II
Anger and unpredictability of multipolar model spelled out in most of its matrix, the model of development, and incurable by any international arrangements, agreements or negotiations — and, by the base of the uneven development of capitalism and by konyukturnyh circumstances.
We need to realize that our current geopolitical choice — it's not a choice between good and bad old one, and the choice between naughty, one of which (colonial) is even worse. Our homeland — a few percent of the world population and a few percent of its economic potential, because at the moment we quickly the subject of world history than the demiurge. But we have a huge historical scope of the impact, allowing a rather short period of time (a year or two) to at least double our capacity, that the most constructive way to change the whole balance of power in the world. We need to realize that if the world is quite overcome the prevailing trend towards a multipolar world — and it overpowers — that our one-sided rejection of the burden of power center of the imperial burden will not change anything in the process. The danger of war will not remove it, but will add new threats. In a multipolar world can be either colonizer or colonized. This process is impartial, it is not according to the declarations and goals of good will and actions of the United Nations. We are entering a world in which most global war for spheres of influence and resources — and a series of regional wars, previous big wars — becomes almost inevitable prospect. It is in this spirit must now consider all of our economic and political solutions — such as defense reform, for example-will help them in a future major war or weaken our position.
Evaluation of the current international situation as a pre-war reverses many of the estimates of the "dangerous" and "safe", "right" and "wrong", and not just for us, and for our partners. Peaceful forecast implies a civilian protest against the "tightening the screws" — a military weather changes this assessment on the reverse. In the peaceful surroundings of the RF energy dependence of Europe, many European analysts estimated as "excessive" or even "dangerous." Revaluation of the same situation to "pre-war" changes the vector of estimates to the contrary: the highest degree of energy dependence on Russia lowers the risk of involvement of European countries in the adventure and provocation against the Russian Federation and those increases and their safety. The same applies to the so-called "NATO guarantees" of Eastern Europe — inherent in the "obligations to NATO," obviously — they can be heated to someone soul in peace time, but in time of war may reincarnate in a few hours every country in the hot theater, including nuclear, to draw the country into a war without the consent of not only their people, and their governments, by conventional logic of war.
In the same vein, from the standpoint of improving the future of the peace-controlled area power by mil
itary means — is interpreted as steps from peace to war. From the standpoint of military projection — is, on the contrary, the path to peace, a method, an attempt by the creation of the security buffer zone, raising military forces to protect the people from the threats of war, including those people who are the object of such section or conquest. Conquered — is saved. This is the fate of the small people in a multi-polar system, and it does not change the political voodoo drums and dancing to the human rights and self-determination of peoples. So developing world, and no one should put a life of their own people under this ice rink. According to another — someone will have to later long and thoughtfully chewed own pink tie.
Global War: overcome the one who wanders from the scrum
I would venture to imagine that the greatest advantages of this future war will the party that everyone will come later in the war. She, with the highest probability, and it will be a winner — even if you have never uncover the gun. Since the creation of the global configuration that allows a specific delay the accession of Russia into the war by the coalition fold increase in power and the creation of buffer zones border — fighting acts in public, as the experience of past wars, and can not kick around on the metropolitan area — is the main foreign policy priority. It is clear that "going to war" — a multi-stakeholder process, we can not go to war if you were attacked, there is also that of the level and nature of external threats, followed by entry into the war become quite imminent. But the geopolitical configuration that enables us to delay or bring the inevitable time of the entry of the country into a huge war (and our central location in Eurasia does not leave us a chance to stay in the side), the entire configuration is composed specifically now, at the moment. Geopolitical puzzles to form his own band SEW — political, economic and military influence in the space of the former Soviet Union and a number of neighboring countries stand in a day or current agenda of mandatory.
Specifically, in the pre-war (threatened) during the configuration of the scope of any such powers, the impact will be seen as a particular threat and level the other players and end unsafe military-political conflict — the type of the Cuban missile crisis in the square — or a military strike. Essentially, for the RF range is exclusively in the, form a Russian military-political bloc at the moment, having a huge relative freedom of maneuver, or later, in time trouble, under the irresistible force of events, either directly in the military criteria under the bombs "are not regard for the victims. " But the ability for such relatively appropriate, in the spirit of the last of the Georgian company reformatting of our borderland diminish with each passing day.
In view of this, as seen from the perspective of the present Eurasian day or, quite unacceptable to postpone a radical solution to the problem in Ukraine and Crimea, the Moldovan-Transnistrian issue, the question of the final dismemberment of Georgia and blocking, the question of complete military and political repression of the competing nations of Central Asia. Also in the current agenda of the day or is entirely separate and very fundamental question of complete control over the Caspian Sea and the Caspian countries and the question of political and military alliance with Iran as a major power in the game of solitaire. The correct solution of the southern issue will have full control of in the Caspian Sea basin, committing military alliance with Iran and a naval base in the Gulf, it is desirable to have the larynx Ormudskogo Strait, closing half the world's oil supply.
Formation of such concrete block at the moment and just for the moment, during the confusion of the world — this is the correct "evading the fight," because in a period of threat of such acts although they will be quite imminent, but may trigger an early accession of Russia into the war — and that, if not defeat, the enormous, multi-million additional loss.
The final touch that of reformatting the post-Soviet space should be a joint command of the armed forces and the common defense space on the wide Eurasian space, incised on the strip sections of our interests with China, India and Germany. The interests of other players do not have to be taken into account. The countries that will resist a similar decision of the main post-Soviet tasks have to be broken up violently — with the implementation of its own internal contradictions and the same forces on the model of the dismemberment of Georgia — and they are forced to have the remains of allied relations. The unity of economic space on the post-Soviet area can only occur due to the unity of place defense and military — and nothing on the other — and have to strengthen the military and political power of the newly formed unit.
In this sense, an excellent formula George Orwell's "World — this is war" takes understandable modern form: "A small war remains a big world."
The geopolitical opportunity and resources to solve such tasks without going to the hot stage of the military conflict with the United States and the West to this day there, but will be smaller and smaller as they approach the hot stage of world conflict.
History left us a very narrow little place to pick up the basic and crucial decisions. These decisions should be taken by us, come what may.