Society members: the head of analytical projects BelaPAN Alexander Klaskouski from Minsk and associate professor of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations Kirill Koktysh from Moscow.
Can the economic blockade of Belarus?
Valery Karbalevich: "Even after the CSTO summit in the Russian media have radical, even apocalyptic scenarios that supposedly will provide Moscow against Lukashenko. For example, one of which involves economic blockade, rising energy prices and other actions. How can you comment on this story? How likely is an economic blockade, especially at a time when both countries are members of the Customs Union and are preparing to create a single economic space? "
Alexander Klaskouski: "It is clear that Moscow has planted Belarus on economic diet. And it is easy to predict that this diet will be more stringent. With the new year vznimutstsa gas prices might be reduced quota for duty-free oil.
But do not think that Moscow is ripe monstrous plan to strangle Belarus bony hand of hunger. Theoretically it can be done if all the screw taps to the Belarusian economy collapsed. But then, on your doorstep Russia will focus unmanaged chaos. Does this help Russia?
On the other hand, in such a scenario, the Belarusian regime will snap, giving asymmetric response, such as the suppression of transit. And this is a blow to the image of Russia as a reliable energy supplier to Europe.
Finally, it is difficult to believe that Moscow will throw Napoleonic plans reintegrate the post-Soviet space under the roof of the Customs Union and Common Economic Space. Therefore, these scenarios should be considered as an element of information warfare and psychological pressure on the Belarusian leadership. "
Kirill Koktysh: "Russia will not make economic blockade. This scenario is excluded and unbelievable. RF simply deprive Belarus of economic subsidies. A different things. Process deprivation subsidies gradually happening. Besides the more severe conditions of oil and gas, Russia can deprive Belarus of preferences for deliveries of Belarusian goods the Russian market.
This will have serious consequences for the Belarusian economy. The problem is that the marketing of the Belarusian products on foreign markets to some extent by political factors. "
Karbalevich"The Belarusian government is considering the abolition of preferences as an economic war on the part of Russia"
The script for "Successor"?
Karbalevich"Another version — supposedly Russia aggressively pushing Lukashenko to transfer power to a successor of his surroundings. Perhaps this version came after Lukashenko arrived in Yerevan on the summit of the CSTO with his son Victor. How can you comment on that?"
Klaskouski: "This version does not hold water. Viktor Lukashenko — Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs. A summit just discussed this issue. Therefore, its presence in the delegation of the President logical. And it's funny to be considered as the successor of the bride.
In addition, if there were any plans to introduce Victor Lukashenko in the presidential campaign, he would have begun to "unwind" before. 1-2 years before the election would give the post of head of the field or something.
In any case, if Lukashenko agreed to the scenario of "Successor", he would pick a person for this role by personal loyalty. The current leader is not the same to appoint in his place a puppet of the Kremlin. And why Moscow change the flea?
And most importantly, Lukashenko does not believe that it was cornered. He exudes confidence, makes it clear that he was going to rule for a long time. Virtually all of the current war with Russia — this is a war for power. And the outcome of this battle is by no means a foregone conclusion. So what does it ahead of time will throw out the white flag? "
Koktyish: "This option is completely ruled out. Perhaps Lukashenko would like to believe in such a scenario Russia and other countries. But Moscow will not interfere in the internal affairs of Belarus.
And besides, who knows Lukashenko does not believe that he will appoint a true successor, and not a puppet. It is incredible that he actually handed over power to someone. "
That actually targets the information attack in Moscow?
Karbalevich: "As noted by my interlocutors, these scenarios are unlikely. Then what actually purpose of information attack on Moscow Belarusian leader? Or any particular problems there at all? It is simply irrational revenge for unfulfilled promises?"
Klaskouski: "I have a strong suspicion that there was no deliberate strategy for the Russian leadership is not. Ematsyynastsi After a lot of personal relations between the leaders of Belarus and Russia are very bad. Style of this information warfare can be defined Putin's words" waste them in the outhouse "Here are the movies" NTV " — this black PR, "mochilovo" no great artistic value.
Generally, if you read the materials of the Russian media in Belarus, there is an impression that the Belarusian cornfield team took top design neophyte. Because there are mistakes, lack of knowledge of the Belarusian situation. The ruling elite and the Russian expert community simply are not fluent in Belarus. For many years they lived myths about the imminent merger, which, allegedly, to seek all Belarusians. If this scheme collapsed, they were in despair, can not find my footing here.
If we talk about the purpose of information war, they are situational. First, you need to explain to Russian society, why from fraternal associations have moved to the "mochilovo." Secondly, as far as possible to sow doubt in the Belarusian elite and the electorate. Third, it is a psychological pressure on Lukashenko.
But if we talk about the effect, the two told the grandmother here. Opinion polls show that the Belarusian authorities are nicely used the conflict to gain independence rhetoric and improving the ranking of Lukashenko. "
Koktyish: "Indeed, this information war is focused on the Russian electorate. Meaning it is to explain to the population why Russia is not going to integrate with Belarus, and why it should be removed from the Russian subsidies. This kind of legitimization of divorce proceedings.
The Russian elite formed the view that the Customs Union, Moscow would be more convenient to Kazakhstan without Belarus. Russia is preparing to go on living without Belarus as an ally. And we are not talking about the game, emotions, or PR, but of a deliberate decision. "