Statements by the Belarusian government of billions of dollars in loans to be expected in the near future, have caused the opposite effect. Today at the interbank exchange for the dollar has given 8,500 rubles, and individual companies conduct transactions zvyshkurse — 10 000 rubles. Following tightened and cash sector currency dealers buying the dollar in more than 6500 rubles. Meanwhile, the National Bank keeps the official exchange rate at the level of 3145, commercial banks rekamenduyuchy not violate the upper limit of 4,500 rubles.
Doctor of Economic Sciences Boris Zheliba criticizes the financial authorities for failing to untie the knot of problems that every day are becoming less critical. According to him, while National Bank does not cease to interfere with the free kursavtvarennya, the gap between the black, but the real segment of the foreign exchange market and legal, but incapable, will only expand:
"I do not believe in any rapid normalization, since by such a course will be nothing. As you know, the black market rate of currency crossed for 6000, as it is tied to the exchange rate on the interbank market, which took a new record — more than 8,000 rubles per dollar. So in the current attempt to fix something through authorized by the National Bank rate in 4500 will not change anything — not in exchange, nor even on the market. "
Reporter"Can we expect a devaluation of the ruble in the banks? '.
"The National Bank has given the recommendation to the upper limit, but I think that in such a situation, the central bank should opt out of any upper limits, the attempt to control the processes. To finally course in the cash market was free. He then established himself within range. But it is difficult to say what kind of policies will lead, National Bank will be cutting off the tail in parts — again say that there is, for example, no more than 4800 — and yet completely. To my belief, release rate to float freely, and the market will do its work. The course has to be an equilibrium. "
Due to the recent agreements on lending to the Belarusian economy step by step from EurAsEC anti-crisis center during 2011-2013 senior management calms the public that things will improve soon. However, in recent months, such promises were many, so each new perceived with increasing caution. Moreover, according to economist Victor Tereshchenko, loans — this is not the path that will lead Belarus out of the quagmire. But the fundamental reforms that for any country — the main key to progress, from the mid-1990s and has not held:
"Modeling the elementary situation: Victor — your neighbor, he borrows money from you. One thing that I have to return the debt, the other — must return with interest. The same is true with regard to loans that Belarus won and is going to take more. So that's about it at the state level, someone says? What is surprising, to date the same "Sovetskaya Belorussia", to put it mildly, slightly savvy journalists — some of the same advice — try to curry favor, say the mantra: give loans as air need loans. Just in December, I have noticed just preparing public opinion to the need for loans. How can impose a position that pushes into slavery? This is outrageous. But the important thing is that we're going almost to the point of no return. That's what this is about. "
Analysts agree that the financial support promised by Moscow is not a charity, but is due to vested interests. According to economist Alexander Sasnou, Russian leadership is well aware that now is the opportune time to finally bend "unbending" Lukashenko:
"I think Russia will get whatever he wants, because otherwise no money will not. Therefore, we can conclude that Lukashenko agreed to certain requirements that previously worked does not agree. However, he was not given another. More than a dozen years he lived without problems, stuck to Russia rents from the ground. But so can fool. But to rebuild the economy, he could not. I could not and can not, because there is no understanding, there is no professionalism. Even his stupid ideology that does not allow to improve. And you can not say that, they say, is painted in a complete inability. At that point, it was full nyavmeka, and under this sign does not want to. "
Meanwhile, the Belarusian ruble sets new antirecord. Today on the OTC market rate of close to 9,000 rubles per dollar. According to such a course banks are willing to buy the currency on the market without exposing quotations. However, representatives of banks say they are the real deal, and 10 000, as even at that price currency is not enough. On the black market cash dollars can sell for 6500-6800 rubles. In this case, exchange offices, where there is nothing to buy is still unreal for ticks exposed to exchange rate within 4,500 rubles per dollar.