Navy estimates in foreign experts, and in fact
Efforts Russian military and political control in naval construction has not gone unnoticed. Over the past year, leading zabugornyh «naval» editions published many stories about the Russian Navy, as, perhaps, was not in the last 10 years.
More «fresh» example — the article «Again on the world stage: Russian naval power in 2013 and in the future,» published first this year in the journal «IHS Jane’s Navy International» authored by Dr. (in Russian terminology Candidate of Sciences) Lee Willet .
«Revival of the Russian Navy» — such removal did editors to the article. And in another publication — about it a bit later — takeaways and quite unique, «Russian go! — Again. » Some analysts zabugornyh our fleet, probably scares, while others try to realize — how to live with more and whether it is possible to use in their own interests.
Created articles, managing applets naval research military research department of English analytical center on defense issues (Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies — RUSI), tries to find answers to these difficult questions, and, namely, emphasizes: «The President Vladimir Putin considers the restoration of naval power as a fundamental means to strengthen Russia’s position in the midst of the coming of her surroundings and the world at large.
In 2012, two examples of active use of Russian Navy forced the Naval Command and Western politicians and ask again: Our homeland and its navy — to confrontation or cooperation is also more affordable? «
What kind of events as it is? You can think of it, that the strengthening NSNF on end, precisely, almost the end of the long years of the epic with the construction and commissioning of the brain submarine Project 955. Absolutely not.
«First, our homeland, directing operational group in the Mediterranean Sea, uses its own fleet as a show of support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and to show their own broader interests in the region — says Dr. Lee Willett. — In-2, since 2009 the Russian Navy enters all the growing contribution to the fight against piracy in the Indian Ocean. Its value is so great that task more active involvement of Russian ships in the operation now acquired for the Navy Western states more crucial. «
However, speaking about the importance of the role of in anti-piracy operations, the creator shows that part of the Russian Navy is engaged in it several times and also participates in other operations conducted by Russian fleet: «Taking into account the simultaneous sending of tugs, which was already seems to be standard practice, and taking into account the amount of available tasks, one can imagine that the number of «running» ships in the Russian Navy remains quite limited. «
But the situation around Syria creator sees as an example of «an international crisis, where national interests may not coincide, and the presence of warships of various states can make the risk of confrontation.» Namely, referring to the campaign in the Mediterranean Sea Russian naval group led by the heavy aircraft carrier «Admiral Kuznetsov Russian Union» in 2011, he stresses: «Transition Task Force in the Mediterranean Sea and passed back close to British waters, for Imperial Fleet (England ) sent his destroyers «New York» and «Liverpool» for her support. «
It is clear that support — not out of politeness, and to monitor the actions of the Russian ships. But if the West so scared little hike squadron, what will still be nedavneshnego after naval exercises in the Mediterranean Sea with the participation of forces from 3 fleets of the Russian Navy? In general, the article left, to put it mildly, not quite a positive memory.
Considered the «operation» of the Russian Navy described superficially in their assessments — over the word «probably», «may», «could be» and other talking about the shortcomings and tested clear of information. No decent analysis of contemporary Russian naval policy expert ratings Western society on this issue. No analysis of the Russian shipbuilding and applets, on the contrary, there is an error. Namely, the creator of shows: «Beginning with the» Severodvinsk «, expected to reach 5 new attack submarines of Project 885 type» Ash «. But back in 2011 representatives of USC said that after the «Severodvinsk» will be followed by at least 5 series 885M project nuclear submarines. In the past year, officially reported that the Russian Navy will replenish eight submarines of this type. Last confirmed Vladimir Putin in January 2013.
In general, more material came from the same political science or general questions relating to security and cooperation at sea than attempt to analyze trends naval policy and the construction of the Russian Navy.
More thoroughly approached this South American journal Proceedings. Truth and then not come without panic — on the cover of the March 2012 read takeaway: «Russian go! — Again. «
America took a risk
Article in Proceedings prepared keptenom (corresponds to the rank of Captain 1st rank in the Russian Navy) Thomas R. Fedyshina from Naval Institute of the United States. Referred to as the «Renaissance of the Russian fleet?» And causes more enthusiasm even as its creator one time served as a naval attache in Moscow and the object of analysis should know better.
«Specialists in naval strategy become accustomed to reports of growing might of the Chinese Navy, but in the process the report in March 2011 at a meeting of the Subcommittee on Defense of the U.S. Senate Committee on Appropriations then acting chief of naval operations (corresponds to the Navy Commander of. — V.SCH.) Adm. Gary Roughead stunned everyone by saying that «the Russian fleet on the rise again.» Several professionals have already seen that our homeland is trying again to make the dangers of the sea for the naval forces of the West, especially in light of the kind of support provided by Russian Black Sea Fleet in the Russian-Georgian armed conflict in 2008, begins his article Fedyshin captain, then leading a very exciting conclusion: «However, a more profound analysis nedavneshnih events leads to illogical conclusion: sleeping bear wakes up, but now it will melt in the least warlike and brutal form.»
Speaking of «Black horror stories» can be read in the same Proceedings for February 2011, in an article entitled «The Threat of the Russian Black Sea Fleet» or in the first issue for 2009 RUSI magazine article «The Role of the Navy in the revival of Russia.»
The article describes in detail captain Fedyshin background of rapid degradation of the Navy, stressing that «the state was unable to, and it is entirely possible, and unwilling to allocate sufficient funds for the development of its naval forces.» But since 2008, in his opinion, «the Russian navy began to signal — he is reborn,» noting, on the other hand, that «words alone are not enough … for the improvement and modernization of the Russian Armed Forces.»
Then subjecting quite detailed analysis of different Russian official documents in the field of national security in general and in the field of naval strategy and naval construction namely captain Fedyshin rightly stresses «historically subordinate status of the Navy under the Ministry of Defense of Russia.»
Similar status without inflicting on first glance direct harm development of the Russian Navy, in fact, did the Russian fleet hostage «land of thinking» that part of the military and political control of the country, who firmly believes in the onshore continental or «purpose» of. Although, if you look at the map, you can effortlessly see that this «land power» from the north and east has a maritime border in the west to the sea passes a significant portion of the state border and in the south Russian territory runs along the two seas. It remains to add that the maritime border with the North and East — it outputs to the oceans, the Arctic and the Pacific, which, according to the unanimous views of Russian and foreign experts in the XXI century will be the scene of heated political, economic, and can be fully and military contractions. And here without a navy can not do.
In general, captain Fedyshin, speaking about «Historically subordinate status» Russian Navy is not quite right. In his own for most of the more than 300-year history of the Russian navy had independent status — in the form or college, or ministry, or Commissariat — and only in the second half of the twentieth century, he «firmly» got into this most «subordinate status» . And only thanks cramped relations Commander of the Navy of the USSR Sergei Gorshkov with Leonid Brezhnev was created fleet combat capability that even the criteria 20-year period of neglect was completely sufficient for the realization of nuclear deterrence and more than or less bearable near maritime protection zone.
Even Peter Lofty realized: our country needs as a powerful army and a powerful navy. But, as pointed out by the last commander of the Russian Navy Admiral Vladimir Kuroyedov, financing Russian fleet in the period from mid-1990 to the beginning of zero’s made on the level of 12-14% of the total budget of the Russian Defense Ministry. However, even these minor funds fleet for the period 2001-2006 did not get more than 60 billion. rub. Taking into account that the north and east of the Russian Security depends almost entirely on the effective operations of the fleet to call such an attitude on the part of military and political control can only genocide.
In fact only in recent years the situation began to change for the best (not counting NSNF for which funds were always a priority). Update on the ship of the fleet and its upgrading to new standards of missiles, torpedoes, artillery, electronic and other equipment allocated significant funds. On the program from LG 2020 — about 25% of all funds for the purchase of weapons, military and special equipment (AMSE), which will impose, allow the Navy to change the role of the sly «stepdaughter» on the role of a peer state military construction and the 1st of important means of protecting state interests of Russia. In particular, those that are far from its shores.
Which? Yes take at least widening military, military-technical and economic cooperation between Russia with Latin America. Provide real support here nor fail Land Forces nor the Strategic Missile Forces, or even the Air Force or Navy. Only fleet supported by other types of the Russian Armed Forces will be able to protect the interests of Moscow in this remote region of the planet. The same can be said about the Arctic region. Only fleet, with air support on the shoulder to protect Russian interests in the Arctic. But he can do it only in this case will be systematically and progressively develop and not be «running errands» or play the role of «guinea pig.»
Quite accurately analyzing open documents in Russian maritime policy and naval strategy, Fedyshin captain ran to a narrow topic — analysis of the issues of military and naval construction. And once again confirmed the fact that Western naval experts or do not understand the «underlying trends» in the development of the Russian Navy, or on the background of the euphoria of victory in the war, and cool quickly jerked forward China pay on naval construction RF third-rate attention.
For example, the creator writes: «After 25 years of being in the construction of the lead ship (Project 955. — V.SCH.)» Yury Dolgoruky «was put into service in 2009 in St. Petersburg. Ships of this type will change outdated types SSBN Delta III and Delta IV ». Excuse me, what 25 years of construction? What commissioning in 2009, and besides, in St. Petersburg? And, finally, why suddenly missile 667BDRM (Delta IV) become obsolete?
Head of Project 955 submarine «Yury Dolgoruky» was laid on the slipway in November 1996. Its output from the workshop was held in April of 2007, and in 2009 began mooring and running tests. And, of course, not in North Palmyra. Maybe we got it wrong in translation? No. The term «commissioned», applied keptenom Fedyshina, the U.S. Navy specifically involves «entry into operation of the ship (effectives)» after all the necessary tests and other procedures.
And even more so it is unclear why suddenly the best Russian strategic missile submarine of the twentieth century, besides the one of the best in the world SLBM become «obsolete»? South American class SSBNs «Ohio» entered service in 1984-1997, respectively, for some reason are not «obsolete», and the first of them planned to write off only in 2027, but the Russian ships, the most first of which entered the battle the fleet in 1984, and the last — in 1990, means «obsolete».
Same thing about Project 885 submarines. Creator claims that the head icebreaker, «Severodvinsk», commissioned in 2010. And we did not know, thought that in 2010 it only brought out of the shop and it was launched into operation and it is not entered so far. Same thing with the frigate «Admiral Gorshkov Russian», which also turns out, commissioned. But at the time the article was published in the Proceedings even mooring tests have not begun.
No, of course, has not been canceled activities to deceive the enemy, but in such a way — it is already too much. Very amazed and passage that «priority Black Sea Fleet will be a confrontation with Georgia.» Here it is, vivid example of how some Russian «military experts» can be misleading own colleagues overseas.
Expect and monitor
What conclusions regarding the Russian Navy captain makes Fedyshin? They follow: «First, the Russian Navy is developing. Ships built noticeably more frisky pace and in more and more are adopted by the Russian Navy, and not only supplied zabugornye countries. So Admiral Roughead was right — Russian Navy is again on the rise. In-2, Our homeland relies more on its own fleet in the issue of nuclear deterrence, as the Navy has invulnerable means of retaliation — strategic missile submarines. B-3, but Russian warships projects (with the possible exception of submarines armed with cruise missiles such as «Ash») have priority confrontation with the navies of other countries and were not created for the deployment of offensive operations outside the territorial waters. Armament allowing them to operate independently and maintain cooperation with other navies, but not to throw them a call. Most of the new Russian ships — smaller than their predecessors, and were designed as a multi-purpose, and not to deal with any special problems. «
Making two correct output to intensify construction of warships for the Russian Navy and the priority of Moscow towards NSNF created somehow comes to the third conclusion, which is not consistent with the first 2 or not has nothing to do with reality. In addition, the new Russian warships in displacement indeed somewhat inferior to his predecessors in the same class. But it is — as long as, in the future Moscow wants to build destroyers and even, for a suitable course of events, carrying ships. And it is quite clear what complexes guns on Russian ships are more adapted to «cooperation» than confrontation? Maybe RCC family «Movement» or «Uranus»? And than Russian frigates, armed by the KR «Onyx», from nuclear submarines type «Ash» with the same rocket?
What did all of this, the Captain Fedyshina views should remove Western naval specialists? «More probably — he writes — that Russian warships will take part in international operations to combat piracy in the Gulf of Aden, and produce tracking South American carrier battle groups in the Pacific Ocean or the Mediterranean Sea. Such anti-piracy operation, all will be mainly carried out with the introduction of small, high-speed, stealth multipurpose ships. Growing, the presence of in the Arctic Ocean will be more related to security of global trade and oil development than with the protection of their own submarines with ballistic missiles. Russian operative groups in the Caribbean will be more help to increase the authority of the Russian Federation and international arms sales to Latin America than a danger to South American military exercises. «
Naturally, one can imagine that the South American naval experts, indeed, are so friendly (in fact true commanders seek to avoid the real battle and win without blood) and does not consider Russia as any opponent (although geopolitics has not been canceled, and on her Washington and Moscow — competitors for resources), why imply that «small, high-speed, multi-purpose ships» will only fight with the pirates, and the Northern Fleet will be more concerned with protecting fishermen and oil fields instead of the security of their strategic submarines.
But all of the above — it’s not forecast the real situation, and scoring of the actions of the Russian fleet, which Washington and Annapolis want to create. Much less that the other South American naval experts know very well what should be the role of the Navy in the history of Russia. Namely, Norman Polmar, an adviser and consultant to 3 ministers and 2-Chief of Naval Operations, U.S. Navy, in the article «Russian Navy remains strong and after 2000,» published in the March issue of the journal Proceedings of 1997, stated: «Russia — the big political, economic and military power — certainly need a navy. From the perspective of the West the main task of the Russian Navy for the period after 2000 could be:
— Coastal defense: Our homeland has extensive maritime boundary, which asks the availability of forces for the respective observation and patrolling, and as needed to prevent invasion by zabugornyh Navy;
— Strategic deterrence: strategic missile submarines are an effective means of strategic deterrence. Taking into account the high places of the Russian Federation, the combination of land-based missiles and missile submarines is good for nuclear deterrent;
— Forward presence: warships will be used to protect the Russian political and military interests in the Third World. Almost all this will be a major task for the Russian Navy’s first XXI century. In this case the focus of action is distinct from the cool period of war, where the acts in Third World countries on the periphery of the confrontation between the Russian Union and the United States. «
In this context, interest is a letter and Rear Admiral Thomas Brooks retired aimed Received Proceedings after the article the Captain Fedyshina and published in the May issue of the journal for 2012.
«Thanks for reminding keptenu Fedyshina us that the attention that we pay to China now, somehow led us to lose sight of that Russian Navy still exists as before has the forces of sea-based strategic deterrence, able to deliver a crushing nuclear kick and begins to act — even slowly and hesitantly — towards building and upgrading their own surface forces oceanic zone — wrote Rear Admiral Brooks. — In general, this is not unusual. In over Russian and Russian, and now and again Russian periods own history was ensured security of land borders, the economy was booming, and the throne was a strong ruler, Our homeland began to turn to the outside world and create a powerful ocean-going fleet. On the contrary, both on land there is a threat or a weak economy became, the fleet was reduced and reoriented to address the defensive problems …
Today … the boundaries of — in security, and its economy is strong. Nedavneshnee re-election of Vladimir Putin has provided the country a «strong king» — maybe for another 12 years. On the basis of historical experience, it means that our homeland will build ocean-going fleet. Would expect and watch! «
Here it seems to be closer to this gaze naval command U.S. «problem of the Russian fleet.» Well prepyadstviya for our leading overseas professionals are not lurking behind seven locks. So, already mentioned expert Norman Polmar in the June issue of the journal Proceedings published «Under the waves» in which analyzed the current state of the Russian Navy submarine forces. Analysis — Professor, immediately visible hand spices.
«For most of the cool war that lasted 45 years, Russian submarine force is a major factor in the political and military confrontation between the Russian Union and the United States. Periodically, averaging more than 400 submarines … Russian submarine forces dominated the minds of professionals, defining naval U.S. strategy — Norman Polmar article begins. — Now, two decades later, with a little cool after the war, Russian submarines — one of them, perhaps only a few are fully prepared — sometimes operate outside the coastal waters. And, despite the excellent plans and statements of politicians and representatives of the Navy, Russian applets on the construction of submarines and missile creation tools for them for many years behind the approved schedule. «
At the same time created quite accurately represents and why our submarine fleet and shipbuilding were underwater in this «awkward» position, causing the main problem: «the absence of close to reality pricing techniques to produce military use in shipyards, subcontractors and the Ministry of Defence; very highest tax rates in shipbuilding and the absence of the Ministry of Defence of the most experienced professionals in the field of defense technology and equipment. «
But then created a favorable view of the individual innovations applied to Russian submarines new types and material completes a very upbeat Tunes «Taking into account the experience of Russian shipyards and a large number of advanced projects submarine design bureau developed» Malachite «and» Ruby » can reasonably imagine that in the XXI century Our homeland still receive numerous and reliable submarine force. «
Noteworthy that even Norman Polmar material contains incorrect as regards the description of the technical issues, but we’re not going to consider them — no need to facilitate the work of zabugornye naval professionals. While there, a couple of mistakes we all still correct: in-1’s, submarines of Project 941 «Shark» was built at the beginning instead of four 6 pieces, and in-2, at the time of publication of the material was already clear that nuclear-powered ships of the family «Ash» until 2020 to build not 6, but at least eight. So that our staff can recommend more often included in Russian bookstores and more than painstakingly taught photo Russian submarines.
I would also like to emphasize that seriously worried Western professionals and the situation in the Arctic. This can be seen, for example, under Russia’s World Turned Upside Down (can be translated as «Russian transformed» and literally — «The world is flipped up the bottom of the Russian Federation»), U.S. Navy Lieutenant (corresponds to the rank of lieutenant-commander in the Navy of the Russian Federation — V.SCH .) Daniel T. Murphy, placed in the May issue of the Proceedings for 2012. Creator — Officer of Naval Intelligence at the time of preparation of this article was trained at the State Institute of Intelligence in Washington.
The main point is clear from the first line: «Oil, melting ice and configuration in the military and economic spheres will lead to a revision of Russian naval strategy.» With all this created stresses: «Since our true homeland announced their strategic plans for the Arctic, the U.S. intelligence community needs to better understand what it could mean for us with the operational and infrastructural point of view. We need to examine how our homeland will conduct further operations in the Arctic, where it might be to create an infrastructure for production energoelementov also realize what steps it will decide in this regard and what tools and capabilities it will use during operations and in the interests of defense. What happens if Our homeland try to avoid in this region other countries, and how it will do it? «
Assessing all the above, it should be firmly state: the West still serious about the Russian Navy and pretty «tight» stalk carried Moscow naval construction. From time to time, are even very seriously — right up to a certain panic. But you must admit, for us, this situation still better than the situation since the 2nd half of the 1990s, when in the same Proceedings articles appeared under headlines such as «The Russian fleet remains in the doldrums.»
It turns out that sonorous rhetoric Russian military and political control has paid off — we began to put it mildly, be treated with caution, and some even began to be afraid. But we know that in reality, the situation in the field of naval construction is far from flawless. Insufficient funds are spent well and a number of shipbuilding projects reincarnated into protracted, navy and shipbuilding lack of highly qualified professionals. In general, to frighten the West sonorous rhetoric — is one thing, to build ocean-going navy — completely different. The main thing — do not let yourself be «lulled» self-same rhetoric.
Vladimir Leonidovich Shcherbakov — independent military expert