UN: 90 years coming global relocation

Global warming, which in recent years has not scared just lazy, if facing the apocalypse, in a rather distant future. But the socio-economic impacts of climate change will be felt by humanity in the coming decades. According to the forecast the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations, by 2100, the average temperature on Earth could rise by several degrees, which will cause a global migration: people will be forced to leave the region in which the accommodation will be impossible.

Examples of such migration in recent years, in excess. For example, Darfur paralyzed years of drought, leaving many pastures have disappeared and many pastoralists have moved to other parts of Sudan. A similar situation occurred in Chad and the Central African Republic. Moreover, according to the scientists, the flow of immigrants from Central Asia to Russia, not only due to socio-economic reasons, but also ecological. Temperature rise in Tajikistan threatens drought and floods due to the melting of glaciers, and the lack of agricultural land in the region is felt now.

But in the future migration to become truly global, and scientists are sounding the alarm: the governments of all countries of the world must be prepared for a large displacement, or it will face catastrophic consequences. At a minimum, a social explosion. Even last year, 12 prominent climate researchers from around the world held a conference in Bellagio Center in Italy. They analyzed the experience of moving large numbers of people due to natural disasters, such as floods and earthquakes, and due to changes in infrastructure, such as the construction of dams or laying of the pipeline. Data were collected for 50 years. The researchers concluded that in the past experience of migration was mostly negative. Appropriate conditions were not provided.

For example, to create a reservoir of Kostroma in 1953-1955 gg. from the flooded area was evacuated nearly ten large villages. It should be noted that everything was done in a hurry. Many of the documents did not have time to take out of the village councils and they are gone because of what many state farm workers could then verify your work experience. Assessment of Compensation Property held incompetent. There were other violations.

"The consequences of warming will lead to a much more constant displacement than the construction of the dam. Huge number of people will need to not only transport, but also put in a new place. Often the complexity of the operation simply underestimated. It is, so to speak, of the transplant population and its culture from one place to another. This is as difficult as brain transplants "- says anthropologist Anthony Oliver-Smith of the University of Florida, which has more than 30 years of experience in the issues of forced migration.

Alexander TERENTYEV

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