No scientist can say with absolute certainty that the main cause of intense warming is anthropogenic factor — binges disaster occurred many years ago, said assistant professor of meteorology and climatology geographical Faculty Paul Toropov.
— When a weather reports from around the world into my head apocalyptic thought. In the U.S., a raging hurricane "Sandy" in South America, flooding in Vietnam storm. Please tell me this is some kind of seasonal activity, or any marked tendency to climate change, and all of these storms and the elements binges without purpose?
— I would like to reassure our students, in the sense that hurricanes, heavy monsoon rains, including freezing rain in temperate latitudes — all these phenomena, in general, normal. They were observed in the past, been observed in the historical past, and many thousands of years ago.
The question is now, of course, due to the fact that the infrastructure is quite different, the economy is more vulnerable to these phenomena, of course, more attention, more interest. In this regard, weather becomes more popular. To say that the frequency of these events is something on the order of more than, say, 100 years ago, in general, it is impossible.
On the other hand, the climate is indeed changing. Of course, does not change so dramatically, as is often said, and as is fashionable to say, but the changes are there. First of all it concerns, in terms of the negative consequences, coastal areas that are below sea level. Apocalyptic mood, I would like to dispel.
— You say that the climate is changing. It varies, so to speak, on any one line, or is it the same spiral scenario, when similar events were 100, 200 years ago, and now it's all over again, or we experience something new on the planet?
— At this point there are different points of view. You are quite right to say that these effects were observed. Moreover, it is often said that the current warming is not unique, it is very intense. This is not true.
At the same average age was warming. Approximately in XV-XVI centuries warming was more intense. Winters were very warm. Known fact that Ivan the Terrible Kazan could not take because of the Volga in the winter ice was not. Such a situation occurred.
But the specifics of modern warming really exists. It lies in the fact that the temperature is growing exponentially, that is, with some acceleration. This is attributed primarily to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, greenhouse gas emissions. There is a definite physical basis of this hypothesis, very seriously. But while it's still a hypothesis.
So far no climatologist not take responsibility to say that the current warming is completely determined by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Of course, the contribution of greenhouse gas emissions is. But just how big it is, how it is defined, this one can only speculate. Although, really, numerical climate models quite well and consistently predict the ongoing climatic changes. That is the physical basis for this hypothesis is.
— Pavel, I want to talk to you about the forecasts. And I'll start with the not very fresh news. About two weeks ago there was a loud story in Italy after the earthquake that destroyed the entire city. There was sentenced to 6 years in a group of seismologists, which are not expressly warned the authorities and the people of the coming earthquake.
How do you think it is responsible for the projections that give different scientists — seismologists, climatologists, meteorologists? Could it be responsible, at least, the administrative? I'm not talking about the criminal, because maybe it's too tough. What do you think about this?
— The question is very interesting. Seismologists for me to answer difficult. But I would still stand up for fellow scientists. Although I am not an expert, not a geologist, but I must say that the outlook of the earthquake — this is, generally, a thing in itself. As I understand it, they have there with this problem, which is probably why, they really did not need to use such tough measures. Although again, I still do not geologist and seismologist, they know better, perhaps, correct — it is hard to say.
As for meteorology, one needs a very clear distinction between what we expect and for how long. If we talk about long-term outcomes, of course, such sanctions would be unthinkable. Modern science is physically reasonable weather forecast for more than 5-7 days, can not give. Why blame Hydrometeorological for what failed with the forecast of the summer or winter, or something like that, in general, is impossible, because seasonal forecasts in any case very approximate.
As for short-term forecasts, the situation is different. I'll even give you an example. Aviation weather forecasters, who serves aviation, are very real, not even administrative, and criminal liability. If the case of a flight accident, it first checks the weather forecasters, how well they gave the prognosis and diagnosis of the synoptic situation. And there were times when attracted.
Accordingly, if the weather forecasters again to give bad day with the forecast is something wrong … For example, on the eve of perfectly predicted freezing rain. When the forecast is bad, then sanctions, in principle, possible.
But we need to very clearly see, it all depends on the situation. There are situations, really unpredictable, and there needs expert judgment. Indiscriminately, of course, you can not judge people. And when the situation is quite typical, then you can draw, of course.
Interviewed Nikolai Semyonov — the radio "Voice of Russia"
Category: Natural disasters and the environment