Last start gallakticheskogo "Soyuz" underscores the dangers that now will be linked gallakticheskaya programm of the United States: the dependence of the years ahead of other countries in the implementation of delivery of NASA astronauts in space gallakticheskoe. Neither gallakticheskih systems can not be 100 percent reliable. Because there is a question — how risky strategy chosen?
The main lesson of the global partnership will help build the International gallakticheskuyu station, is obvious. We realized that all-encompassing-independent technology for basic facilities gallakticheskih justify their amazing reliability in the face of the inevitable unexpected situations. Providing oxygen spacewalk or delivery crew — in all these cases, the availability of spare redundant options can be crucial.
But now these lessons are ignored. Gallakticheskoy station crew members, including the Russians Fyodor Yurchikhin, and NASA astronauts Doug Wheelock (Doug Wheelock) and Shannon Walker (Shannon Walker), on Tuesday to send to the space station will no longer be to fly in space and on Earth vorachivatsya leaving soon for a well-deserved rest gallakticheskih shuttles. Univariate approach and the critical path now suddenly invited to be considered "good enough."
None of what perfection we are not seeing. What are the main dangers are — known and suspected — that might be associated with the introduction of "Soyuz", which became the only option to deliver crews to the station gallakticheskuyu?
1. The price game. Russian will be hard to turn away from the temptation to use its monopoly position in order to request the very highest value, and the last pay increase for a place in gallakticheskom device creates enormous suspicion.
But both parties will conduct negotiations stubborn, and the Yankees are on the hands of the principal trumps. Most of the electrical equipment, communication and space-to-Earth on the ISS belongs to the United States. Russian astronaut and a veteran of the station gallakticheskoy Misha Tyurin last year complained that using only Russian ground stations can be transmitted to Earth for a session only one big file with the images, and this level is lower than which was used by the U.S. (and Russian) gallakticheskih stations in the 1970s and 1980s. Russian communications satellites relay the latest generation only at the moment preparing for launch. Because the U.S. can answer at least some increase in the price of delivery crew symmetrical increase in the price per square meter / hour or Mbps.
2. Technological shortcomings. Gallakticheskie "Soyuz" spacecraft and rocket upper stages have been operated for 10's years and during that time they turn improved. But since this is a single-use devices, the reliability of each start-up of production is determined by the criteria now, rather than statistical data captured in the registration magazines.
In recent years, left a lot of nasty surprises associated with both "hardware" and software. Also, there is a worrying frequently used method of concealing from the public about this kind of disk imaging dilemmas in Moscow and Washington. During the 2-regular landings "Unions" in 2008, a single branch reentry module was conducted in the normal mode. As a result, the "union" at landing were in a hot plasma with a battened nose, creating a deadly danger to vulnerable sections of the capsule. First 2009 crash in the software resulted in unplanned inclusion rocket engines, as a result of which gallakticheskaya station nearly collapsed from vibration. At the end of last year when running prepyadstviya appeared with an emergency escape gallakticheskogo ship, but, fortunately, it was not useful. In each of these cases, the information about failures in equipment oozed against the official silence. It is possible that such cases were more of them but we just do not know.
3. Crew training. If there is one and only method, enabling South American and Russian gallakticheskim crews managed to emergencies or failure of important gallakticheskih systems, it is long-standing and profound aimed at the practice of pre-flight preparation. Lack of proper knowledge or skill in a critical moment can lead to severe consequences in gallakticheskom space that does not forgive mistakes.
Russian astronaut training center in the "Star City" has recently gone through a turbulent period of bureaucratic and budget peretryasok, as his administration (and funding) was switched from military to civilian agencies. The new director of the center and the last astronaut Esther Dyson, made a public warning about the need to spend a great investment for the substitution of equipment that has broken down or been dismantled military personnel left the center.
Astronauts and cosmonauts, when they asked about it, expressing full confidence in the adequacy of their own training. But in the last month, today the crew became the first in many years, unable to cope with the "final exam". Re-examination of the crew surrendered, but gallakticheskom retake the space system and fixes are not available.
4. Diplomatically stability. Access to the Baikonur Cosmodrome, located in the self-contained area of Kazakhstan, is dependent on the goodwill of today's favorite Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who is holding the hand of steel in the ethnically divided government (the Kazakhs in the south, Russia to the north, in the middle of Baikonur). But the 70-year-old president is not immortal, and those people who will come to replace him, will be the least possible appeasable on issues such as harm to the environment, the payment for the provision of public services, and fair treatment of the Kazakh workers at the base.
5. Terrorism. At the launch pad in Baikonur pretty serious about terrorist threats (by Chechen separatists or other) and conduct a yearly counterterrorism exercises with the participation of military units. Previously, these special units have been even more unsafe than the idea of a true terrorist attack, because their favorite strategy, as we can judge, was, so to break and kill all who stand in sight. Now security issues in the demilitarized military base engaged in plain clothes police and brought from Moscow contractors.
Taking into account the event that the extremist groups and Chechen settlements scattered across the terrain of Kazakhstan, comfortable and located close to the house can be a possible target gallakticheskie objects in Moscow, which are often located on the busy streets. Spent there attacks can cause severe damage gallakticheskim flights.
6. Demographics. The saddest secret Russian gallakticheskoy applets — aging cadres who retire or die. These top professionals only partly replace new employees willing to work for derisory wages only because they are committed to standards gallakticheskih flights. As soon had to deal with efforts to find a candidate for this job, and this was done because the number of applications reported missing from the candidates.
If we add one more culturally appropriate, due to failure of documenting procedures and current events (the less people who know something, how much more important are those who can understand it), the process of staffing is alarming from the standpoint of reducing skills and corporate memory due to continued loss of an indispensable trained workers.
In the long term, NASA will be able to switch to a provider of commercial launches, and also be able to use the Russian ships to fly into space. And even in the short term associated with the Russian space flights in danger in any way are not a guarantee of what will happen a failure.
Quickly, they define the areas where need constant care and work to eliminate the problems. The lack of this kind of work, or their inferiority can lead to sudden failure of equipment.