February 13.In August, Hurricane "Irene" swept through the Caribbean and the eastern United States, leaving a broad band of the ruins. Rearing them water rolled over the dam, flooding the coastal and inland areas. Many said it was the most devastating flood of the century.
However, researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Princeton University (both — the U.S.) found that climate change will fall in such a storm to land more frequently — every 3-20 years. But floods occurring today "every five centuries," will occur every 25-240 years.
So build embankments and dams higher, otherwise they will fill with enviable regularity.
To simulate present and future storm threat in the vicinity of New York researchers combined four climate models with a specific model of a hurricane. In a 200-kilometer radius Battery Park, located at the southern tip of Manhattan, has been played 45 thousand storms.
Studied two scenarios — "current conditions" (climatic parameters specific to 1981-2000) and the "climate of the future" (forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the years 2081-2100 with the condition of moderate rates of carbon dioxide emissions).
Today the "storm the century" for New York City means flooding about two meters. About once in 500 years, the region covers a three-meter water. Worst flooding in New York, was registered in 1821 — 3,2 m Note that the piers of Manhattan have only one and a half meters in height.
The study is published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
The Source: Massachusetts Institute of Technology