Nagorno-Karabakh: War will not be

Almost quarter of a century back, at the end of February, there have been tragic action in Sumgait. 30 one Armenian died in the mayhem hosted by Azerbaijani nationalists, says the South American journalist Carol Williams ("Los Angeles Times"). She believes that the source of the "seething hatred" in the 2nd largest Azerbaijani town was the "domination" of the Armenians in the "remote and strategic insignificance of Nagorno-Karabakh." Later came the war. In 1991-94. it became the displacement of over a million people. It killed more than 30 thousand people.

Nagorno-Karabakh: War will not be

What's all the same now?

Chaotic fire snipers zalegshih in the trenches behind sandbags, a controversial line that runs along the area of Nagorno-Karabakh, the people of the region is something of a commonplace. People here are used to shooting — 19 years after the signing of the ceasefire agreement in 1994.

But in the near future the situation seems to be the creator, markedly worse. The journalist says that the two sides as if their sights on the "unfreezing" of an old conflict and rely on "landslide victory" in a terrible armed confrontation.

What was the premise of changing moods of the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides? In-1's, said the journalist, approaching a quarter-century date, which coincides, in-2, with the presidential election in Armenia. B-3, the resettlement of Armenian refugees from Syria — just for the disputed area. All this fuels the "boil resentment" and gives rise to fear that is about to begin a major new armed conflict.

The problem of this long conflict professionals explained that none of the parties is not satisfied with the international recognition that the enclave is a territory of Azerbaijan, but under Armenian control. No one — neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan — do not go into a protracted conflict even symbolic concessions. All samples negotiations reach an impasse.

Carol Williams believes that, if you look at the map of the Caucasus region, you can get an idea of manipulating Joseph Stalin — which, in fact, is the father of the conflict, the creator of his roots. After all, the Armenians were able to prevent the brutal attacks of the Persians, Turks, and Russian in for almost 2-1000 lety, and yet their autonomous enclave was incorporated by Stalin in the Russian Socialist Republic of Azerbaijan — after the Bolsheviks began to control the region first 1920s. Young Stalin, People's Commissar for Nationalities, held in place by the principle of "divide and rule", which allowed him to keep nationalism in check.

Ethnic resentment came out when Russian reformer Mikhail Gorbachev "opened Pandora's box" as the campaign's "perestroika and glasnost." All public failure, hidden under the carpet before, broke out.

But why are isolated, poor and far from oil Nagorno-Karabakh became so coveted piece of terrain for both sides?

Lawrence Sheets, Crisis Group Internatsionalnaya Director for the South Caucasus, said that Nagorno-Karabakh — a strategic area where contact Europe and Asia. According to Sheets, it's indescribable principal trade route not only for energy, but for navigation and other purposes. Azerbaijan and Armenia are at war for more than 20 years, said the expert, and at the moment there ceased fire, but if conflict break out again on a larger scale, fully may start a regional war that would spread to regional powers.

The journalist notes that South American oil companies have significant finansovlozheniya in Azerbaijan, but also have basic "emotional" connection with Armenia because many representatives of the Armenians living in the moment in the United States, and they value his ancestral home.

As for the Russian Federation, it is in need of regional peace, so relaxed produce commercial and naval operations in the Caspian and Black Seas.

Expand the matter to the economic relations between Baku and Tehran — and you get another 1st probable members of the armed conflict.

And yet here, and Turkey. This country is finally expressed its willingness to hold talks on the restoration of relations with Armenia after nearly a century break. But Ankara insists that Armenia renounced the disputed enclave — and as a preparatory conditions.

What can benefit Armenians or Azeris from inciting conflict? Journalism writes that according to the views of adekvatnomyslyaschih observers, absolutely nothing. She also notes that the parties to the dispute are often bordered on hysteria.

For example, not so long ago, the official dealer of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan Elman Abdullayev accused Armenia of "provocations" in addressing the issue of Armenian refugees who migrated from Syria to Nagorno-Karabakh. In his view, this is an attempt to "change the demographic situation in the region."

Robert Avetisyan, unchanging representative of Nagorno-Karabakh enclave diplomatic mission in Washington, denounced the claims as an attempt to politicize the Azerbaijani humanitarian campaign to save. After all Armenians fled the bombing of Aleppo. Lives there at the moment about 80,000 ethnic Armenians. Thousands of Armenia appealed to for help, and only about three 10-s families settled in Nagorno-Karabakh, Avetisyan said.

By Carol Williams article, you can add the fact that Azerbaijan threatens to shoot down civilian aircraft bound for Artsakh. The fact is that not so long ago, the director of the Azerbaijan State Administration of civilian aviation Arif Mammadov said, Azerbaijan will destroy aircraft, to land at the airport in Stepanakert. Azerbaijan side even complained to the International Group of civilian aviation. "We were told that our air space over Karabakh is closed. According to the law "On the Air", is scheduled physical destruction of aircraft, land on the territory, "- said the emperor Mammadov.

A member of the Armenian delegation to PACE Naira Zohrabyan sent a note Commissioner for Human Rights, at the risk of the Azerbaijani side to shoot down civilian aircraft. Thomas Hammarberg said that such statements of concern.

On the same subject made and David Babayan, Head of the Information Department of the Office of the Head of the NKR President: "If Azerbaijan starts to shoot down civilian aircraft, it will only mean one thing — the resumption of hostilities." According to him, Azerbaijan will do if such a step, it will not remain unanswered.

Journalists asked Babayan, can be so, that will not start the Artsakh airport. Babayan said that the work of the airport is of fundamental importance for the Republic of Nagorno Karabakh, and it will never give up its own intentions. At the same time, David Babayan stressed that Artsakh can ensure the safety of its own air space.

Now the Minister of Defence of the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh Movses Hakobyan states: The situation on the ground band of the Armed Forces of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and Azerbaijan to the beginning of the year has not changed. He also noted the tension that has arisen because of the intention to use the NKR Stepanakert airport. At the same time the minister stressed that the Karabakh armed forces are ready to respond to at least some encroachment: "The situation is under control. No need to hesitate: Armed with honor all tasks. &quo
t;

Armenian political scientist Hrant Melik-Shahnazaryan, commenting on the likely course of events related to the Karabakh conflict at the January press conference, expressed his outlook, according to which the progress in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict is unrealistic. According to the analyst, the next steps will be justified not so much progress in the negotiations, as a new step in the political arena, Armenia and Azerbaijan. The main events of the scientist referred to presidential elections that will take place in the coming year, both in Armenia and Azerbaijan. They are working on possible scenarios.

The analyst said that "the Aliyev regime" has once again attempt a means of Karabakh conflict to distract public attention from domestic problems. Hrant Melik-Shanhnazaryan noted that management is aware of Azerbaijan that "inflating" the idea of external danger, and all this while having a huge number of domestic and of society's problems, it can consolidate society around the government that comfortably hold on to power, but at the same time give rise to tensions over difficulties .

As for the Armenian side, the clear, that the armed forces of Armenia January 25 and 26 units of fire on positions of Azerbaijani Army in four areas: Shikhlar nearby villages of Aghdam, Tapgaragoyunlu Goranboy, Khojavend Kuropatkino; also shelling was coming from nameless heights, located on the territory of Fizuli. Data provided by the Azerbaijani side. Fire was silenced by response fire.

The representative of the Defense Army of Nagorno-Karabakh, in turn, sent word that this week, from 20 to 26 January, Azerbaijan violated ceasefire regime nearly two hundred times. Azerbaijani forces units of different caliber guns fired in the direction of the Armenian positions above seven hundred shots. And air forces of Azerbaijan made a few training flights along the entire strip of contact.

Kazimirov, Chairman of the Board of Veterans Foreign Minister, Russian Federation salting retired in 1992-1996 Managing mediation of, the authorized representative of the Russian Federation, the President of the Nagorno-Karabakh and co-chair of OSCE Minsk Group Russian Federation, writes:

"With all the great military expenditures and boasting its own power, Baku has a pretty grounds likely to fluctuate in the final test to resolve the conflict by force. Failures of the war 1991-94. psychologically more long-term management will suppress Azerbaijan. After all, the potential of AR and then was obviously higher than that of the Armenians — a secret in its implementation. Hitherto remember 10's captured tanks and armored personnel carriers, prilazhennoy the fight is against their former owners. The nominal power of Baku then summed, without giving just right end military action and to keep under control the vast countryside. Instead of analyzing the mistakes of those years there again shapkozakidatelskih attitude. Azerbaijanis annoying occupation by Armenians 7 districts, giving them a number of the primary motivations, but the Armenians have an incentive to fight for survival is much stronger. "

Baku in complex local criteria can not expect a blitzkrieg, and that, according to the views of fellow Kazimirova gives quite time for international intervention. Moreover, in his view, the wines of Baku in the international community will be indisputable.

"The unfavorable background for Azerbaijan will develop and in international organizations. In fact be rejected OSCE peacekeeping role, but, in turn, co-chairs — Our homeland, the United States and France — will inevitably condemn the resumption of hostilities. In particular, can be a tough tone of Moscow, which had had a truce in 1994 with the assistance of the CHS CIS. Will be destroyed obligation of the Azerbaijani side to the Council of Europe to resolve the conflict by peaceful means. Call to mind the fact that Baku in 1993-94. long did the UN Security Council Resolution demanding the cessation of hostilities … "

Eventually the pressure of international organizations and large countries will force Baku collapse coming.

There is also a financial component of the war, which does not:

"Succeeds on oil and gas, the ruling clan Ilham Aliyev not to the liking of exchange business boom to failures, and even interruptions in the supply of hydrocarbons to the likely temporary loss of markets."

Given the fact that in Russia there are millions of Armenians and Azerbaijanis, writes on the creator, it fails to be a newcomer to the distant conflict.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov at a briefing in Moscow nedavneshnem said, Our homeland that together with other members of the OSCE Minsk Group will continue its efforts to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: "If we want to solve the problem in practice, it is necessary to act as co-chairs of the OSCE." He said that the co-chairs of the OSCE couple of years have been working on the preparation of the contract for the settlement of the conflict, but the parties have not agreed upon the final paragraphs of the document. According to Lavrov, the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the sides of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict continue to meet. Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk parties proposed a truncated version of the document on the settlement, but so far there are no results.

Analyst Alexander Novik highlights the issue of in the style of conflict resolution — or rather, the question of how this style is immediately formed external actors.

Expert notes, In recent years, both in Azerbaijan and Armenia are the claims about the ineffectiveness of the Minsk Group. Criticism involves co-chair and an executive format, and notes for the negativity Azerbaijan "Tune" the co-chairs of preserving the status quo in the conflict zone. Topic low efficiency of the negotiation process within the OSCE and its "imitation" is increasingly heard in the Armenian expert community. Curiously, attacked critics are certain co-chair countries.

Chairman of the Armenian opposition party "Republic" Aram Sargsyan stated that "until this problem is to be solved under the" roof "of, the actual result will be.

Azerbaijani Political scientist Vafa Guluzade says that "Russia could spark a war between Azerbaijan and Armenia or Azerbaijan to the danger from the north, because the 100000th Russian army is on the northern borders of Azerbaijan."

In the end, the "information processing" many Azeris believe the creator writes that their country lost the war not-Karabakh and Armenia did not, but it turns out … RF. Azerbaijanis are told the journalist said that their country was at war with Russia. As can be seen, defeated in war, our homeland. Who threatens to now? Moscow again.

"Objectively evaluating the acts of the Russian Federation in the region, it can be argued that the cessation of hostilities, the signing in 1994 of the" Agreement on life cease-fire "is a great reward specifically Russia. With all this it is a mediating role of in the attainment of peace, that people did not die, but not secession of Karabakh from Azerbaijan, said in Baku. "

A lot of peace efforts has made our home and now — as co-chair of OSCE Minsk Group.

Yes, the position of the Russian Federation with respe
ct to the parties to the Karabakh conflict — a complex, recognizes the creator of the material. After Russian financial and military aid to Armenia was the prerequisite cooling of relations between Russia and Azerbaijan. But Azerbaijan is home to about 140 thousand Russian, and in Russia (2002 census) — 621 a thousand Azerbaijanis. And among the countries visa-free travel regime. Between Russia and Azerbaijan is rapidly developing economic cooperation, particularly in the energy sector.

So Makar, often speaking to analysts and political scientists, especially the Azerbaijani and Armenian, a possible war over Nagorno-Karabakh must be attributed to attempts faster "emotional" (as it was expressed to Carol Williams), if feasible. Azerbaijan will not shoot down civilian aircraft, as well as become and Armenian politicians to arrange any "provocation" from the disputed strip. Another thing is that before the election and on the eve of 25 years of the date may be a "worsening" at the level of political debate or media coverage.

Surveyed and translated Oleg Chuvakin
— Especially for topwar.ru

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