Actions taking place in Egypt confirmed the outlook that the actions of the end of January 2011, when Egypt was made "Twitter revolution", is only the beginning of destabilizing the country and its traffic chaos.
To do this, that is to realize quite analyze the situation in the economy, demographics, Egypt. Look to its geographical position. Virtually the entire Egyptian population (over 80 million people!) Is concentrated on a narrow strip of land — the plain of the Nile River and its delta. It grows to a million people, less than a year. This factor creates an additional role in enhancing the destabilization of the country. Country is dependent on imports of industrial products, food and fuel. The government receives a significant South American financial assistance. The revolution has undermined one of the most important items of income of the population — a tourist sphere (because the service sector feeds more than half of working Egyptians). There is the problem of water — the countries downstream of the Nile have fundamental plans on water intake, it is a terrible blow to Egypt, the Nile — the river of life for Egyptians. When a couple of years, the countries located to the south of Egypt realize their plans for irrigation in Egypt comes complete collapse. Either he will have to fight a war for water.
After removing Mubarak is the Islamization of the country. This is a trivial process for at least some of the revolution, the victory in the end wins the one who is more hard-edged, concrete, hard, in Egypt — is the Islamists, their extremist wing. After the revolution of 10's Islamists, well, just the criminal element, who was sitting in jail, were freed. And the army is rapidly becoming Islamized, Mubarak her "net", now do not whom.
It is necessary to take into account the factor that a significant part of the population — it's lumpen proletariat, ie, the representatives of the underclass of society, who are alienated from the origin does not have a case for production activities, not having either lost their professional qualifications. Thus, even according to official data, the country of up to 10% of the unemployed and 20% of people living below the poverty line, the revolution is even more complicated the situation. Tourists, tourist zones were separated from these groups, "the iron curtain". It is not accidental tourist areas had their own police. It was closed areas, where they could get the local poor.
Hosni Mubarak, President of Egypt from October 1981 — the beginning of February 2011, ranked the country is very fragile, but progress is having a system that allows to maintain stability. Balance held on tourists, Suez Canal, on the sale of natural gas to Israel at U.S. monetary aid to foreign finansovlozheniyah that provide cost containment in the country steel control. The population under the authoritarian favorite of received, though small compared ration (another take just not where, taking into account the availability of natural resources, population and other reasons), but constantly and with some growth. But this system has worked exclusively in the eastern part of authoritarianism, hard power, and at the moment she fell.
The Islamic Factor
All statements "Muslim brothers" that they do not plan to take in more than half of Egypt parliament seats, and do not intend to put forward their candidate for president — is only informational noise. He hides the preparation to the fact that the authorities in the Arab Republic Egypt (ARE) in the hands of Islamized ran across the armed forces and the police, as Islamist parties and movements.
"Muslim Brotherhood" are very intense: in Egypt at the moment is open almost complete freedom of action for all design flows, the authorities are losing control of the situation. In the Sinai Peninsula — members of "Al Qaeda" and the Iranians collaborating with Israel, the local Bedouin tribes virtually no oversight Cairo. That's why Jerusalem permitted Cairo input moderate contingent of the army to the peninsula after a series of terrorist attacks in Israel. From the south, through Sudan, there are channels "Al-Qaeda" and its North African division. Libyan-Egyptian border at the current time is open, and through it, there is a stream of Islamists, guns, explosives. If you take into account the factor that "Al-Qaeda" was fixed in Cyrenaica, on the border with Egypt, and in general well in Libya, it is clear that there is a realization of creation of the Islamic Caliphate.
The Islamists have eastern outpost — Afghanistan and Pakistan. Who created and creates a western — Libya, Egypt. The next step in the lists of "modernization" of the West in the works and the "Al-Qaeda", Algeria, Syria, and Iran. Crushing these authoritarian regimes, we get a situation where "Jaws" become closed around Israel.
In addition, we must remember that Egypt itself — it is the birthplace of "Muslim brothers." So, who is in Qatar, which is popular televangelist, Sheikh Youssef al-Qaradawi — a native of Egypt. Most of the "political commissars" "Al-Qaeda", including Ayman al-Zawahiri — is also the Egyptians, and the Institute of Cairo Al-Azhar University (where, as I recall, the Moscow literati gathered to prepare for the Russian Muftis Federation) have learned and are learning important contributors brothers Muslims from all over the world, and they can be equipped with not one or the Jamaat emirate.
And all these "happy" the action takes place against the background of the collapse of the Egyptian economy. After the fall of the Mubarak revolution, post-revolutionary unrest situation in the national economy of Egypt is even worse, the only sector of the economy, which still working as usual — the passage of ships through the Suez Canal.
According to the views of the President of the Institute for Near East Yevgeny Satanovsky: "Situation Egypt is not revolutionary, there are still more terrible — it is a situation of chaos. " Today's power Egypt derzhut not under the control of the situation, they are ready to give power, or perform anything that will indicate the Islamists.
In Egypt, there is a tremendous "radically Islamized mass of the population, plus the Western media that support the excitement with the words" the people against the dictatorship. " Mayhem at the Embassy of Israel is just the beginning, "there are worse massacres," Coptic Christians of Egypt awaits unenviable future. And the "bells" for their already rang when p
ublished several clashes involving the abduction ladies. Satanovskiy believes that "the order of the day or — the transition to a state that will lead to war with Israel, Egypt. It is inevitable. " And to the absolute collapse of the country — 6-10 years.
Barack Obama, who on the eve of the elections need to score points, can pronounce the latest "peace-making" speech, threaten Cairo cessation aid (as U.S. supplies up to 30-40% of the grain and flour), saving a few billion dollars. But the situation is not fundamentally change, can only slow down the process of the collapse of the country.
Moscow is to ban travel to Egypt to complete stabilization. Although some stranger in the criteria wave of unrest, riots will become a target. Intelligence agencies need to work hard to have come from Egypt, and the students who studied there people. And other areas — Libya, Jordan, Sudan, etc., should be carefully kept under control. We can get the flow of Islamic radicals, and so we have with this case the situation is difficult. Russian Federation for the Islamists is the same goal as the authoritarian regimes in the Islamic world, Israel, India, China. They have links with existing in Russia Islamists.