What will be the political echo of explosions at the Russian embassy in Minsk? What will be the impact of a possible non-participation in the election campaign of Alexander Milinkevich? The pro-Russian candidate — it's an empty brand or Reality?
On these topics in the "Prague accent" talk Sojm member of the Party of the Belarusian Popular Front, a political scientist Yuri Chausov, columnist of the newspaper "Kommersant" Pavel Sheremet and a columnist for Radio Liberty Vitaly Tsigankov.
Drakakhrust: Prior to the announcement of elections in Belarus remains … The idea is a little left, although there are various surprises, as reported in the agenda of the session of the House of Representatives, which will open on September 7, destination election date is not specified. All some mysteries and secrets of this time. Here are some of them, I propose to talk.
One of the mysteries — two Molotov cocktails thrown at the Russian Embassy, which became a huge political detonator explosion. Versions of the heap — from Belarus to the Russian radical anarchists. One of them — that the explosion — a provocation Russian special services, voiced not only Belarusian politicians influential circles, but also the head of state.
I understand that any version of this situation seems speculative, but still on your mind — who profit from this explosion? And the larger question — what role it will play in the incident bilateral relations, to the information war that goes on between Moscow and Minsk, role play, regardless of who was involved in the incident? Yuri Chausov
Chausov: Any real politician can use the incident to their advantage, regardless of whether it is pro or anti-Russian. An explosion in a strange way is beneficial to all the political forces in Belarus. He stirs interest in the process and raises the stakes. Least likely to win the Alexander G., since the explosion — a demonstration of destabilization, to demonstrate that all is not well controlled in the Republic of Belarus, as it paints a state propaganda.
Opposition candidates have already begun to interpret these bursts, such as a hand or Russian Belarusian secret services, which
aims to give a reason for the repression of the opposition. If you take the history of the bombings that took place in Belarus, the authorities every time they used to put pressure on the opposition.
As for the pro-Russian forces of the Belarusian opposition, the god ordered them to represent the role of the explosion as a provocation Belarusian secret services against Moscow. I think that during this presidential election will be more such incidents.
Drakakhrust: Paul, but in your opinion, who profit from the incident and who may like to use it?
Sheremet: I liked the version of Yuri. But in the end during his presentation I lost the thread: the explosion is beneficial to all, 150 versions. If we start from this standpoint, we never get closer to the truth.
In fact, it is proven technology Belarusian secret services, who for years threatened Moscow mythical nationalist militants. In fact, shares of nationalists were clear and understandable. And for those actions directed not so much against Russia, but against the Belarusian authorities, selling independence, these people are always punished. But for those footy action as throw Molotov cocktails at the embassy, the embassy on fire — during which no one was ever punished.
I am absolutely sure that this is the handwriting of the Belarusian special services, the Russian secret services do not need it. And no one was pulling the tongue of President Lukashenko, who has gone beyond common sense in evaluating the incident. It is no coincidence Putin, who was attending a book fair in Moscow, there was a day when the Belarusian exposition ignored Belarusian exposition.
In Moscow outraged. People who have always known the true value of Lukashenko, just laugh. But supporters of Lukashenko in Moscow just kept quiet, because if the debate moves to the level of battle drunk, they can not even defend Lukashenko.
DrakakhrustVitaly, and what is your answer — who benefits and who can learn from this incident?
Tsigankov: In our program, opinions were divided geopolitically, as they shared in the information space. In Russia they say that it is the work of the Belarusian special services in Belarus say it is not so simple. I really do not see what benefit there for the official Minsk. I agree with Yuri Chausovo that Alexander Lukashenko this incident is beneficial if it focuses on the stability of the fact that we have nothing in Belarus, they say, there is no such a blast at this time it is not needed.
I remind you that the explosion on July 3 for two years looking for the culprits. How can this be beneficial to the Belarusian authorities — to show his helplessness? And, in the case of 3 July searched all forces arrested dozens of people, and not just the opposition.
Nekljaev said the radio "Echo of Moscow", the Belarusian authorities foment anti-Russian hysteria. But for this there is reason and without incident at the embassy. It is fueled in part of the information war, where attacks follow one another on both sides.
Belarusian opposition said that behind this Belarusian special services that may begin on repression. The opposition can and should speak, but, as we can see, the repression has not yet begun and is unlikely to start.
Belarusian official media try to downplay the significance of the explosion. On the day when it happened, in the "Panorama" information about the incident was made at the 25th minute.
But in the Belarusian-Russian relations explosion has played a role, even more hasty atmosphere of the information war. The parties accused each other and exchanged punches — well, and went to the next round.
Sheremet: I do not agree either with the fact that said Vitaly, nor that says Yuri. Particularly acute struggle over the attack on the Russian Embassy gave a statement of the Belarusian side, especially the speech by President Lukashenko. If he had said nothing, then after a couple of days and it may be calmed down. Moreover, there is nothing surprising in the fact that the Belarusian official media silent about the incident.
Let us remember, ladies and gentlemen, it was always with such incidents as the recipient of these incidents in Minsk and Moscow, it is sent message, if not me, then tomorrow you throw nationalists "Molotov cocktails."
Drakakhrust: Paul, but it turns out some very sophisticated version. On your version Lukashenko wants to show Moscow that if he did not, then come to power nationalists who all Russians throat cut from the embassy. But not publicly accused the nationalists, as usual, but instead
Russia. So what's the point of the game Lukashenka?
SheremetAll logical. Suddenly, for the attack on the Russian Embassy Belarusian authorities do not get that response, they received over the years. Previously, after such incidents appeared comments Russian politicians, who said that Lukashenko — is stability, and its absence — is chaos. Now everyone is saying that it's his game that has bothered to watch this show. And this reaction knocks it out of the rut, out of balance, he begins hysterical. Everything is so logical that I have a history of not cause any problems.
Drakakhrust: Another interesting story — persistent rumors that the election campaign will not participate Milinkevich, rumors Milinkevich their unspoken commentary confirms rather than refutes. I recall that he started the campaign very loud and one of the first, with the presentation of the hotel "Europe", and in fact — even during last year's European Forum. And where that has got to?
Attitude to Milinkievich may be different, but let me remind one simple thing — according to the polls it was he — the rating policies after Alexander Lukashenko.
As far as you seem plausible these rumors? And if Mr. Milinkevich do not take part in the campaign, what consequences this will have for the company and for the national-democratic trend of the Belarusian opposition?
Tsigankov: It seems to me that there is indeed a high probability that Milinkevich can come out of this company at some stage. I make these conclusions based on conversations with people from the surrounding Milinkevich. The motivation for the Belarusian public is sure to be such that we do not want to play on a scenario developed not for us, and if it tougher, then on a scenario developed in Moscow. If Milinkevich will not run, he, by the way, will receive the respect of those politicians and voters (say, the most radical), who believe that the election is not necessary to participate, that they should boycott. Among the politically active public a considerable number of them. This audience is mostly Zenon Pozniak, but we can say that this Milinkevich its decision to some extent, identify with him. In addition, such a decision would remove speculation that accompanies Milinkevich Lukashenko that, well, he went on to co-operation with the authorities.
Non-participation in the elections will be for many proof that Milinkevich — an independent politician, he does not want to take part in the games Lukashenko. As for the national-democratic trend of the Belarusian opposition, the big question is that whether there will be someone to represent it for the ballot. It is possible that with the departure of Milinkevich so get that one there and never will. It is possible that Milinkevich could support some of the young politicians — Rymasheusky or Michalevic. Is it possible that, due to circumstances that we do not know or of which is not to say the press Milinkevich decided that the game is not worth the trouble, and this decision is best for him personally and for the national-democratic trend in general.
Drakakhrust: Paul, what do you think, what will be the consequences that decision Milinkevich, if it is taken? It turns out that if he would withdraw his candidacy, the election configuration is as follows: Lukashenko, the candidates, which some consider pro-Russian, and the weaker candidates, even for me, no one is offended.
Sheremet: Pro-Russian candidate has not been seen and it is unknown whether he will. But everything they say about him, he is a ghost, The Flying Dutchman …
Drakakhrust: Paul, what this is and strength.
Sheremet: With regard to the option when Milinkevich refuses to participate in the presidential campaign. It certainly is a step that will contribute to the consolidation of the opposition forces. Milinkevich Sannikov and nearly destroyed the BNF and continue to do so successfully. Milinkevich output of the fight, as well as Sannikov, may return the remains of the nationalist wing of the unity and dynamism.
Much will depend on what kind of motivation to Milinkevich will come out of the company, whom he supports, to whom he will give even a small electoral resource.
The peculiarity of this campaign is that many politicians have started long before they became clear time frame of the campaign. This is due to the fact that they were engaged in self-PR to profitably sell themselves to investors and sponsors, they are not prepared for the real political struggle, not preparing to mobilize supporters, they just stuffed his worth.
Although Vitali and urging people not to talk about it openly on the air, it has now become clear who has the resource, and who does not, financial resources, human, political, etc.
I believe that the main reason for the possible withdrawal of combat Milinkevich — the fact that he could not single out a formal candidate to become the real leader of the opposition, and at some point he had been denied financial assistance traditional European partners.
I personally would not want him to withdraw entirely from the political struggle, perhaps, that there are also personal reasons, can health can he prepared to go on pension in Poland, where his children.
He has a small electoral resource, and if it is beautiful will come out of the struggle and support some of the candidates, it will make a big deal for the Belarusian democracy.
Chausov: As in any political event, there are both pros and cons for all the political forces. The only thing that the policy should not be guided by rumors. I think that most political actors build their strategy based on the fact that Mr Milinkevich such a step would do. It is a pity that this is happening just a few days before the official start of the presidential campaign.
I liked the idea of Mr. Sheremet relative improvement of the national-democratic trend after such an act of Milinkevich after such an act. But these results can be long-term. In the short term, the loss of the main candidate of the national-democratic forces before the start of the election campaign (and refusal to run — it's an admission of defeat) will be a serious blow on the flank of the opposition and also for the reason that will fight for the inheritance Milinkevich in the electoral and organizational sense. Those candidates who are positioned as a national-democratic — Rymashevski, Kastusyou, Michalevic will seek to take possession of the electoral and
organizational resource Milinkevich. This right, the Russian wing of the Belarusian opposition is confused and it is possible that there will reign war of all against all.
I would like to draw your attention to another aspect. We must not forget that the results of this election will be decided not in the counting of votes, the result of this campaign will be decided on the square. And the question now is — under what flag will be held this area, who will lead the people of the area. The lack of a strong candidate for the right wing may be the reason that the traditional opposition of citizen's rights to the area will not
go, because it is, they say, the Kremlin and the Kremlin area scenario, we are there on someone else's script does not come on.
After leaving the race Milinkevich left-wing opposition, frankly Romanchuk Nekljaev, is mainstream, and they will be responsible for the results of these elections. Milinkevich "he washed his hands," facilitate the task of the people who take responsibility for those choices.
Drakakhrust: Belarus continues impassioned discussion anxious problems, who is pro-Russian candidate and who is as agreed with the Kremlin. Called and specific names are mentioned their trip to Russia. But here's a strange moment. This week, a team of Yaroslav Romanchuk held a conference in Moscow. But who — with Boris Nemtsov, who almost from the conference went on an anti-government rally and was taken to the police station. A few months ago, the newspaper published the Belarusian Vladimir Neklyaeva conversation with Yuri Shevchuk.
But also Shevchuk — opposition. It seems that the Belarusian guests confused Yeltsin and now in Russia. Then the same Nemtsov of the organizers of rallies against the war in Chechnya, which was conducted by Yeltsin, could get in the chair vice-premier. And for the present Kremlin and the Russian government, these gentlemen — the enemies, with which he treated like enemies. Do not show contacts with the Belarusian opposition is Russia's liberal opposition, that they — the latter who may be candidates for the Kremlin?
Sheremet: The story of the pro-Russian candidate reminds anecdote and is not funny. All circuits are building on sand, which will be washed away just one wave.
At present, I absolutely do not know about the search for a candidate Moscow some unknown, that such a man elected, know the name of that person. It would have been known to swear that I would not hide it.
I do not blame George Chausova that he care Milinkevich interprets as a victory of pro-Russian forces and the lack of Milinkevich square as a call to the fact that we should not come back.
But I'm sure the throw-in information pro-Russian candidate, hysteria about protecting our country from the pro-Russian candidate, the Belarusian section of the electorate and the Belarusian opposition to the pro-European and pro-Russian — is the operation of the Belarusian special services. Lukashenko is very advantageous to disperse us to different corners, put us on these stamps, so we did not do the main problem — the overthrow of the dictatorship, which leads into the abyss of Belarus, and to focus on clarifying the relationship with each other.
To date, there is no pro-Russian candidate, it may appear, can not appear. All contacts that have the Belarusian opposition in Moscow, contacts are not of such a level that we can say that the Kremlin was involved in the political struggle in Belarus. Just like all the contacts of the Belarusian opposition in Europe are not as effective, so we can say that it will lead us to freedom, to change the situation.
Therefore, I urge all to stop this debate about the pro-Russian and pro-European candidates urge to understand that we have the main goal — to achieve political change in this country, that the next president will still be in between Lukashenko and win — it's very difficult.
And we should not vote for a pro-Russian or pro-European candidate, and we really need to support a strong, really able to make some kind of alternative.
DrakakhrustVitaly, and what is your view on this issue pro-Russian candidate? By the way, you can remember that in the 1994 presidential candidate Alexander Lukashenko in the Kremlin, too, did not participate. But he was a pro-Russian candidate.
Tsigankov: I think that for all its good intentions Paul's appeal to stop the debate still hardly feasible. And regardless of the intelligence of these things will be discussed, and can unfortunately. In defense of our politicians who talk about it, you can say what they think and what will happen after. Apparently, now applies to all democratically minded people is the most important thing — it is to get rid of this authoritarian regime. But it is normal that politicians think not only about how to overthrow Lukashenko, but also about what will happen next. In 1994, the main aim was to overthrow Kebich. And then the BPF, which was stronger than all of the current opposition put together just for this and fought. And somehow looked a threat as Lukashenko, who took neither here nor there and the wins and for 16 years by Belarus. Therefore, today's politicians can understand when they think about what will happen after Lukashenko, and would not it be worse, do not get in Belarus even more dependent on Russia.
And the fact that some of the opposition candidates say they can become pro-Kremlin — for me it's mostly from the sphere of public relations, not reality, and public relations on the part of their competitors, and by the candidates themselves.
Indeed, and Romanchuk and Nekljaev meet in Moscow with opposition politicians, they are present in the Russian opposition media. As for Romanchuk, he communicates with his long-time colleagues. But here came to some meeting Kudrin, and he acting minister Romanchuk see, had the opportunity to throw something than to ask. It certainly makes sense, but none of the normal analyst does not conclude from this that Romanchuk or Nekljaev will pro-Kremlin candidate.
I agree with Paul that Russia does not make sense to put on these people, there is no need to spend the money and time.
Chausov: I would have approached the question of the presence or absence of pro-Russian candidate from an analytical point of view. The pro-Russian candidate as a figure of speech exists. And by Lukashenko and the Belarusian part of the opposition's campaign this item will be used, too much temptation to blame the candidate for president in the work to foreign agents.
Many candidates. Paul said that the pro-Russian candidate at the moment, but some candidates are fighting for this status. Promising words Romanchuk that his economic program is already on the table in the Kremlin — is unambiguous claim that it is beneficial to the Kremlin. However, the last thing you can imagine — is that in the corridors of the Kremlin's support some of the Belarusian opposition. Hardly. Indeed, we have not seen clear support for, say, of shaking the hands of Putin. Russia burned in Ukraine in 2004, supporting one candidate, so that we are now more able to speak not of the pro-Russian candidate, but about some scenarios the Kremlin in respect of the forthcoming elections in Belarus.
Also in the last resort is to believe that Russia is not interested in a result of these elections. And if it turns out the obvious pressure on the Belarusian dictator, I'm sure that any rate in this election the Kremlin will be done.
Paul is not in defiance of calls to talk about the pro-Russian candidate, we will talk about it, because it is a real concern about a significant part of the Belarusian society. There are concerns that Moscow has prepared us a new "Godfather", which will be more agreeable, more aprgeyzhany to European and less odious. But it
will not be for the benefit of the national interest.
The charges will be such, they should be treated as an element of propaganda. The question of whether people expect to be "the best Lukashenko." Looking at the people who are nominated for the presidency, it seems to me that such a betrayal from them, we can not wait.
Sheremet: Fear of the pro-Russian candidate — is evidence of the weakness of the Belarusian elite. Belarusian opposition elite not confident in their abilities, it's kind of inner psychological complex, which must be addressed.
Worse than Lukashenko can not be. We could wake up tomorrow in a different country. The danger is that we will sell Lukashenko Russia is retained until the last moment, while he was in power. Get another chance in Russia was not — absorb Belarus through its policies. Lukashenko was such a politician. The next will never repeat this mistake, as the Belarusian elite has already got used to living on their own and not be afraid of some of the "Varyag", which is something one deploys. We have experienced grief, our enemy — is the current president, and we have to consolidate to make a difference.