March 28 the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its latest report on global warming and its impact on human life. His comments about the shared future shocks Swiss climatologist Thomas Stocker
Needless to say, the global climate is changing, and with no one to consult on this occasion he did not intend. The question arises whether global warming increases the number of so-called "extreme" weather events? And, if so, what effects it threatens people? The third question of a practical nature: how to protect against such influence, limit it?
To which the answer to Thomas Stocker, an ardent Swiss climatologist, professor of physics at the University of Berne and co-chair of one of the three working groups of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). He shared with the journalists of the newspaper Le Temps their views in connection with the publication of the UN report.
Let's start with the definition of "extreme weather event": According to Stoker, this term can give a few definitions and simplest would sound like — a rare event that happens once every twenty years.
The essence of a more scientific definition is that such events are arranged according to their frequency or intensity above a certain statistical threshold of 10%, 5% and 1% (the number depends on the situation.)
Talking about what "extraordinary events" creates a common climate variability, and which — global warming, a scientist said he had a light hand warming increases the intensity and frequency of hot weather, record temperature and precipitation.
About the relationship between the heating of the planet and cyclones researcher was able to give a definitive answer, but assured that since the last large report IPCC (2007), scientists are well advanced in their observations.
The effects of global warming more specifically manifested in the fact that the average temperature on earth comes close to the threshold beyond which begins "extraordinary events." Hence — the increase in the number of days in which the temperature exceeds a threshold called.
As well explained and record high temperatures. It is a record, not a record figure — one number means nothing to scientists, it does not say anything, but a series of numbers — it is statistical data on which to build the edifice of scientific interpretations.
Explain the increased precipitation also easy: the warming of the pair evaporating liquid to the atmosphere, and thus more clouds then throw on us and on the environment.
Increases if the effect these three phenomena these days, or you can even sweet yawn, because we are talking about the future? No, the growth of perturbations climate machine caught our time. Impressive words of Thomas Stocker that the five hottest years occurred in the period after 2001, and the five coldest winters otsvisteli winds of up to 1924-th.
Without interest the fact that such things do not seem to cover the entire planet with a methodical dispassion, and account for different regions. Sagging heat and record temperatures recorded by scientists in Australia and South America as well as in North America and Europe (that is, where the observations are particularly frequent and regular). More fortunate tropics, where the vagaries of changing climate prevails normal cycle the water cycle.
Precipitation is also not whip equally over the entire surface of the Earth, but the places where they are amplified, though more numerous than those which are observed to decrease.
Of course, the described weather events have a direct impact on the lives of people. An increasing number of floods and heat of summer, when the temperature does not drop much at night.
From this "abundance of heat" is happening more deaths, especially among the elderly. Moreover, for the states floods and heat mean additional costs for repair and record temperature resistance.
However, there is a reason to smile with relief, wipe the sweat from his forehead with a cold: we have described "extraordinary events" at the same time improving human living conditions, because very low temperatures gradually recede into the past, and drought also biting elbows in certain areas because of more frequent rainfall.
Finally add that scientists do not provide an absolute guarantee that everything is and will be exactly as described in this article. To describe the climatic phenomena they use so-called "calibrated language."
Recent systematic indicates probability level verifiable phenomena. Thomas Stocker noted that with respect to temperature (heat sag and other) scientists feel more confidence than in terms of drought and rainfall. Accordingly, modeling and easier to implement in the first than in the second.
After the information you do not know what you want more then you take a cool shower, or wrap up tightly in a shawl from a fever, caused by fear for our future. Hopefully, the "calibrated language" meteorologists lead them to a more optimistic way — through further observation and the rest of mankind, which is not too late to change their mind and do everything in his power to the planet breathe freely and easily, and the climate is not like a fantastic novel.