The real reason for intervention in Syria

We have not finished with the possibility of an Israeli strike on Iran. Taking into account the fact that the current round of negotiations with the major global powers will not change significantly the Iranian nuclear program from the issue of the Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities must take center stage later this year. Vpribavok to prudent diplomacy and economic sanctions have important step that is able to make the United States to change the calculations of Israel — assist people Syria in their fight against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

Iran's nuclear programm war and civilians in Syria might seem unrelated, but in reality they are inextricably linked. The real horror of Israel — to lose its nuclear monopoly and that the ability to use their ordinary troops as he pleases in the Middle East — is vneglasnym factor guiding its decisions against the Islamic Republic. For the Israeli control of the true threat from Iran having nuclear weapons is not the prospect of beginning a crazy Iranian favorite unprovoked nuclear attack on Israel, which will lead to the destruction of both countries. The true danger is the fact that Iran does not even need to carry out tests of nuclear weapons to weaken the military superiority of Israel in Lebanon and Syria. Average achievement of the nuclear threshold could embolden the Iranian control to call their representatives in Lebanon, "Hezbollah" to storm Israel, knowing that their opponent will have to strongly consider, before striking back.
And here there is Syria. Strategic affairs between the Islamic Republic and the Assad regime make it probable for Iran undermine Israel's security. In three decades of hostility between Iran and Israel direct military confrontation has never been — but a means of "Hezbollah", which is supported by studies and Iran and Syria, the Islamic Republic has shown that can threaten the interests of Israel's security.

The fall of the Assad regime eliminates this terrible alliance. Defense Minister Ehud Barak, perhaps, the most important person taking the decision on the matter, said not so long ago, Christiane Amanpour on CNN, that the fall of the Assad regime "would be a serious blow to the structural axis, a major blow to Iran …. It is only a kind of outpost Iranian influence in the Arab world … and it is very damaging and "Hezbollah" in Lebanon and "Hamas" and "Islamic Jihad" in the Gaza Strip. "

The uprising in Syria has been going on for over a year. The opposition will not be lost, and quite clear that neither a diplomatic pressure or economic sanctions will force Assad to accept a negotiated settlement of the crisis. Only if it is staked his life, his family and the future of his clan, only the threat or use of force to change the position of the Syrian dictator. In the absence of foreign intervention plainclothes war in Syria will only get worse, because the radicals tend to go there to use the chaos, and increasing its distribution in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey.
The administration of U.S. President Barack Obama was, for obvious reasons, snug in the conduct of air operations in Syria, a similar campaign in Libya, for three main reasons. In contrast to the Libyan opposition Syrian rebels are not united and do not delay countryside. The Arab League has not called for outside military intervention, as it did in Libya. Both Russian davneshnie supporters of the Assad regime, stand firmly against it.

Libya has been the case easier. But apart commendable results — saving many thousands of lives of Libyan civilian population from the regime of Muammar Gaddafi, it had lasting effects for the region. Syria — a more severe case — but success there would be a modifying event for the Near East. Not just another ferocious Teran will become a victim of mass popular resistance, and Iran will lose Mediterranean foothold from which it threatens to destabilize the region and Israel.

Successful intervention Syria reclaims strong diplomatic, and military leadership of the United States. Washington should start with the announcement of his own willingness to work with regional allies like Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to organize, teach and equip the forces of the Syrian rebels. Announcement of the decision itself will cause a huge defection from the Syrian army. Then, using the terrain in Turkey and, perhaps, in Jordan, South American diplomats and bureaucrats Pentagon could start to strengthen and connect voedinyzhdy opposition. As the opposition will know that they come true OUTDOOR help, it will be likely over time to make a strong political governance based on the Syrian State Council, also controlled command structure for the Free Syrian Army, because both of these structures is currently weak and split. It will be difficult and will claim a lot of time, but we must keep in mind that the Syrian civilian war now destined to last for years, regardless of whether there will be a place OUTDOOR intervention, or not.

The second step that deserves consideration is the provision of international support for coalition air operations. Our homeland will never support such an operation, so it makes no sense to work through the UN Security Council. And given the reluctance of some European states, and with NATO, too, can be difficult. Because this operation is to be a unique union of Western and Middle Eastern countries. Given the extreme isolation of Syria in the Arab League, it will be possible to obtain the strong support of the majority of Arab countries under the control of Saudi Arabia and Turkey. U.S. leadership is of mandatory, because most of the major states would join only in this case it will lead Washington.

Some worry that the role of the U.S. risks triggering a clash with Russia. But the example of Kosovo — where NATO-led war against another Russian ally, while Moscow could only lament — indicates more. In this case, the Russian Federation were the true ethnic and political ties with the Serbs that are not between Russia and Syria. Control of the reaction of the Russian Federation to the external intervention will be difficult, but it should not exaggerate.

Weapons and the creation of the Syrian opposition coalition air forces to support it is a low-cost approach with the highest efficiency. The question of whether the air operation just to make a no-fly zone, which prohibit the flying airplanes and helicopters mode, or else it must be air and ground attacks on Syrian tanks and artillery, is specific to military planning. And, as noted by Barak, the Israeli defense minister, Syria's air defense system could be better than that of Libya, but it does not cope with modern air forces.
More relevant is the fact that while Washington stands firm on that ground troops will not be used a la Kosovo or Libya, the costs to the United States will be limited. The victory will probably not quick and easy, but it will be. A win would be huge. Iran is strategically isolated, unable to influence the Middle East. Show eventually mode in Syria, is likely to be regarded as the United States is more a friend than enemy. Washington will receive significant recognition as protecting people in the Arab world, and not corrupt regimes.

At a time when the Islamic Republic will be denied access to the Arabic world, the motivation for Israel's surprise attack on its nuclear facilities decrease. New Syrian regime over time can even resume the frozen peace talks on the Golan Heights.
In Lebanon, "Hezbollah" will be cut off from his own Iranian sponsor, because Syria is no longer a transit Fri for Iranian training, assistance, and missiles. All these strategic benefits in conjunction w
ith the moral purpose of saving the 10-s of thousands of civilians from killing the hands of the Assad regime — about 12,000 have already been killed, according to activists — make an intervention in Syria know the risk, but the risk is still worth it, so go for it.
Now, when the veil of terror subsided, Syrian people determined to fight for their freedom. America can and should assist them — and thus assist Israel and assist to reduce the risk of a much more insecure war between Israel and Iran.

James P. Rubin served as assistant secretary of state in the Clinton administration.

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