MEGA SS Myanmar, Ms? 8.4. In a communication dated 27 March 2011 mega-earthquake predictions made on the basis of the SS Myanmar Ms? 7.8. The system is already prepared a mega-earthquake with M = 8.8, so further monitoring will do in Mega SS Myanmar Ms? 8.4. Information is very scarce, we know two disasters in 1762, 1897 (see Tab.2) and unfinished last seismic cycle. Arakan subduction zone closed in 1762, almost 250 years. Recent catastrophic earthquake in Mega SS occurred in the north of the system in 1897. The earthquake caused damage in 300 000 km2 with an average radius of 250 km (maximum displacement — up to 11 m, 1,500 people died) in India, Bhutan, Bangladesh, western Myanmar. The system in the north of the Bay of Bengal Indian plate collision with East Asia has created canned (currently inactive) subduction zone in the form of a gigantic funnel "sleep" 20 km layer of sedimentary rock. When moving large elastic Indian plate to the SE, its segment in the Bay of Bengal is deformed and plunges rather clockwise twisted and pressed for SE Asia. This segment of the Indian plate is pushed to the north under the Shillong Plateau, and the eastern Arakan engaged with the micro-plate, which shows the seismic activity of right-hand-strike-slip faults of Sagaing, wild boar and Kaldan (see Figure 2 and 3). All these processes are controlled under the seismic system. When the entropy reaches a critical value (about 100-150 years time) Arakan microplate hardened (above active faults internal lock), then periodically triggered or Zone Shillong or Arakan. Now the turn of the Arakan. Figure 3 shows a red line potentially dangerous locked region in the plane of subduction to depths of 30-35 km, where presumably focus more tension. Energy diagram and experience show that there is prepared a catastrophic earthquake with M = 8.8. This is confirmed by GPS observations. For the region of instability in the track diagram in the case of Myanmar, compared with Japan and Chile, static entropy production prevails over dynamic. This means that the process is slow and long "ripen" in time, and the loss of stability (subduction) can occur suddenly, without prior seismic activity.
In Tab.2 and Figure 4 shows the values of the fragment track training catastrophic earthquake with M = 8.8 at the beginning of June 2011. Accumulated entropy is W = 20.531. This is the second only to the record value of the entropy from the recent earthquake in Japan (W = 20.586). Since the system is ill-defined, we have calculated the attractor points for earthquake-indicators (yellow line in Figure 4):
K = 0.373W +9.949 (2)
Of May 2011 K = 17.611. Substituting in Eq (2) is critical values of entropy Wk = 20.542. Lull in seismic entropy reaches this value by February 2013. So, until the end of 2012 on the NE Bay of Bengal may occur catastrophic earthquake with M = 8.8 and a powerful tsunami.