For the UN World Food Programme made a map of the famine in 2011. The map was prepared on the basis of last year's report on the situation of food security in the world. The report of the UN World Food Programme states that the main causes of hunger in many parts of the world are natural disasters, conflict and a lack of infrastructure in agriculture. According to the report, at present there are about a billion people live in poverty. 1 of 6 people are malnourished, needed for healthy living.
see also Asia and Africa in 2011 threatened "hungry" revolution
The map, compiled World Food Programme, the level of hunger by countries classified colors into 5 categories. The highest recorded level of hunger in Haiti, Chad, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Angola, Malawi, Zambia and Mozambique. 35% of the population in these countries are at the level of fasting. In the fourth category consists of some countries in Latin America and Africa, as well as Armenia, Mongolia, Cambodia, Yemen, Pakistan, India and Tajikistan. In the third category are some of the countries of Latin America, Africa, Central and South-East Asia. In the same category includes China, considered the second largest economy in the world. Brazil, Venezuela, Turkmenistan, Nigeria, and other countries with the figure of 5.9% in the fourth place. The developed world, painted in blue on the map, are placed in the first category.
Source: Azerbaijan Television and Radio
UN does not rule out global hunger
According to the World Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), in December 2010, food prices rose to record levels. Experts attribute this to the rise in price of sugar, grain and raw materials for the production of vegetable oil.
FAO economist Abdolreza Abbassian not exclude continuation of a trend this year in the event of adverse weather conditions.
In November, the Rome-based FAO, has warned the international community of the dire consequences if the production of cereals in the world will increase. According to FAO projections, this year, the price of food imports in the global scale to increase by 11%, and in most developing countries — 20%.
Concern is compounded by the fact that these states are now also facing the greatest shortage of food. In 2007-2008, the poorest country in the world, such as Haiti, covered unrest due to rising food prices.
FAO price index for food includes rice, wheat, corn, sugar, meat and other products.
Source: Voice of America
Food will never be cheap
Rising prices for it all over the world, including associated with the deterioration of hydrology and decrease in the area of agricultural land
Price index of international governmental organizations (FAO), which includes 55 species of food products, in December 2010 was 214.7 points. So high cost of food has never took off — the previous high was registered in June 2008 and was 213.5 points. Compared with December 2009, the FAO index rose 25%, while for the whole year on the world food has risen by 24.3%. In the end of 2010, food prices accelerated in November was 3.7% in December — 4.3% (about 50% year on year in the continuation of such growth rates).
However, this is — just the beginning of a prolonged increase in food prices around the world. FAO in 2011 made this prediction: the prices of food imports globally will grow by 11%, and in most developing countries — 20%. Based on the data for November-December 2010, this forecast will probably be exceeded.
The situation is aggravated by the fact that in developing countries people spend on food is much much of the family budget than in the states of the "golden billion". Thus, the U.S. food expenditures are on average only 10% of the family budget in the EU — 15%, while in Russia — 40%, in China — about 60%, and in Haiti — and at 85%. In this case, the average Russian spending on food more than the American poor. Thus, 20% of American low-income households with the lowest income spend 35% of their income on food.
Food prices in the same Russia are growing at the rate for developing countries that the FAO predicts just yet. Thus, in 2010 the minimum food set in the country rose by 22.7% (for comparison — in 2009 to rejuvenate himself by 0.7%), and in general the food price increase was 12.9% (the official inflation 8.8 %).
Even more dramatically, rising food prices in other developing countries. "Free Press" has already written about in China conducted monitoring of food prices, which showed food price increase for the year by 62% to 18 species of the most common vegetables. However, in contrast to Russia, the Chinese are not going to put up with the poor in the impending malnutrition. So, in November, after the announcement of the next increase in fees for food, are a middle school in Guizhou province Lyubanshuy tablespoon crushed and smashed cars director. In the mass massacre was attended by several hundred students.
Mass actions occurring as a result of food price increase occurred in December and January and in other developing countries. In Algeria and Tunisia, took to the streets, tens of thousands of demonstrators, mostly — young people (in the two countries in 2010, the food has risen by 18-22%). In Tunisia, police and troops killed about 100 protesters, and eventually led to a demonstration flight of President Ben Ali and the rise to power of the military junta. In this speech the regime to both countries to increase the issuance of free bread to the poor.
FAO, the main reason for such a sharp rise in food prices calls "the tragic combination of several factors," including the principal — crop failure of major food crops in different regions of the world. So, the heat is conducted to the 2010 shortage of grain in Russia (and our country was the world's third largest exporter) of 20-25 million tonnes. Flooding in the Australian state of Queensland have killed tens of thousands of cattle. Late frosts in Europe have led to a loss of 5-7% of potatoes.
However, the steady trend increase in food prices is still not connected to the force majeure (they can be explained only short bursts). American journal Foreign Policy describes several global factors whose impact on ekosredu determines expensive foods in the long term (over the next 10-20 years).
Despite the drop in the rate of growth of the world population each year in the world added about 80 million people. In addition to this growth, about 3 billion people "moving up the food chain" — in short, begin to eat more. In China, over the past 20 years, consumption of meat per capita grew in 2 times, and dairy products — by 6 times. Even in India, where the poverty rate still exceeds 60% by local standards, caloric intake over the past 10 years has increased by 14%.
Increase in the production of biofuels
In 2010, the continued growth of food processing to biofuels. So, in the U.S. out of the total grain harvest 416 million tons 119 million tons was used for bioethanol. This amount would be enough grain to feed 350 million people for a year.
In Europe, food is processed into biodiesel — and serves as the main raw canola. Under this crop in the world have set aside 2% of all cultivated land, and the global harvest of canola reached 58 million tonnes — compared with 36 million tonnes in 2004. 80% goes to the canola biodiesel. If the world today lead indicator of the area under rapeseed in 2000, then vacated the field could provide up to an additional 50 million tons of grain.
Similar processes — the area under culture, going to bioethanol and biodiesel — are in the tropics. Thus, for over 5 years, from 2005 to 2010, with palm oil production increased from 35 million tonnes to 47 million tonnes, 20 million tonnes is used to produce biodiesel (the countries of Southeast Asia in 2010 produced about 6 million tons). Planting oil palm occupy fields that grow traditional Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, food crops — rice, sweet potatoes, beans, etc.
The growth in demand for grains is globally in the last five years to 41 million tonnes per year (in 1990-2005 — 21 million tons each year.)
Although the annual rate of growth in demand for corn has doubled, there are new restrictions on its production — for example, soil erosion.
So in the world, there were two large hearth eroding soils. First — in the north-west of China west Mongolia, the second — in Central Africa. Satellite images show the constant emergence of dust storms in these areas. This has already led to the fact that in North China in recent years has been thrown 24,000 villages and millions of hectares of former pastures turned into desert.
In 2007-2009, the world annually due to erosion from agriculture fell out of 6-7 million hectares of land, but due to waterlogging, salinity, leaching — another 1.5 million hectares.
Deterioration of Hydrology
Aquifer depletion leads to a rapid reduction of irrigated area in many parts of the world. Today, half the world's population lives in countries where the water table is falling rapidly. Irrigated area is reduced by the Middle East, particularly in Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. For example, until recently, growing wheat in Saudi Arabia was conducted exclusively on
irrigated fields (in this case could reach high yields — up to 60 tons per hectare). But from 2007 to 2010 because of the growing shortage of water wheat production in the country has dropped by 70%. As expected, in 2012, Saudi Arabia completely stop growing the crop. Every year the country consumes about 3 million tons of wheat. At the peak, in the late 90s, the years immediately grown to 2.3 million tons, in 2009, the collection has dropped to 1 million tons.
The situation is similar in India and China: irrigated land there fed 175 million and 130 million respectively. Every year an area of irrigated areas in India and China is reduced by 2-3%.
Moreover, reduced irrigated area even in the U.S. — especially in the states of California and Texas (by about 2% per year).
Another emerging trend that threatens food security is the melting of mountain glaciers. This is of particular concern in the Himalayas and on the Tibetan plateau, where melting ice supports not only the major rivers of Asia during the dry season, such as the Indus, Ganges, Mekong, Yangtze, Yellow River, but also on the level of melt water irrigation Bhutan, Nepal , northern India, Tibet, China, Pakistan and Afghanistan. In total, the runoff from these mountain systems in 2007-2010 fell by 6-7%. According to conservative estimates, this has led to a 5 per cent loss of crops of different cultures in these countries.
Recently, a lot of talk about the threat of melting glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica — are called apocalyptic figures rise in global sea level up to 1.5-1.8 meters by 2100. The reality so far is that from the mid-1970s, the sea level rises annually by 3-3.5 mm. Thus, over the past 25 years, the rise of water was only about 8 cm, however, and these seemingly small numbers led to periodic podtaplivaniyu Asian deltas of rivers — the Ganges and the Mekong. Due to the onset of the ocean Bangladesh loses thousands of hectares, and the flooded land can be collected about 1 million tons of rice.
Limit yield growth
In the last decade we have witnessed the emergence of yet another constraint to increase global agricultural production: in most countries, as the limit of growth of productivity. In Japan rice yield since 2005, and remains at the same level — about 52 tons per hectare. The situation is similar to the yield of wheat in Europe — the main producers. In France, the yield of this cereal stopped at 70-72 tons per hectare, and in Germany it did drop slightly (2-3% per year, up to 68 quintals).
In developed countries, in the last 5-7 years, also made a "ceiling" on the milk yield, the rate of gain of pigs, chickens for egg production. All it means is that Europe, North America, Japan and Australia will not be able to rapidly increase agricultural production — in the best case, it will stabilize at current levels.
Potential yield growth is in developing countries. But there it is limited or lack of water, or the rising cost of fertilizers and plant protection products (2 times in the last 5 years).
The attack cities and machines
Another trend slowing the growth of agricultural production — conversion of agricultural land for non-agricultural purposes. First of all in developing countries is urban growth, industrial facilities, roads — for the construction of this power and the private business redeem farmland. Thus, only in China over the past 10 years, the city seized about 800,000 hectares of former arable land, about 100,000 acres were in industry, warehouses and distribution centers.
In 2011, new car sales in China are projected to reach 20 million units — a record for any country. U.S. rules state that for every 5 million new cars should stem from one million hectares of land — under roads, parking lots, gas stations, local mechanic, etc.
As for the forecast of growth in food prices in the medium term — in 2019, the FAO call these numbers: The average price for wheat and coarse grains will increase in real terms (adjusted for inflation) by 15-40% compared to the average level prices in the period from 1997 to 2006, growth in real prices for vegetable oils will be more than 40%, dairy prices will rise by an average of 16-45%.
Townspeople are gardeners
In anticipation of the implementation of such gloomy forecasts, the Western world, as in the industrial time (early twentieth century), is beginning to shift to the individual self with food. Thus, the U.S. is growing movement of "urban gardens" — where the beds are broken near the houses or on their roofs. Thus, only in San Francisco from 2000 to the present day there was about 40 acres of "urban gardens". And these lands are operated at high agricultural technologies. For example: a small area of about 40 acres, of land in the suburbs of Philadelphia allows a year greens and vegetables worth 67,000 dollars. In Milwaukee greenhouse roughly the same amount of annual income provides the size of more than 200 thousand dollars.
Russian-born American journalist Yury Kolesnikov describes gardening success in American cities: "In Portland, Oregon, where availability is not enough for a vegetable garden, a newspaper ad for unused land was the beginning of a city farm City Garden Farms area in the quarter-acre (10 hectare — "JV"). And it is not a single area, and more than a dozen small patches of land — each in its own backyard. "People are happy. Besides this initiative even more united our community, "- said one of the founders of Farm Martin Barrett.
In the capital of the State of New York Albany living there my cousin vegetables supply her colleagues, who have gardens in one of the parks. The gardens have become so fashionable that the city of St. Louis, Missouri, home builders include patches for them
as bait for future buyers. According to the National Association of gardeners grow vegetables now one in four American family. Compared to last year the purchase of seeds and seedlings this year has increased by 30-40 per cent. A magazine "Organic Gardening" states that the amount of vegetables, shot from home beds for the first time in many years exceeded the number of families grown flowers. "
Russian citizens from their land to feed — do not get used. For example, in Moscow, 60% of households have a house, and 84% collection of potatoes in Russia is the gardens and small farming plots, even 50% of the meat produced in the country in the backyard. The rising cost of food should not frighten hardworking Russians — on the contrary, they have a chance with their work on the ground to earn good money.
Source: The Free Press