Abnormal become normal — a report on the future of climate

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has published key findings of the risk of extreme climate events in the XXI century, according to WWF.

On November 18 the meeting of the World Forum of scientists dealing with the problem of climate change and its effects on people's lives and the world economy. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has come to a consensus on the future of the main findings of a special report on climate extremes. The output of the report is scheduled for February 2012.

According to a summary report of the future, if emissions of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels will be reduced by at least a factor of 2, the abnormal phenomena become for us an annual 'routine ", and the loss of human health and the economy can become a major problem of mankind.

Most attention in the report is on the most vulnerable areas: Africa, desert areas, lands, strongly affected by the floods. But a lot of attention paid to the relatively well-off regions, in particular Russia. In our country, the strongest effect is expected in the Arctic, but also the center of European Russia, the Urals and Siberia will not go away from hazards.

The essence of the problem is that the events that we are seeing, for example, once every 10 years, by 2050, may occur once every 3 years, and by the end of the century become almost annual. In particular, this means that the terrible heat waves that were in Western Europe in 2003 and in Moscow in 2010 to 2070 will be an annual event. However, the report says, this will only happen if humanity does not curb the growth of greenhouse gas emissions, that is, will not go to green energy and stops reduce forest. All scenarios calculated in a report in three ways: at the minimum, average and maximum human interference in the climate system.

The report also emphasizes that not all phenomena is a clear relation with the global human impact on the climate. Therefore, scientists have very clear scale: for every phenomenon as a percentage of probability indicates how it can be linked to emissions of greenhouse gases.

Increase in the number of hot days characterizes the probability of more than 99% and the rate of heat waves, more than 90%. It is emphasized that if now in the northern regions heat waves happen every 20 years, the second half of the XXI century so severe heat waves will have time in 5 years, etc. For precipitation estimates are more uncertain. For more erratic rainfall, that is, in fact, for droughts and floods, the probability of growth is estimated to be very wide as 66-100%.

'In the summary of the report is a very visual pictures, showing that we are waiting for is not so much 'warming "as an extreme climate, depending on location can be either a decrease or an increase particularly cold days"- Comments Alexei Kokorin, Program Manager 'Climate and Energy »WWF Russia.

In this case there 'high confidence that the growth in particularly hot and very cold days on a global scale due to an increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases"- Says Qin Dahe, co-chair of a group of scientists who prepared the report.

'Increased frequency events, droughts, floods, etc. much depends on what will be the emission of greenhouse gases. In the worst case, the growth rate of phenomena can achieve a 10-fold"- Adds co-chairman Thomas Stocker.

WWF welcomes Russian withdrawal summary of the report, which is itself a strictly scientific and convincingly portrays the situation and waiting for release of the report, which should be the basis for decision making, how to adapt to more frequent 'abnormal "events, and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has published key findings of the risk of extreme climate events in the XXI century, according to WWF.

On November 18 the meeting of the World Forum of scientists dealing with the problem of climate change and its effects on people's lives and the world economy. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has come to a consensus on the future of the main findings of a special report on climate extremes. The output of the report is scheduled for February 2012.

According to a summary report of the future, if emissions of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels will be reduced by at least a factor of 2, the abnormal phenomena become for us an annual 'routine ", and the loss of human health and the economy can become a major problem of mankind.

Most attention in the report is on the most vulnerable areas: Africa, desert areas, lands, strongly affected by the floods. But a lot of attention paid to the relatively well-off regions, in particular Russia. In our country, the strongest effect is expected in the Arctic, but also the center of European Russia, the Urals and Siberia will not go away from hazards.

The essence of the problem is that the events that we are seeing, for example, once every 10 years, by 2050, may occur once every 3 years, and by the end of the century become almost annual. In particular, this means that the terrible heat waves that were in Western Europe in 2003 and in Moscow in 2010 to 2070 will be an annual event. However, the report says, this will only happen if humanity does not curb the growth of greenhouse gas emissions, that is, will not go to green energy and stops reduce forest. All scenarios calculated in a report in three ways: at the minimum, average and maximum human interference in the climate system.

The report also emphasizes that not all phenomena is a clear relation with the global human impact on the climate. Therefore, scientists have very clear scale: for every phenomenon as a percentage of probability indicates how it can be linked to emissions of greenhouse gases.

Increase in the number of hot days characterizes the probability of more than 99% and the rate of heat waves, more than 90%. It is emphasized that if now in the northern regions heat waves happen every 20 years, the second half of the XXI century so severe heat waves will have time in 5 years, etc. For precipitation estimates are more uncertain. For more erratic rainfall, that is, in fact, for droughts and floods, the probability of growth is estimated to be very wide as 66-100%.

'In the summary of the report is a very visual pictures, showing that we are waiting for is not so much 'warming "as an extreme climate, depending on location can be either a decrease or an increase particularly cold days"- Comments Alexei Kokorin, Program Manager 'Climate and Energy »WWF Russia.

In this case there 'high confidence that the growth in particularly hot and very cold days on a global scale due to an increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases"- Says Qin Dahe, co-chair of a group of scientists who prepared the report.

'Increased frequency events, droughts, floods, etc. much depends on what will be the emission of greenhouse gases. In the worst case, the growth rate of phenomena can achieve a 10-fold"- Adds co-chairman Thomas Stocker.

WWF welcomes Russian withdrawal summary of the report, which is itself a strictly scientific and convincingly portrays the situation and waiting for release of the report, which should be the basis for decision making, how to adapt to more frequent 'abnormal "events, and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has published key findings of the risk of extreme climate events in the XXI century, according to WWF.

On November 18 the meeting of the World Forum of scientists dealing with the problem of climate change and its effects on people's lives and the world economy. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has come to a consensus on the future of the main findings of a special report on climate extremes. The output of the report is scheduled for February 2012.

According to a summary report of the future, if emissions of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels will be reduced by at least a factor of 2, the abnormal phenomena become for us an annual 'routine ", and the loss of human health and the economy can become a major problem of mankind.

Most attention in the report is on the most vulnerable areas: Africa, desert areas, lands, strongly affected by the floods. But a lot of attention paid to the relatively well-off regions, in particular Russia. In our country, the strongest effect is expected in the Arctic, but also the center of European Russia, the Urals and Siberia will not go away from hazards.

The essence of the problem is that the events that we are seeing, for example, once every 10 years, by 2050, may occur once every 3 years, and by the end of the century become almost annual. In particular, this means that the terrible heat waves that were in Western Europe in 2003 and in Moscow in 2010 to 2070 will be an annual event. However, the report says, this will only happen if humanity does not curb the growth of greenhouse gas emissions, that is, will not go to green energy and stops reduce forest. All scenarios calculated in a report in three ways: at the minimum, average and maximum human interference in the climate system.

The report also emphasizes that not all phenomena is a clear relation with the global human impact on the climate. Therefore, scientists have very clear scale: for every phenomenon as a percentage of probability indicates how it can be linked to emissions of greenhouse gases.

Increase in the number of hot days characterizes the probability of more than 99% and the rate of heat waves, more than 90%. It is emphasized that if now in the northern regions heat waves happen every 20 years, the second half of the XXI century so severe heat waves will have time in 5 years, etc. For precipitation estimates are more uncertain. For more erratic rainfall, that is, in fact, for droughts and floods, the probability of growth is estimated to be very wide as 66-100%.

'In the summary of the report is a very visual pictures, showing that we are waiting for is not so much 'warming "as an extreme climate, depending on location can be either a decrease or an increase particularly cold days"- Comments Alexei Kokorin, Program Manager 'Climate and Energy »WWF Russia.

In this case there 'high confidence that the growth in particularly hot and very cold days on a global scale due to an increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases"- Says Qin Dahe, co-chair of a group of scientists who prepared the report.

'Increased frequency events, droughts, floods, etc. much depends on what will be the emission of greenhouse gases. In the worst case, the growth rate of phenomena can achieve a 10-fold"- Adds co-chairman Thomas Stocker.

WWF welcomes Russian withdrawal summary of the report, which is itself a strictly scientific and convincingly portrays the situation and waiting for release of the report, which should be the basis for decision making, how to adapt to more frequent 'abnormal "events, and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Source: www.wwf.ru

Like this post? Please share to your friends: