Group of climate scientists from the U.S. and Spain, has determined that the climate is less sensitive to an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide than previously thought. The article appeared in the scientific journal Science.
The object of the study researchers was the Last Glacial Maximum — a period during the last glacial period, when the total volume of ice was the highest (about 26-20 thousand years ago). Using data from previous studies, the researchers were able to reconstruct the temperature regime of the sea and on the land that time period.
After this, they built a sophisticated computer climate model, which, among other things, take into account the atmospheric circulation of air, ocean currents, changes in the distribution of vegetation. Then, using statistical methods, the researchers tested the sensitivity of the model to an increase in carbon (doubling it, to be precise) — the main parameter climate that determines the change in the average temperature of the planet.
As a result, it was found that with increasing concentration of CO2
in the atmosphere at 100 percent of the average temperature has increased by 2.3 Kelvin. For comparison, the previous "optimistic" model gave an average growth of an average of 3 kelvin.
Experts in the field say that the results of climate scientists need to check on other models — their words led New Scientist. They also noted that small changes in the average temperature can lead to major climatic changes. For example, during the last glacial maximum, the figure was 2.2 Kelvin below the present.