Richard Altrok of the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory in New Mexico, specializing in the study of solar coronal structures, has put forward the idea that the peak of solar activity, which is expected to be adopted in 2013, in the northern hemisphere of the sun has already happened — in July 2011.
According to his calculations, the peak of activity in the southern hemisphere will be observed later predicted and will come only at the beginning of 2014.
Like, if you're interested, have already experienced: it is a period called the Maunder solar minimum. According to some researchers, something that could happen again.
With a better understanding of the sun's surface to its dark spots and added other instruments to study the active light. So, Richard Altrok focused on polar coronal formations on the Sun, appearing in his mid-latitudes at the start of the solar cycle. With increasing activity light and the promotion cycle they drift toward the poles. When they reach the 76th latitude solar maximum occurs, and after a while education disappear. At least it used to.
However, this time in the Northern Hemisphere polar coronal education disappeared earlier than in the south, — in July of 2011, when neither of which its peak scientific world did not even think, because in comparison with the standard maximum number of spots in 2011 was not very large.
However, the southern hemisphere stars relevant education does not disappear, but the poles are moving very slowly. At the current rate of a local peak in the Southern Hemisphere will come in February 2014, which also coincides with the predicted peak of the standard models, which should come in the 2013th.
Steven Tobias, a mathematician at the University of Leeds (UK), which specializes in the modeling of processes involving the magnetic field of light, suggests that such a large asymmetry of solar activity in different hemispheres — a sign of serious change. "Changes in the symmetry [in different hemispheres] are characteristic for more than the minimum, rather than for the full cycle," — he said. The new study, to some extent confirms the alarmist reports about the beginning of a major new low, made some time ago.
Have a minimum depth may correspond to the Maunder minimum period 1645-1715, when the Moscow River for six months, do not reset the ice, and St. Petersburg could be used as a port of a smaller part of the year. Unfortunately, scientists have yet to understand exactly how low solar activity is related to temperature fluctuations on the planet. Some argue that the effect is negligible, and the others, however, point out that the ultraviolet radiation of the sun in a far greater degree varies depending on the number of spots on the luminary and can determine significant changes in the direction and intensity of winds and currents. The latter, by the way, by itself, can lead to something like the Little Ice Age (the most intense part of which just came in the Maunder minimum).
|The current cycle of activity similar to daltonovskomu minimum. Below are just a Maunder, his promise to us, and some forecasts. Will Londoners again ride in a sleigh on the Thames?|
Finally, a few stands out view Henrik Svensmark of the Danish Technical University, believes that longer periods of solar activity leads to a decrease in the size of the heliosphere and increase vulnerability of the Earth from cosmic rays, leading to an increase in cloud cover and a general cooling of the planet.
Well, if Richard and Steven Tobias Altrok are right in their calculations, we have a "great" opportunity in their own skin to make sure it is capable of more than the minimum of solar activity lead to Little Ice Age. With the coming winter, you!
With research preprint is available at arXiv.
Prepared according to NewScientist.