Dramatic forecast of the pace of global warming is exaggerated, said University of Oregon researchers. According to their research, a scenario in which a doubling of CO? in the atmosphere as compared to pre-industrial levels would increase global temperatures 2-4,5 C, is unlikely to come true. In other words, the temperature of the mid-century will not grow as much.
Question the forecasts of the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, submitted in 2007, researchers made the excursion into the distant history. According to them, if we take into account not documented data on temperatures, which could be determined only from the middle of the XIX century, and even then not on a global scale, and set the temperature and the concentration of the conclusions of CO? in an atmosphere of 21 thousand years ago, when the Earth was going through the last glacial period, a different picture emerges, which suggests that the negative scenarios of global warming are exaggerated.
SIMULATION OF THE ICE AGE
Cornerstone question that fighting climate scientists — is "sensitivity" of the climate in terms of numbers, that is, how the Earth will respond to projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. And oregontsy offered an answer to this question.
With the expertise of the glaciers, boreholes, fossils of marine and terrestrial organisms, sediments on the sea floor, and other factors, they reconstructed the temperature at the surface of land and ocean during the last ice age and have created a global map of those temperatures.
It is assumed that the atmosphere then was about a third less CO?, Than before the Industrial Revolution, the levels of methane and nitrous oxide were also significantly lower. Since most of the northern latitudes were covered in ice and snow, sea level was lower, the climate was dry (no rain), and the air was more dust. All these factors account for the cooling of the Earth's surface, were also included in the creation of climate models.
Reconstruction of temperature had a greater spatial coverage and the result showed less cooling during the glacial period than most previous studies. Oceans and that an ice age was only two degrees colder than it is now.
These findings refute the theory of the "climate sensitivity." According to her when BEFORE during the Ice Age volume CO? in the atmosphere decrease in global temperature would amount to more than six degrees, the very same land, if we follow this logic, it would be completely covered by ice. But such a strong cooling is not confirmed by the findings of researchers at Oregon University. In addition, it is obvious that the total glaciation occurred.
How fast is warmer?
The smaller the "sensitivity" of climate, however, does not mean that you should do nothing. Agreeing that human activity provokes global warming, University of Oregon researchers still insist that the warming will be much softer, and therefore the population of Earth has in store for several decades to find the best ways to reduce carbon emissions?.
Experts, however, perceive the statement oregontsev heartedly. Head of Laboratory of Climatology, Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences Andrei Shmakin says that such assumptions have their place, but recalls that the issue of global warming, there are too many uncertainties, and the cycle CO? in the atmosphere are poorly known to make such categorical statements.
Head of the Energy Department "Greenpeace Russia" Vladimir Chuprov notes that CO?, Which is released into the atmosphere in the past caused by natural mechanisms, and CO?, Emitted by human activities — a few different things, human factors, all greatly speeds. Therefore, he said, despite the different models of events, the vast majority of scientists agree that by 2050 the global temperature will rise by 2 ° C to 66-90%.