According to information received from the Australian hydrometeorologists WMO, in most computer models, continues to increase the probability of an early El Nino.
In the past two weeks, the surface temperature of the water in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean has continued to rise, while the trade winds were weaker than usual. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), being negative, increased in magnitude.
Al-HandNyo (El Nino), during the warm season of low salinity surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Distributed in the summer of the southern hemisphere along the coast from the equator to Ekuadora 5-7 ° lat. sh. In some years E.-N. increases and, penetrating far to the south (15 ° S. lat.), pushes the cold waters off the coast of Peru Current.
A thin layer of warm water E.-N. stops the flow of oxygen in the subsurface layers, which is detrimental effect on fish and plankton rich Peruvian productive area, heavy rains caused catastrophic flooding in the normally arid coast. Penetration of warm waters in the south due to the weakening of the trade winds and the cessation of cold subsurface waters rise to the surface in the coastal ocean. This is usually a catastrophic event occurs at the end of December — early January. It manifests itself particularly strongly in 1891, 1925, 1941, 1953, 1957-58 and 1972-73. During development E.-N. fish (anchovies), or dies or leaves the coastal waters, which causes high mortality of fish-eating sea birds and reduces the amount of guano, used as agricultural fertilizer.
Lit.: Polosin AS, El Niño, M., 1975 (lit.); Fairbridge RW, El Nino effect, in the book.: The encyclopedia of oceanography, NY, 1966.