Increases the likelihood of El Niño

According to information received from the Australian hydrometeorologists WMO, in most computer models, continues to increase the probability of an early El Nino.

In the past two weeks, the surface temperature of the water in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean has continued to rise, while the trade winds were weaker than usual. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), being negative, increased in magnitude.

Monitoring data, which is held in the tropical Pacific, show good agreement between the results of previous model calculations and the observed state of the environment. According to these calculations, parameters can approach or even reach the critical values corresponding to the phase of the El Niño, somewhere between the middle of winter and beginning of spring in the Southern Hemisphere (the middle of summer and the beginning of autumn in the northern hemisphere).
During El Niño episodes in much of eastern Australia is usually an insufficient moisture during the winter and spring, and in the south of the continent daytime temperature is much higher. However, El Niño does not guarantee widespread drought conditions. Fluctuation in the Indian Ocean (IOD) currently meets neutral conditions. About half of climate models indicate the likelihood of a positive phase during the winter and spring (southern hemisphere). In the case that the positive phase of IOD and El Niño, the probability of drought in South Australia will increase.

El Niño

Al-HandNyo (El Nino), during the warm season of low salinity surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Distributed in the summer of the southern hemisphere along the coast from the equator to Ekuadora 5-7 ° lat. sh. In some years E.-N. increases and, penetrating far to the south (15 ° S. lat.), pushes the cold waters off the coast of Peru Current.
A thin layer of warm water E.-N. stops the flow of oxygen in the subsurface layers, which is detrimental effect on fish and plankton rich Peruvian productive area, heavy rains caused catastrophic flooding in the normally arid coast. Penetration of warm waters in the south due to the weakening of the trade winds and the cessation of cold subsurface waters rise to the surface in the coastal ocean. This is usually a catastrophic event occurs at the end of December — early January. It manifests itself particularly strongly in 1891, 1925, 1941, 1953, 1957-58 and 1972-73. During development E.-N. fish (anchovies), or dies or leaves the coastal waters, which causes high mortality of fish-eating sea birds and reduces the amount of guano, used as agricultural fertilizer.

Lit.: Polosin AS, El Niño, M., 1975 (lit.); Fairbridge RW, El Nino effect, in the book.: The encyclopedia of oceanography, NY, 1966.

A. Polosin.

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