Khalilov: This year, there are still three cycles of high seismic activity. Interview

Exclusive Interview with Professor AZE.az Elchin Khalilov — President of the International Committee on Global Change and Environment Geological GEOCHANGE (Germany), President of the Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes (England).

— Elchin Aliyev, following the catastrophic earthquake and tsunami in Japan March 11, 2011 was about 3 months. Despite the fact that this earthquake, according to experts, was thrown back Japan's development for decades, people in other countries are gradually recovering from the shock produced by the monstrous scale of the natural disaster and concentrate on other pressing issues. Whether the nature of the "let off steam" and permanently relieved?— This is not entirely true. Nature did some "let off steam" in the region of Japan, but it is the accumulation of increasing rates. What does this mean? The fact that the accumulation and discharge of energy in the Earth happens for a recurrence. There is a cycle of increased geodynamic activity of the Earth, when repeatedly activated catastrophic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Such cycles in the life of our planet was much. Cycles of increased endogenous activity of the Earth — is the internal energy fluctuations, during which active processes in the core and mantle, and the energy is pulled out of the deep interior. Along with megacycles millions of years, there are micro-cycles, estimated periods of several months. When we provide long-term and medium-term forecasts of seismic activity, the ratio is taken into account the maximum number of cycles of different scales. The fact that within a few months of our planet more "calm", does not mean that, finally, the seismic activity has subsided. These are just a "quiet" period before the next storm, when there is an accumulation of the next portion of energy. Unfortunately, our research continues to show that the scale of seismic activity will grow in proportion to the solar activity, with a maximum in 2013-2014. — Can you tell our readers, in which months you can expect a high seismic activity in 2011?


The Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes prepared another information medium-term forecast of the dynamics of the Earth's seismic activity in 2011. This information will be posted a few days ago on Internet sites GNFE, GEOCHANGE and WOSCO. Meanwhile, we decided to first pass this information AZE.az. I give the graph, which shows the evolution of seismic and volcanic activity on our planet in 2011. Thus, this year, there are still three cycles of high seismic activity. Maximum of the first cycle of seismic activity in 2011 covered the period — the end of February — beginning of April, the maximum of the second cycle will cover the second half of June — July, the third cycle is expected in October and the fourth cycle of the highest and projected forward from the end of December 2011 to January 2012.— Elchin Aliyev, coming in 2012 and that many scares. Perhaps the flames fanned the famous American film "2012" and the Mayan calendar, which calendar ends December 21, 2012. Many people perceive this date as "day loan" or "Apocalypse." What do you think about this?— Of course, taken with the use of modern computer technology and the beautiful graphics American movie "2012" has focused the attention of people all over the world on the issue of a possible impending natural disaster on a planetary scale, aligning it with the date of the Mayan calendar. Far as is reasonable? If we take into account that the Mayan calendar — a system of reckoning, we can formalize his perception to the level of a purely astronomical tool for timing. I do not think it would be correct. Directed by American film "2012" problem quite cleverly used the Mayan calendar, the data of geophysics and astronomy to deploy exciting story. That's why he had such a huge success and had a profound psychological impact on audiences around the world.Land — this is part of outer space, is sensitive to any change in the universe, our galaxy and the solar system. In 2013, expect the next solar maximum, but not the usual — in this same period of maximum solar cycles of different scales — 11-year-old, 22-year-old, 90-100 years and 300 years. This is sort of energy resonance. The report of the International Committee GEOCHANGE results of studies in which prolonged the beginning of the 24th solar cycle is treated as a long lull before the more powerful "solar storm." In any case, published in the report of the International Committee GEOCHANGE forecasts in June 2010, now fully realized.An increase of 500% speed magnetic north also reflects the increased energy processes in the Earth's core, which form the geomagnetic field of the planet. Information about the activation energy of Earth's core has recently been made public in the results of research by NASA, which confirmed previously published information about it in the report of the International Committee GEOCHANGE. As for the possibility of doomsday in December 2012, our forecast is not so pessimistic. Yes, this period will be very active in terms of the number and energy of earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and atmospheric manifestations — our studies show this. Meanwhile, the International Committee GEOCHANGE and the Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes Today was not observed until the trends in the changes of global geophysical and astronomical parameters, indicating the approach of a certain planetary catastrophe, which may cause the death of all mankind. At the same time, do not exclude the death toll, the flooding of large areas of the Earth, and even the disappearance of a number of islands. Strong solar flares can temporarily disrupt radio communications over large areas, and damage electronic equipment on artificial satellites and on the ground. Activation of plate movements can not only lead to the appearance of high seismic and volcanic activity, but also to large-scale shifts in major tectonic crustal blocks within the plates, resulting in the destruction of pipelines and communications systems of communication. During this period the expected intensification of landslide areas and the potential for major land subsidence, razzhizhzhenie soil and other displays that are dangerous for humans.Personally, I do not take this period as "Apocalypse" or "end of the world." In my opinion, this is the transition of our planet for the next large-scale cycle of development, a new energy level. After this period of geodynamic activity may change some geophysical parameters of the Earth, for example, the location of the magnetic poles, the speed of rotation of the Earth, the ratio of the pole and the equatorial radius of the planet, etc. For human civilization it can be a serious challenge, but I'm sure that she once again step over the threshold of development and may then be able to re-think their spiritual values. — On the one hand your answer somewhat reassuring, the other — annoying. What you need to do to get over the next "threshold" in the development of the Earth?


Since 2010, the energy and the growing number of strong earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, and other disasters should be a stern warning to the UN, the EU and governments to take concrete measures to prepare for a large-scale natural disasters. So far this has not happened. Although at the national level, a lot of work to prepare for possible disasters is widespread in the U.S. and certain other countries. Meanwhile, the events in Japan have shown that no country, not even the industrial and economically very strong, can themselves manage large-scale natural disasters. Only by combining efforts, mankind will be able to step over the nature of the test for strength. An urgent need to start using the latest advances in science and technology, new technologies for early public notification of impending disasters and their prediction, earthquake engineering, personal protective equipment, new systems of communication and information in the areas of natural disasters. The most recent results of research and sensational information about current and expected developments in the nature of sound at the World Forum — International Congress and Exhibition, entitled "Natural cataclysms and global problems of modern civilization — GEOCATACLYSM-2011", which will be held 19-21 September 2011 in Istanbul . At the congress has already registered a large number of participants and members of the scientific committee of more than 60 countries around the world, including members of the governments and parliaments of various countries, renowned scientists and experts from around the world.

Many thanks for the interesting interview.

N.Kafarova

Source: aze.az.

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