More precisely, draft system legally remain, but no one really "zabrivat" will not. A similar situation exists in the United States, there is also a formal army, air force and navy to be equipped conscripts, but every year the appeal is declared a "zero."
Naturally, as a result of structural reductions in the Bundeswehr will decrease the number of units, formations and military equipment. Although with regard to the latter, for the past 20 years, the Army tank fleet of the Federal Republic has been cut by more than 5 times, while the Luftwaffe was only a third of the combat aircraft from the available number in 1990. In this speech before Gutenberg made a statement that this process will continue to touch it must not only cash Arms (written off 6 of 10 submarines, more than half the fighters "Tornado"), but will also significantly cut programs from the procurement of new samples (BMP "Puma "planes" Typhoon ", etc.).
AFGHAN "moment of truth"
And the previously announced cuts, and now announced Gutenberg reform aim to lower cash costs at the Bundeswehr in the criteria is not clear yet ended the economic crisis (in this case Germany must rescue themselves and are in an even worse situation the EU). But future conversion is perhaps due not so much economic as political and military reasons. We are talking about the latest Germany's role in Europe and Europe (more precisely — the EU) in the world.
The Federal Republic — a government with the strongest economy in the Ancient World, the economic and political "locomotive" of the EU. A Bundeswehr before that day or used to be considered the "main striking force of NATO in Europe." Specifically for this reason that the country remained compulsory military service — "the main strike force" is bound to have a reliable, prepared reserve. Another reason for retaining conscription — shy looking back at the past nedavneshnee Nazi Germany: very clear that the support of a totalitarian regime is even easier to make the caste hired than people's conscript army (see "Mercenary — no defender of the Motherland" at number 19, "military-industrial complex" for 2010 ).
But soon it became completely clear that there is no "main strike force" Bundeswehr is not represented. In-1's, he was greatly reduced in number, its present building just enough not only to attack someone, but even, perhaps, for the defense. In-2, the duration of conscription service in Germany is now equal to 6 months, but more than half of the recruits still prefer her to alternative civilian. B-3, the country's constitution forbids the Bundeswehr to take part in missions outside the NATO peacekeeping apart. In the present case, the German military must first controlled norms "of international humanitarian law."
"The moment of truth" for the current German army was the Afghan campaign. Germany is the third largest after the United States and England by number sent to Afghanistan soldiers and officers, but the Germans are showing there is very low combat capability. To wage war, they do not have the right nor the desire. After the well-known incident in Kunduz year earlier Bundestag gave its military quite delicious annotation: "The use of force, which can result in death, is prohibited except when it comes to attacking any particular danger of attack."
Moreover, the Afghan situation in Germany is officially banned to call the war, because the Bundeswehr has no right to participate in the war. For the management of the German thrash Afghanistan with 2-sides: the Anglo-Saxons — for the actual sabotage overall war effort, and a significant portion of its population — for his role in the Afghan operation, even in today's mezheumochnoy form. The left and "green" demand the immediate withdrawal of the troops, the same decision began to lean and the SPD.
"The German or boots, or under the boot"
New Times — New Puzzles
Finally, in Berlin, apparently realized that you need in the field of military construction to take positive action. No need to build yourself a "main strike force of NATO in Europe," such as the Bundeswehr already can not be considered. In addition, it is necessary to nobody, because of the large conventional war, for which the Alliance was created 61 years earlier, quite obviously, there will never be (vpribavok Germany is now surrounded on all sides of the allies). Accordingly, the lost sense of universal conscription, the more that is at the moment, with semi-annual service of the insignificance of the number of recruits, no cooked reserve in case of a "big war" will not work. And the fear of totalitarianism in today's Federal Republic sverhdemokraticheskoy simply absurd.
However, Berlin has up to now very fundamentally save for Germany the role of "locomotive" of the EU and in the military field. And there are obvious trends at all. Army European states are reduced to a purely symbolic value. Among them is quite a lot of art created for the conduct of traditional war: tanks, artillery, combat aircraft. The armed forces reoriented to conduct counterinsurgency, peacekeeping and policing operations in third world countries, what is purchased lightweight equipment — armored vehicles, transport helicopters, landing craft such as vending some people in Russia "Mistral" (this helicopter is actually a bit of a converted civilian ferry and in fact has no weapons).
Naturally, these aircraft can be equipped with only self-employed, no European government did not dare to send conscripts for the seas and oceans to other continents, that conduct combat actions, which have no relationship to protect their country from external aggression. For this approach only mercenaries, consciously ready to go to a third world country, shrouded in chaos.
In this concept fits well with th
e proposed reform of the Bundeswehr Gutenberg. After its implementation the German army would have the least thousand (it is possible that some 500) tanks and a little more than 200 combat aircraft (in 1990 BC, there were 7 thousand German tanks and thousands of planes above), then the status of the "main strike force" can be quite forgotten.
With all of this personnel will be deliberately prepared to conduct operations in Asia and Africa in the framework of NATO and the EU, with a strong focus on the role specifically in the European outdoor and military policy. After all, it is clear that lead their own political status in line with the economic leadership of Germany could only inside the European Union, where it is an important system-obrazuyushey force, not as part of the alliance, which was created not only for the confrontation of the USSR, and to monitor how Just over Germany.
Global Emergency Police-
Now the most feeble place the EU are very low coordination in foreign policy and the almost complete absence of the force component. That's why the geopolitical importance of the European Union on the order falls short of its economic power. The EU economy — the first in the world, but in the military-political terms — great if he comes in top 10 of strongest.
Europeans, particularly the favorites of the EU — Germany, Britain, France, Italy, the situation can not hold. For discussion of the development of the "evroarmii" are increasingly active. Total it will be even less than today's armies of individual countries, which will allow to save significant money. With all of this it will not manage the national government and Washington over the NATO structure, and the leaders of the EU, which will significantly increase the weight of the EU in world politics.
The possibility of a "evroarmiey" great traditional war can not even be considered. In-1's, for that she would not building (most likely this army 27 states in size will be approximately equal to one standard Bundeswehr in 1990). In-2, as patsifizirovavshayasya Europe psychologically unable to fight such a war. In addition, beat her, in general, and with whom. Its purpose — operations other than war (virtually "operations other than war", in other words the police, peacekeeping, humanitarian, etc.). It will be a typical "world police-MES."
In fact, the process of building a "evroarmii" had already begun long ago, it is only very slowly. In 1992 he accepted the Petersberg Declaration, which the Europeans announced intention regardless of NATO "to solve the humanitarian, rescue and peacekeeping tasks, to send troops to crisis management, including peace enforcement method."
In 1999, the signing of the Declaration of Helsinki of the main parameters of the EU's military development. Created Military Committee and the EU Military Staff, the concept Brigade Combat Team. It was assumed that by 2008 the number will reach 13 (and then decided to increment the number to 18, with the extension of the formation to the end of 2010) by 1.5-2.5 thousand people each. In part 4 of them have to be German soldiers and two brigade groups they head (one will command the Dutch and Finns in the other — the Czechs and Austrians).
By the way, in fact, the brigade force the EU is only just reinforced battalion, its fighting capacity is very low. In addition, the Europeans as before almost a hundred percent dependent on the United States in terms of means of combat support (intelligence, communication, control, electronic warfare, logistics supply capacity air refueling) and global rendition, with all this, have a very limited ability to Application of high-precision weapons (here they also do not work without the help of the Yankees).
These incidents and hamper European military construction. In 1-x, y of the Old World army reduced, vpribavok they have to divide between NATO and the EU. In-2, to invest heavily in the WTO, the means of combat support and global rendition particular desire of the Europeans are not observed. Yet the process is going.
So Makar, military reform in Germany will once again prove 2-trends: the erosion of both military and political component of NATO (minimizing the Bundeswehr completely transforms the combined armed forces of the alliance's fiction) and turn the EU into a confederate of the country with all provisions of attributes, including Sun
OPPONENTS inner and outer
Obviously, such a constructive variant of the Bundeswehr reform that supports Guttenberg, will be quite a lot of opponents. Far not all welcome in Germany so rapid reduction of the combat potential of the German army and its refocusing on overseas operations at actual loss of the opportunity to defend their country. Many political forces believe fundamentally a matter of keeping the call on the above "anti-totalitarian" judgments.
Failure of the main opponents of universal military service are, as it is surprisingly to us, social services — in fact more than half of the recruits, as has been said, are alternativschiki. If you cancel the call will be gone, and another service, which is why social sector will lose a significant part of the training. With all this there is not the smallest guarantee that the Bundeswehr will be able to score at least a little right number of contract. After all, the army is not popular in the community and are not competitive in the labor market.
In the end, so will have to significantly increase the foreign exchange allowance of volunteers that will not save, and the growth of military spending. In fact, international experience indicates that the mercenary army recruiting even more expensive. Or will have to further reduce the number of troops. Faster is just one right away and an even greater reduction in the number of troops, and the rising costs of maintaining them.
The sharp decrease in units and result in the loss of jobs in the service sector of the Bundeswehr civilian clothes. The forthcoming cuts in the number of vehicles and military orders inflict another blow to the German defense industry. In this case, make up the loss of internal orders through exports will be difficult — very sensitive about Europe here, a lot of political restrictions imposed on the export of arms here, which is why it loses not only the U.S. and Russia, but even China.
In the end, the process of construction of the "evroarmii" does not like Washington. It is understood that the sun will not complement the EU and NATO candidate. Eventually this union, 21 of the 28 members of which belong to the EU, Europe will simply not needed, which will lead to almost complete loss of U.S. influence in Europe. Accordingly, the white-washed house in every way try to slow down the process (first acting through England and Eastern European countries). In general, under President Obama in Washington's actions significantly diminished rigidity against both enemies and allies, because at the moment ruin NATO "old Europe" is the time.
For all the above reasons, betrothed Bundeswehr reform can take place in one of the least constructive options. But this does
not cancel all the trends identified. Europe impartially not need an old classic aircraft, they are very expensive, for all that Europeans use them in any case, are not collected. Because of this, they do not impartially and NATO to dissolve it prevented Washington (for it is an instrument of influence on Europe), Brussels bureaucracy (no comment here) and Eastern Europeans, experiencing irrational nightmare before Russia.
But even the Eastern Europeans, not to mention Western, allowing Washington to defend themselves, exhibit strong enough (in this case than on the less) willingness to participate in the various military actions (if not — adventures). But such an option is completely understandable irritation is from the Yankees. The debate about what would be the Bundeswehr, is a reflection of these trends. And on the other hand, selecting the reform of German Armed Forces will have a very significant impact on all the above processes.