On the eve of a major war

On the eve of a major war
Bashar al-Assad to step away from victory over the militants, but it does not suit the West
Konstantin Sivkov
U.S. military government announced its readiness to start intervention against Syria. The reason for this statement was the use of chemical weapons, accompanied by large-scale victims in the midst of the civilian population.

Almost immediately after the first attack, which without special checks on the accuracy of Qatar said the channel «Al Jazeera», the U.S., France and Britain accused the Syrian government in an accomplished.

At the UN, it was decided to perform an examination of the facts introduction of chemical weapons in Syria in order to find out who did it. Qualified professionals included in the commission specially made from different countries. So makarom evaluate facts introduction of chemical weapons in Syria must be completely impartial.

UN Commission as a hindrance

Work of the UN Commission preceded evaluation Russian professionals. Building on the great amount of material they have proved quite true that the chemical weapon was used by the opposition fighters. One of the principal evidence for this was the finding of a cottage industry of toxic substances, and their combat use with the introduction of «Qassam» rockets. These missiles are in service with the Syrian army, but are often used in design Islamists against Israel. It is understood that after visiting Palestine Qatar emir specifically Sunni wing of the Islamists began to produce the active support of the Syrian militants as an instrument, and personnel.

Collage Andrew greyish

Results of Russian professionals of the UN in the form of special reports, strikingly discordant with unfounded accusations of the address of the Syrian government. With a little bit of a large probability the outcome of the Russians will be proved and the UN commission.

Convinced that the commission can count on the specific findings, the Syrian government has done everything to provide professionals with the opportunity vsepolnotsenno fulfill its purpose. But this prevented opposition fighters.

Lacking by militants security guarantees for UN commission Syrian control could not prevent it in the combat zone. In case of emergencies with its representatives blame for this would be entrusted to the management of the country. In addition, the commission has finished its work would not fulfill its purpose, which is not profitable for the Syrian government, as it is more interested in someone impartial investigation of the facts of the introduction of chemical weapons.

In the criteria of failure to provide unthreatening enemies Assad UN commission’s work to ensure impartial international investigation would be only after the areas occupied by the rebels Strip. And the Syrian army did.

Knocking out militants from these areas, the Syrian government troops have found chemical weapon depots such type, which has never been in service with the Syrian army.

These caches were discovered in the suburbs of Aleppo and Damascus suburb — Dzhobara. In the latter some Syrian Army fighters received varying degrees of poisoning.

Became course: UN commission’s findings will be unprofitable as militants and their patrons zabugornye. Consequence of the commission may be the recognition of the Syrian opposition terrorist society, while even those who support the militants. Moreover, the involvement in the chemical attacks against peaceful inhabitants of Syria might be suspected the United States itself, and Saudi Arabia. According to some media reports, found in the Damascus suburb containers containing materials for the production of chemical warfare agents, are labeled «Made in USA» and «Made in Saudi Arabia.»

These criteria support the upcoming fighters, both political and real, from the interested forces in the West would be very problematic.

Militants surrender their position

Setting for those who seek to kill armed by legitimate authority in Syria and put their puppet government, exacerbated by the current situation, when the militants were defeated on virtually all fronts.

In addition to the Syrian army entered the war against their very battle-organization «Hezbollah» and Kurdish rebels.

«Hezbollah» in 2006 was able to inflict a severe defeat of the Israeli army — the strongest in the Middle East. During this conflict, the Israelis have suffered significant losses in the heavy engineering, namely in the tanks «Merkava-IV».

Takes place in Syria influx of volunteers from other states ready to fight on the side of the government. Namely, numerous facts known role in the fighting on the side of the legitimate government of Syria Iranian representatives.

Tasted good «democracy» under the authority of the opposition in the areas over which the militants managed to temporarily take control of the country’s population in their own overwhelmingly sided with the Syrian government and the existing fully assisting troops.

Militants atrocities — massacres of peaceful inhabitants only worsen the general hatred of him.

Thus, the total militants killing about 450 civilians Kurds (ladies, babies and the elderly) made them implacable enemies fighters.

Kurds have very effective armed organization, hardened in the long years of armed struggle against the Turkish and Iraqi (Saddam Hussein era) armed forces and police.

These criteria rely on the fact that only by militants will move the government of Bashar al-Assad, there is no reason.

Great concern for those who seek to take Syria under his control to cause positive changes in the convening of a peace conference on the role of Syria all the conflicting parties, including relentless opposition, known under the name «Geneva-2.»

Though what the result of this commission will be unacceptable to those who stand for fueling internal Syrian conflict. His positive resolution when both parties went out and brought the appropriate version of the agreement itself, will mean success Russian and Chinese diplomacy. And to preserve their power Syrian government and people of China and Our homeland will be the main friends in contrast to the U.S. and other Western countries that support the opposition. Their impact in this country for long years will be undermined.

Not suitable for militants and their foreign patrons and option agreement achieved if it does not, because a lot of time is lost during which militants could completely lose the ability to continue the armed struggle.

With all of this on the ability of the Syrian army warfare will continue to grow, including through the supply of arms from Russia and maybe China.

Damascus only sending Russian air defense systems S-300, provided they present the development of the Syrian army personnel and tactically correct implementation can do severe prepyadstviya for NATO air sample in the case of military invasion.

Today’s development vnutrisiriyskoy situation says that the days are numbered militants in Syria.

The advantage of the Syrian army — and a real (in weapons and military equipment), and moral — certainly.

Support of the population from the rebels incomparably less.

Syrian government allies are strong and well organized — «Hezbollah» and Kurdish rebels is no longer justified once. They have a perfect means of guerrilla warfare, or what is not yielding to opposition fighters — not in combat training, nor in the tactical and operational training, and in almost all of their superior qualities.

Massive supply weapons to militants, adherent sharply in the near future, do not change fundamentally.

Weird coincidence

According to media reports, a few days back the militants received about 400 tons of weapons and ammunition. What they said about themselves, only shows their languid position: such messages discredit and suppliers of weapons and their delivery channels. Of course, it was made with a view to give moral support to his supporters and government troops partially scare. Although a positive effect for the fighters from that campaigners say is negligible.

Militants can not be delivered and more modern heavy weaponry — combat aircraft, helicopters, artillery languid and multiple launch rocket systems, armored vehicles, anti-aircraft missile system of medium and huge radius acts. They do not have the right to use their technical and tactical training. Prevents the use of these types of weapons of their organizational structure, a lack of logistical and technological base of their operation.

The Syrian army has all the conditions for the use of such weapons systems. And they come completely legal under a bilateral military-technical cooperation between Russia and Syria.

Without foreign military intervention Military Technical benefits will be maintained for the Syrian army and its allies.

And if so, then the massive arms supplies and surge opposition fighters in Syria did not change fundamentally — strategic initiative consistently held by the Syrian army and its intercept the rebels there are no prerequisites. Their complete defeat — it is a question of time, with a relatively close.

Yet these criteria by Jordan began a massive coming fighters, while under the command of the personnel of the special purpose United States, Britain and Qatar. Their participation openly declared some media. What this says nothing coming — evidence of its possible failure.

This is weird coming coincided with large-scale provocations with chemical weapon and a sharp tightening of the best positions of the U.S. and its allies on the Syrian issue, right up to the statements of readiness to launch a military intervention against Syria.

Why are Americans suddenly went on a severe worsening of the situation in the criteria when they are in front of this pretty intense kerf in the peace process in the framework of the «Geneva-2»? Indeed, in Syria no high configurations that could encourage the U.S. such a move did not work.

Versions in this respect a lot. But the answer to this question is still necessary to find in Washington.

War book

Together with that, without waiting for the outcome of the UN Commission, Barack Obama said that an attack on Syria will be done lately. President majestic powers can not throw their words to the wind. Now it is a matter of honor.

But Nobel Peace Prize winner to start a war indecent. And U.S. President decided to enlist the support of representatives of the South American nation. Proceed to Checkout Congress — at least some legal authority. Now depends on the decision of the forthcoming Congress not only the fate of Syria, and the entire region.

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