MEGA SS MYANMAR, Ms?8.4. The Communication from the March 27, 2011 mega-earthquake forecasts made by SS Myanmar Ms?7.8. The system is already prepared a mega-earthquake with M = 8.8, so further monitoring will do in Mega SS Myanmar Ms?8.4. Information is very scarce, we know two disasters in 1762, 1897 (see Tab.2) And unfinished last seismic cycle. Arakan subduction zone closed in 1762, almost 250 years. Recent catastrophic earthquake in Mega SS occurred in the north of the system in 1897. The earthquake caused damage in 300 000 km2 with an average radius of 250 km (maximum displacement — up to 11 m, 1,500 people died) in India, Bhutan, Bangladesh, western Myanmar. The system in the north of the Bay of Bengal Indian plate collision with East Asia has created canned (currently inactive) subduction zone in the form of a gigantic funnel "sleep" 20 km layer of sedimentary rock. When moving large elastic Indian plate to the SE, its segment in Bengalskogo Gulf deformed and plunges rather clockwise twisted and pressed for SE Asia. This segment of the Indian plate is pushed to the north under the Shillong Plateau, and the eastern Arakan engaged with the micro-plate, which shows the seismic activity of right-hand-strike-slip faults of Sagaing, wild boar and Kaldan (see Figs 2 and 3). All these processes are controlled under the seismic system. When the entropy reaches a critical value (about 100-150 years time) Arakan microplate hardened (above active faults internal lock), then periodically triggered or Zone Shillong or Arakan. Now the turn of the Arakan. Figure 3 shows a red line potentially dangerous locked region in the plane of subduction to depths of 30-35 km, where presumably focus more tension. Energy diagram and experience show that there is prepared a catastrophic earthquake M = 8.8.
This is confirmed by GPS observations. For the region of instability in the track diagram in the case of Myanmar, compared with Japan and Chile, static entropy production prevails over dynamic. This means that the process is slow and long "ripen" in time, and the loss of stability (subduction) can occur suddenly, without prior seismic activity.
In Tab.2 and on Figure 4 shows the values of the fragment track training catastrophic earthquake with M = 8.8 at the beginning of June 2011. Accumulated entropy is W = 20.531. This is the second only to the record value of the entropy from the recent earthquake in Japan (W = 20.586).Since the system is ill-defined, we have calculated the attractor points for earthquake-indicators (yellow line in Figure 4):
K= 0.373W+9.949 (2)
For May 2011 K = 17.611. Substituting in Eq (2) is critical values of entropy Wk= 20,542. Lull in seismic entropy reaches this value by February 2013. So, until the end of 2012 on the NE Bay of Bengal may occur catastrophic earthquake with M = 8.8 and a powerful tsunami.
Foci of earthquakes in 1762 and 1897 in the north of the Bay of Bengal. 20 km sedimentary deposits and canned subduction zone along the profile WE shown in Figure 3. The red line shows a potentially dangerous region in the plane locked subduction to depths of 30-35 km, where presumably focus more tension.
Schematic section of the profile WE Fig.2. In the north of the Bay of Bengal, in the zone of the Indian plate dives under East Asia formed Arakan seismically active microplate, which is engaged with the Indian plate. Subduction zone (blue lines) seismic shut and covered 20 km. a layer of sedimentary rock. It rests in the north and pressed under Shillong Plateau. In the 250-300 years periodically srabatyvet subduction zone is the north Plateau Shilong, the coastal Arakan, causing widespread destruction and tsunami. By the end of 2012 could trigger a locked zone between the Indian plate and Arakan microplate. It prepared a mega earthquake with M = 8.8.
Track diagram Mega SS Myanmar. Earthquake-indicators found attractor (yellow line). Shows a hypothetical point of instability of earthquakes in 1762 and 1897. Until the end of 2012 the track will be in the zone of instability in the coastal area of Arakan in the Northeast Bay of Bengal.