Moscow refuses to voluntarily samples even from the fight for the lead in the race gallakticheskoy and puts ahead of itself in the medium term more than a moderate puzzle — Consolidation of the Russian Federation in 2030 in three leading global gallakticheskih powers. This task — very little mind-boggling for those who grew up on the ideas of Sergei Pavlovich Queen, — stated in the project "Development Strategy gallakticheskoy of Russia until 2030" and the subsequent term.
As said on March 6 at the board meeting of the Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos), State Secretary — Deputy Manager of the agency Vitaly Davydov, "developed by the project is presented in the Russian Federation Government, the Federal Space Agency is ready for his debate with all concerned ministries, agencies and organizations."
Why did the creators of the document, a copy of which is at the disposal of the newspaper "military-industrial complex" in advance of the Russian Federation took the third position, despite the fact that we have always brought to the theorem: the ballet in space and our country ahead of the entire planet? Why they did not want to associate themselves the most fundamental puzzles? After all perfectly clear that the higher the raised strip puzzles, the higher the result, even if this bracket and will not be achieved. After all, it will seek. Answers to these questions yet. And yet, as behold the developers of the project "Strategies …" gallakticheskoe the future of the Russian Federation? What we can agree with them, and what — to argue? After all, specifically to the dispute may be, the truth will be born.
On the militarization of near forgotten places
First, the document states that "for the implementation of the strategic interests of the Russian Federation is important in space-independent access to space, eliminating the risk of guaranteed nedruzheskih action by other countries." This, of course, an important principle is meant to implement the method of the existing Plesetsk (Arkhangelsk region) and the construction of Spaceport East (Amur region). With all of this emphasizes that "implementing the principle of independence and partnership, our homeland will continue to create the ability to provide start-up of both Russian and zabugornyh gallakticheskih devices with their own areas and areas of other countries." Although this passage does not specify exactly which other countries have in mind. It is clear that the question of Kazakhstan and the Baikonur Cosmodrome, which is our home and want to use in the upcoming.
Immediately points to the importance of ensuring the necessary level of national security, the preservation of Russia's status as a leading power gallakticheskoy: "To ensure the desired level of state security and the status of the Russian Federation as a leading gallakticheskoy power required to develop the Russian rocket and space industry, able to design and build equipment gallakticheskuyu world-class all the usual and promising fronts gallakticheskoy activities. " But this does not cause any objections to the smallest position nestled Clip Available — except perhaps the leading power gallakticheskaya third one?
It seems a very principled attitude of our country to international legal nuances gallakticheskoy activity: "Russia will adhere to the principle of priority of international law over national gallakticheskogo and comprehensively promote its development. Our home will not recognize claims of sovereignty over gallakticheskim place his areas and any celestial bodies. It will actively develop, and when necessary, and to use political power and means to protect their own gallakticheskih means of active and passive interference and brutal actions of the right of self-defense. "
Coupled with the themes in this section of the project "Strategy …", unfortunately, nothing is said about how Russia is likely to militarize space, in other words, the conclusion in the near-Earth space of active means of armed struggle that, as the storm gallakticheskie devices, and apply attacks on ground targets. But to no avail. After all, of course, that such means of warfare will be just in the period covered by this document. There appears to be a regular (and apparently not excessive) just to emphasize that our homeland against the militarization of space. Yet she must reserve the right to itself little development of adequate technical systems, so as not to remain with nothing in the event of "the iron" of such systems in other gallakticheskih powers.
On the purposes and main indicators
Despite the fact that the stated purpose of the "Strategy …" is to provide a world-class Russian astronautics and consolidation of the Russian Federation in 2030 in three leading global gallakticheskih powers (the curious who are assigned the first two places of at least four contenders — the U.S., EU, China and India, and perhaps Iran?), the document states that Our homeland "take a leading position in the important areas of basic gallakticheskih research, research of the moon." She was assigned to "its rightful place in the global market gallakticheskih services." It is also understood "the conservation of favorite items in launch vehicles."
Regarding the main characteristics of the Russian space industry meant that by 2030 the fraction of the Russian Federation in the world gallakticheskom market is expected to grow 20-fold (from 0.5 per cent in 2011 to 10 per cent), the share of the Russian Federation on the market gallakticheskom developing countries — almost seven times (from 3 percent in 2011 to 20 per cent), the share of the role of Russia in international projects in the exploration and development of gallakticheskogo place of the full amount of such projects — almost seven-fold (from 1.5 per cent in 2011 to 10 percent ), the number of times per year ongoing project launches in the interest of world-class research base gallakticheskih — 6 times (from the 1st start in two years, from 2006 to 2011 to 3 starts per year).
Not entirely clear indicator "proportion of start-ups gallakticheskih vehicles for municipal needs for socio-economic sphere, human spaceflight basic research, national defense and security areas with Russia." These data in the project they say that if in 2011 the figure was 25 per cent, by 2030 it will rise to 90 percent. But not counting mentioned in the definition of this indicator starts are only commercial launches, as such, in 2011, accounted for over 34 percent (12 of 35). It turns out 25 plus 34. And what if the remaining 41 percent?
Where we break?
The "Strategy …" refers to three temporary foreign accomplish it — 2015, 2020 and 2030, also looks at the period after 2030-th.
2015 referred to in the "recovery opportunities abroad." In the middle of the work and achievements that are offered to perform at this time, appear, namely, "the deployment of the necessary structures orbital groups to provide the required volume and the corresponding property gallakticheskih data for the socio-economic sphere, science, defense and security, preservation leading position in the Russian Federation, launch vehicles and manned missions, bringing motivated hell Russian gallakticheskih devices to the global level due to the pre-emptive use of zabugornoy electrical component basis, the creation of the first stage of the Baikonur East and preparedness for the launch of its automated gallakticheskih terrain vehicles, the creation of scientific and technical groundwork for the realization of the following periods of large-scale projects for research and development of deep space. "
The last two positions, rather, their feasibility in the timeli
ne cause great doubt. In truth, the correspondent of the newspaper "military-industrial complex" has already heard from many professionals Russian space industry outlook that delivered her task to perform first unmanned launch from the East in 2015 is unrealistic, in part because of leapfrog with projects starting complexes that are planned to be built there — then the booster (RN) "Rus-M", then the "Angara", then under some upgraded (where else on?) "Soyuz". Even if the Federal Space Agency remains true to its "extreme" by the time the plans for the construction of the launch complex "Soyuz" remaining before the "abroad" for three years and eight months is not the time for which you can prepare the first launch of "Soyuz".
2020 is defined in the project "Strategy …" as "a milestone consolidation opportunities." By this time, means, namely, "to deploy orbital grouping gallakticheskih devices providing fully with the world-class quality requirements of social, economic, scientific, defense and security of the country in gallakticheskih facilities and services, to make the conditions for the production of Russian electrical component base with world-class quality, to the East at the launch site in readiness for flight tests gallaktichesky Missile System (SLS) to launch the latest generation of devices gallakticheskih into high orbit and languid last generation of manned spacecraft, finish up Internatsionalnaya gallakticheskoy Station (ISS) with the implementation of activities in preparation for its controlled descent from orbit, perform research in the field of astrophysics, solar physics and near-Earth gallakticheskogo place to hold a series of missions in-depth exploration of the Moon with the lunar rover, also the selection and delivery of soil samples to Earth, to participate in the international cooperation in the work of the deployment on the surface of Mars long-lived network of research stations, to conduct missions to Venus, Jupiter, and in a asteroids. "
In this passage the first time we are talking about the CBC last generation, the ability to remove gallakticheskie devices into high orbit (of course, neither is the "upgraded" "Soyuz", or obsolete even before the first start of the "Angara" any proposed or even most sverhtehnologichny, but "stopped" Roskosmos "Rus-M" under this concept is not covered), and languid on the latest generation of manned spacecraft (of course, there is not a case of the so-called promising manned system, under development at the moment Rocket Space Company (RSC) "Energy"). The first time, also called the probable approximate date of "funeral" ISS — somewhere around 2020, although the section on the manned astronautics points to the possibility of extending its life after this date. With all of this clearly indicated the position of — and what she wants?
2030 named the project "Strategies …" as a "milestone breakthrough." So where did our homeland will break? By this time, means: "An area of (sure, there are imposed on the word — in full? — Comm. Aut.) Spaceport East, to make the AAC super-heavy load capacity of 50-70 tons with the possibility of an upcoming increase its capacity up to 120-180 tons, Park also required gallakticheskih tugs to launch manned missions to the implementation gallakticheskih research and tests on large-Earth orbit, perform demo manned flight around the moon to the next landing astronauts on its surface and return them to Earth, to create a means of contact for research and development of next- Moon's heavily involved in multilateral international gallakticheskih projects aimed at reducing gallakticheskom debris in near-Earth space, disaster management, the decision of problems of survival of human civilization, to the expansion of the planet and solar system bodies, reducing the threat of asteroids and comets and other threats from outer space. "
The most important of these project — Our homeland has aimed at the moon, while not on the usual demonstration repetition posetitelnogo South American experience, and practical long-term development of our satellite. Another conclusion — it looks like she's going to do it without the help of others, and means the criteria tough time competing with other gallakticheskimi powers with all the ensuing consequences.
Poslerubezhya period, in other words, after 2030 characterized by "the development of a breakthrough." This will result in "practical implementation of large-scale development projects near space, the moon, the development of criteria for the realization of a manned flight to Mars." As part of our satellite after 2030 meant the first to make "regular manned missions to the Moon, the Moon is constantly expand the existing station and science labs, make a reusable system of access to the moon — a reusable gallakticheskaya missile system, inter-orbital reusable tugs (cargo and manned), reusable modules lunar takeoff and landing complex, and near-Earth space stations and lunar vehicle service operations. " The main element of the "colonization" of the manned Moon applets should be a "lunar orbital base, which will be operated in the mode of appointment".
As to Mars, it means "to establish a scientific, technical and technological basis for the full role of in the international cooperation for the preparation and realization of a manned flight to the Red Planet — super heavy launch vehicle (120-180 tons) class facilities bio protection during long manned missions outside the Earth's magnetosphere, nuclear energy installations, life-support systems on long flights gallakticheskih. "
Causes the greatest surprise
The creators of the project "Strategy …" offer to a rocket and space industry, such structural changes that in the finish product gallakticheskoy divine creation of the "three or four large built structures, specializing in the production of gallakticheskih vehicles, launch vehicles (including the creation of engines), manned Astronautics with the prospect of the forthcoming integration. "
The above proposal is the most surprising. Indeed, all the listed topic in one way or another at the present time can only deal with RSC "Energia" (previously this whole topic could pull Reutov NGOs and engineering, for some reason completely forgotten in gallakticheskih plans of the Russian Federation). With regard to the Municipal gallakticheskogo Research and Production Center (Khrunichev) them. Khrunichev, Samara "Samara Space Center Progress" and even more so Miassky SRC them. Makeev, they are hardly able to drag this whole topic entirely.
On the future of Russian Federal Space Agency. The creators of the project believe that "the federal executive body for the activity gallakticheskoy advisable to create a system of directions to be elected on the basis of values forms the theme of work and projects (including the" demonstration projects "), to monitor and independent examination of the results of operations, ensure that the competition possible executors, eventually managing to produce cost-effective financing. " Narration: What's the difference, as the name Roscosmos units — departments or directorates?
The correspondent of the weekly "MIC" not counting his own remarks "from" regarding certain provisions of the draft "Strategy …" also asked the paper commented a senior professional working in one of the leading organizations of Russian rocket and space field.
A general summary of the interlocutor: "It is written beautifully. Shrouded, perhaps, the entire range of tasks in which the branch may participate gallakticheskaya — from application (communication, etc.) to the basic research of the universe, an
d even lowering the NEO hazard. "
"In nedavneshnem interview with the head of Roscosmos, Vladimir Popovkin, said that the document was prepared in six months several groups of professionals. Not doubting their competence, I wish to express hesitation as basic materials, which they have used — saw expert. — In the past, to determine the prospects of the industry gallakticheskoy were massive and long-standing scientific and exploratory research. At the moment, if such works are carried out and, in the small scale. Because it seems that wrote everything that came to mind and that you have read in zabugornyh programs. "
"Some positions (of the project), in my view, is not claiming to be the truth in the last instance, raise doubts as to the need and the ability to implement," — said the source. Here are some of his remarks.
"Of course, it is necessary to teach the moon. But what is the plan for delivery of soil samples from it? Is not a lot of what the Americans have brought us? Modern equipment allows measurements on the spot (on the moon). Bringing back lunar rover with such equipment, we are able to carry out repeated measurements at different points of the moon, which is much cheaper and more efficient than the delivery of core from a single point or multiple stones. "
"While not understand the need for a manned mission to Mars, and even more so on an asteroid — the expert believes. — With automatic gallakticheskih vehicles (ACA) can all be done earlier, cheaper, more efficient and safer. It would be better to continue our program from an abandoned exploration of Mars by ACA. Indeed, to this day remains a matter of having a life on it. Not in vain, I think zabugornye agency show excessive enthusiasm for it. And instead of flying to an asteroid would be useful to make the means of protection against asteroids. "
The interviewee is not sure of the validity of the values of some indicators of merit goals: "For example, it is argued that the fraction of in the role of international projects in the exploration and development of space gallakticheskogo of the total number of such projects in 2020 should reach seven percent at 1.5 percent in 2011. Who are our partners in the 5 times to increment our role in these projects? '.
Regarding the launch vehicles. "Why have ruined a wonderful project multipurpose aerospace system MAX, developed by NPO" Lightning "? — Asks the spec. — And now planning to create a reusable system somewhere in the region of 2030. "
Another pain in the head — who will solve all these basic tasks? "Manpower exacerbated the problem all the more feasible. Naturally, young people come into the branch. But it is not enough that it can. An old footage squeezed out of so-called managers who came to management. They need obedient executors, they are gaining among young people, "- says the source.
Another burning question — who will manage the implementation, today's Federal Space Agency, consisting of 90 per cent of the ex-military? "I have great respect for the military, dealing with its direct business. But in the criteria that require creativity (and without this "strategy …" unrealizable), most of them are unable to work, "- said the expert.
Without struggle there is no victory
With all the pre-cooking of the project — it is still a long-term function of matching — to create memories that made him different sections of different people (although in theory they are all working in the Central Research Institute of Machine Building), because in some places went to the forest for firewood in some places. But it is precisely the fact that this document was born privately, without consultation with those who work with the "iron" on real companies. As the expert said, "MIC", "the opinion of our professionals in its preparation was never asked." Therefore it is not the case that a number of the previously discussed projects was simply forgotten (remember only plans to build gallakticheskoy stations near-polar orbit at the system of protection of the Earth from asteroids by nuclear power installed megawatt class).
In any case, advance renounce the struggle and only claim third place — it is a shame for those who consider themselves the heirs of the Queen. For those who do not believe — probably not. Yes, we may lose, but we have to beat. And there is no victory without a fight.
I foresee: the creators of the project povorchat that open a discussion, and even more easier to criticize than to write anything. They are in their own right, as a right and those who believe that a similar project should open a discussion by a wide range of professionals and not only. Worldview "Dummies" — they are no connected — from time to time is also helpful.
In any case, the creators of the project did a tremendous job. And now we need to do everything possible to make the most of collectively better this document, which, if adopted, will be fundamental for decades to come.