12.10.11.Po data Astrakhan scholars in recent years, the level of the Caspian Sea significantly reduced. Especially these processes have increased dramatically this year.
So, from 2006 to 2010, the sea level dropped by 30 cm and set at around 27.25 meters below sea level, in 2011, dropped another 25-30 cm, reaching 27.5 meters. Experts predict that in the next three to four years, sea levels could drop to -28 m And that, in previous years' experience means serious problems for the environment and economy of the region, in the first place — the maritime and fisheries.
TO LOWER TO HIGHER
The level of the Caspian Sea — vacillates. "Research retrospectively suggest the cyclical fluctuations of 200, 400 years, traced the 11-year cycle — the director FGBU" Caspian Marine Scientific Research Center "Hydromet Sergei Monks. — There are ancient, annual, seasonal fluctuations, the contribution made by wind-surges. "
In the last century the amplitude level of the Caspian Sea was about three meters. The most dramatic decline — more than two meters — occurred in the 30th and 70th years of the twentieth century. In 1977, the level was 29 meters below sea level. Since 1978, he went up, by 2.4 meters by 1995, almost compensate for the previous fall. Steady decline began in 2006, and in the last two years, especially in the present, this process is significantly accelerated. According to the Coordinating Committee on Hydrometeorology and Pollution Monitoring of the Caspian Sea (CASPCOM), from 2006 to 2010, the sea level dropped by 35 cm and reached -27.25 pm According to the researchers, there is every reason to believe that in 2001 the level of the sea reduced by 30 cm, as compared with 2006 — 60 cm and this trend will continue at least until 2015. "It's hard to say how likely it is that the situation that there was 80 years ago, will repeat again — said in a bulletin CASPCOM. — But the probability that in the next three to four years, sea level has fallen to the level of -28.00 m, is very high. In this case, it should be noted that the mark, according to the history of the Caspian Sea, is critical for its ecosystem, and for the marine sector. "
It would seem that reducing a meter or two of the sea breeze. However, scientists believe it is critical to decrease. "The northern part of the Caspian Sea shallow, average depth — four or five meters, — explains Mr. Monk. — The fall in the level meter for the amount of water decreases, and as the coast in the northern part of the Caspian Sea is flat, the sea recedes. "
However, in the years to change the borders of the Caspian Sea is not expected, as it was in 1977, when the rate fell to -29 m Nevertheless, the problems begin, and have already begun.
First it felt the sea. "If the level of the Caspian Sea falls naturally shallow channels, — said a source in one of the ports of Astrakhan. — Large-draft vessels of 4-5 meters will experience and are already experiencing difficulty in passing through the Volga-Caspian Sea canal. " As the "urbanite" Captain seaport "Astrakhan" September 12 has already made an order to change the maximum draft for sailing vessels on VKMSK. "This does not mean that large vessels will not come to us at all, — said the source. — If the actual benchmark is below the normal level, the courts will have to wait until the water rises. This downtime, economic loss. "
Catches from the bottom
The expected and fisheries. "During the lowering of the Caspian Sea conditions for the reproduction of fish in the Volga River and the Volga-Akhtuba floodplain worse — says the curator of environmental projects CaspNIRKh, Ph.D. Damir Katunin. — As we know from the experience of the last century, the delta extends into the sea, shallow channels, puts spawning grounds. In the eastern part of the North Caspian Sea, which is poorly perceived Volga runoff due to the nature of the relief, is highly saline, with the food supply dies. Our fish there is not, is in the western section, where due to large concentrations of food supply is also getting worse. " All of this will inevitably be reflected in the catches. "If now we catch about 45 000 tons in the 60-70's of the last century, when the level reached -29 m, catches dropped to 30-33 million tons, almost a third — said Damir Katunin. — Particularly affected most valuable species: roach, perch, bream. Least affected predatory and freshwater — carp, perch, rudd, which are not commercially valuable. Naturally, it will affect the economy — from the bottom catches, quotas, the reduction can occur fishing enterprises. In these conditions will survive are those who have a strong financial base, small can splurge. " But most importantly — the consequences of this disaster will be felt for years. "Even when the sea level is rising, the restoration of fish stocks is not immediate, since changing environmental conditions — says Damir Katunin. — After the fall of the sea level in the 70 years of desalination was only eight years old. "
What will happen next? On this account forecasts of experts disagree. "Based on the analysis of the secular fluctuations and climate change scenarios, most of the predictions are inclined to think that the level of the Caspian Sea in the present age will be raised, — says Sergey Monks. — So that we have a temporary, though very serious difficulties. " Damir Katunin foresees another scenario. "I think the sharp decline that occurred today will go down in a steady state, and it will be very slow decline for decades," — said the scientist.
"Citizen" № 40, 12.11.2011
Source: Astrakhan news