If, according to the American political system, certain it is not clear who will take the presidency in Snow White House, here on China is still transparent. Name the new Chinese favorite is clear to all, and the name is — Xi Jinping. But the predictable change of power in China does not mean that the brand new galaxy of Chinese top managers will be fully and completely support the policy, which is carried out under the control of today's President Hu Jintao. With all of this, neither the Xi or his political allies now do not apply in respect of the same for some aspects of Chinese policy will be maintained in the coming years. And when you consider that segodnyaschy financial situation in China does not look bright, something new management will first have to solve specific economic goals.
According to studies, it is clear now that the Chinese economy has to reduce their speed. Before the crisis, the yearly growth rate is over a 10-11% per year, now growth, though still impressive, but still goes down. Now growth are within 7.7-8.1%. Of course, these characteristics for at least some other countries might now seem more than persuasive, but at the level of global integration, which now With years of China's financial system, you can read about the rather negative trend.
On the background of the news that the first will be held on November XVIII Congress of the CPC, the exchanges have responded to the positive side. The official purchasing managers' index in China (manufacturing sector) in October rose to 50.2, breaking the psychological mark of fifty Fri Chinese Litsun economist Zhang said that growth was retarded under any circumstances can not be called a habitual process. In his view, the situation in China is now such that the right approach to the realization of the economic potential growth economy in the next year could again reach pre-crisis level. But the words of the person representing the Center for research and development of the State Council, is one thing, but concrete realities — is quite different. And these concrete realities now they say that the outlined slowdown in the Chinese financial system is connected, first, with a very cool relations with the United States of America.
After a disastrous trip to China, South American Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, two-way things have gone in the real dead end. Washington began to put pressure on China, announcing that he was artificially lowers the rate of the yuan, which makes Chinese products in terms of competitiveness of U.S. products above. And here besides representatives of the "Pentagon" stated that is increasingly faced with hacker attacks launched from the area of China, and the purpose of these attacks is Tipo intervention not only in the military-technical projects for the U.S., and in economic development. In other words, the Americans accused the Chinese of cheating and stealing, to which China was required to respond quite strongly to the mentality of this country form. Things reached the point that members of the Chinese Foreign Ministry accused the United States in response to the policy of pressure on China, which is fully recognized hopeless.
In such a situation from a new Chinese control almost everything depends. To start Xi Jinping and his entourage will determine, whether China is willing to continue on the previously scheduled rate, and means, to make come the same caustic saliva Washington. If the approach to the economic development in China continues, hardly worth the wait wagering positions on economic growth. But is that a slowdown in the Chinese economy to blame only the United States, with the pulses generated by the crisis there, agree far not all experts. There is a perception that comes to his own logical end of the period itself rampant Chinese economic boom. According to the most pessimistic scenario, growth China's economy will slow down once a year due to the fact that all applicable financial instruments now have developed their own resources. It turns out that shiny new Chinese management have to invent something or completely new, or follow the path of other countries with massive economies: the United States or Japan — in other words, start samokreditovatsya, and then run across and destructive practice of cross-crediting.
With all this current China with the same U.S. or Japan can be associated with a stretch. All because, regardless the scale of the Chinese economy, it is still very feeble in terms of security of the Chinese people. According to the level of per capita annual GDP China loses land of the rising sun at about 9, and the United States — more than 10 times! By the way, the Russian Federation on this index, China loses almost tripled.
Yes, it can be said that South American security develops, including, and thanks to huge borrowings from the banking sector, but this is not the most important issue for ordinary people. The government may be a hundred times the rich, but for all that a low level of income of its people crosses all this apparent economic strength.
In this regard, newcomer generation of Chinese politicians have decided on the introduction of new instruments or else the modernization of conventional economic tools, if China does not want to fall to the total lending and lending to maintain the momentum of growth. But for all that Xi can not wait for the new test. The test may be due to the structural liberalization of the Chinese economy and the "releasing" the yuan to float freely.
Do not forget that the yuan tipped in the not to distant future status gravedigger bucks. But such is the status of the Chinese government will be able to buy the currency, if authorities of this country will not delay the course of artificial boundaries. But then the problem is that as China goes up for public auction on the yuan, the rate of exchange of the currency simultaneously increase by 25-30% (at least, for this they say economic analysts). And this growth will put severe constraints in Chinese products, giving odds goods from Europe and the USA. In such a case, the new Chinese government may be held hostage to their own own self-reform that is now sort of implied. Of course, in the long term, China can benefit from the liberalization of the renminbi, but somehow people are more accustomed to looking at what is now, and will not continue as tomorrow. And now — the slowdown and artificial preferences of Chinese products, tomorrow — a possible lowering of the rate of production of manifestations of increased competition, which is able to lead to an increase in unemployment.
The script is really pessimistic, and so on Xi can hardly wait for the new (possible) Chinese favorite will go on the path of liberalization. Most likely, financial liberalization will take place verbally, to gain time and to force the West to believe that China plays by the global rules. Chinese politicians — even those pragmatists.
This is o
nly a reference in Russia early 90's authorities have managed to open the tap, the water bearing the full economic liberalization, as a result of which the financial system of the country was the richest absolutely washed away.
And if the Chinese are pragmatists, but recently in China, of course, will find some other moves to return to double-digit growth rates. Invent a new economic mechanisms here (after all, the Chinese Inventions of history can tell almost everything), and whether these arrangements will share (like gunpowder, the compass and paper) from the rest of the world, this is the era of the world will find out in the control China Xi Jinping.