Global warming does not break the cycle of El Niño

Fossilized clams that lived off the coast of Antarctica in the early Eocene (about 50 million years ago), told an international group of researchers long history of El Niño.

If Linda Ivan from Syracuse University (USA) and her colleagues read that right, the modern theory of predicting El Niño incessant result of global warming, are incorrect.

During El Nino rains flooded Peru. (Photo timekin.)

Scientists have analyzed the annual rings in mollusk shells and tied them with climate variation characteristic of El Niño. This phenomenon is reflected in the extraordinary warming surface of the Pacific Ocean in the east-equatorial, occurring every 2-7 years. It leads to heavy rains in Peru, devastating droughts in Australia and affects the entire global weather.

El Niño is the warm phase of the so-called Southern Oscillation — scale fluctuations of the surface temperature of tropical waters of the Pacific Ocean. Some experts believe that global warming will break this cycle, and El Niño is established for a very long time, with consequent enormous socio-economic and environmental consequences for the whole world.

One way to predict the future — find out Thursabout in the past. In times of shellfish in question, in Antarctica was as warm as in today's Turkey. However El Nino was not maintained at all times. Judging by the year layers in the shells, the frequency of this phenomenon was the same as now — 2-7 years. Because clams live up to a hundred years, it was possible to trace this enviable constancy for a solid time.

The researchers compared the results obtained in the study of mollusks, with the data analysis of tree rings of petrified driftwood lying in the same layer of sediment. The picture was exactly the same.

The study is published in the online version of the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Prepared according to PhysOrg.


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