Sluggish conflict between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have acquired a steadily worsening. On a scale of explosive developed by foreign experts, he confidently entered the top-10 of the. Attention and anxiety caused by Western researchers completely, given the extraordinary importance of the region for the moment. In the case of the transfer of Iranian conflict in a large-scale military action, the process will inevitably affect the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus. In a similar situation, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are very considerable enthusiasm for the major players in the international arena — such as our native land, the United States, China and the EU.
Relations between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, all known causes have been cold for a long time. Between adjacent states in 2000 introduced a visa regime, and there is no regular air and ground post. Apart from the constant hassle and discord at the border, gaining the confrontation caused by the dispute over rassredotachivanii aquatic resources.
The emergence of the "water" of the conflict dates from the beginning of 2009, when Dushanbe gave the command to start the restoration of the Rogun hydroelectric power station. To prevent the construction, Uzbekistan, using its geographic location, the train began to blockade neighbor.
The fact is that in the case of entry into operation of Rogun HPP can be a significant drop in the Amu Darya, and this can lead to a true economic disaster in Uzbekistan. After three-quarters of the population live in rural areas and one way or another connected with agriculture.
Despite the protests of a neighbor, Tajikistan in the summer of last year declared the end of the preliminary work to damming Vakhsha. The final decision on the continuation of the work was delayed until the examination of the Global Bank.
Most likely, the specific activation of works on Rogun HPP caused a new exacerbation of the conflict. The fall of Tashkent railway routes intensified the blockade. The pretext was an explosion near the border with Afghanistan. In November, under the guise of an ongoing investigation Tipo attack, Uzbekistan has detained about 300 freight cars for Tajikistan — grain, flour, cement, diesel fuel, jet fuel, gas and other goods.
First, in December Alzira Ferreira, director of the Tajik Cabinet Global food programs from the UN, said that the transport blockade poses many inhabitants of Tajikistan to the brink of survival. Because of the delay food prices soared, also was blocked humanitarian aid for kids Khatlon.
Added more fuel to the fire incident at the border, when he died under mysterious circumstances Uzbek border. Uzbekistan plunged into panic residents of border areas by pulling the border tanks and artillery. Another, more hostile to people of both countries, a reprisal of official Tashkent was closed nine of the sixteen Fri crossing the border. In this case, all of these acts occurred without any warnings and explanations so frightened inhabitants was entirely due.
In the criteria defrost davneshnego conflict Tajikistan and Uzbekistan will require brokers to ensure his frisky and measured settlement.
Central Asian experts complain that the partners in the community of not paying enough attention to their dilemmas, which are often not even recognized officially. So the place of the arbitrator for today is still free.
Meanwhile, and Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan recently time began to occupy the position expressed by the pro-American foreign policy.
Over the past two years, one hundred percent recovered affairs of Uzbekistan and the West, frozen after the suppression of unrest in 2005. In September last year, Obama thanked the Karimov for his help in the settlement of the Afghan conflict, highlighting the importance for all this republic to solve the problems of this kind in the region, and wished the upcoming cramped cooperation.
The intensity of contacts between Russia and Uzbekistan in the last time very inferior to contact this Asian country with Britain and the United States. Contacts with Russia significantly less than reported in the local press. Activation of cooperation with the West against the background of the cooling of relations with Russia, not only in the political sphere and in the sphere of economy. Recently time Uzbekistan in its activities immediately turned several Russian companies. Among them, for example, the network of shops "Book World" and "United Aircraft Corporation".
In order to illustrate the relation of Tajikistan to the United States, rather comes from the fact that the criteria for severe energy savings for the local population (in the winter cold light cut one for 2-3 hours), the Central Asian republic uninterrupted electricity supplies in the U.S. controlled Afghanistan.
Against the background of such a touching concern for the Yankees in particular stands out sensational incident with the pilots, one of whom was a citizen of the Russian Federation. Pilots due to unexpected situations were obliged to land in Tajikistan, where they kindly sent to jail. And not just a handy intervention of higher officials of the Russian Federation, and the threat of deportation of Tajik migrants from Russia, that the authorities finally released the innocent.
Last year's tour Hillary Clinton on the Central Asian countries showed a strong intrigued by the U.S. in the region. The route visits to states for itself: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Many experts, both Russian and zabugornye believe that the United States takes care of the Central Asian countries, pursuing the true task — the creation of their own areas of military bases, aimed at curbing the Russian Federation, China and Iran. Moreover, the project is planned in the South American branch of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan from other Central Asian republics to the creation of the new Silk Road. Experts say that such katigorichnye geopolitical shifts in the region will cause the reorientation of some Central Asian countries, first of Turkmenistan, China and the EU. So Makarov, there is a real threat to a complete change of the political landscape, which may have unintended consequences.