Resounding case of three billion fraud officials holding "Oboronservis" jeopardize Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, is unlikely to end with his dismissal. But the functions of the military departments can be trimmed, and his head could lose goodwill of President Vladimir Putin. Wait the official results of the investigation, the press and experts are divided on the possible hypotheses "zateyschikah" and the consequences of the scandal.
Analyzing the last action "-independent newspaper" implies that Serdyukov they came as a surprise. According to rumors in the blogosphere, the minister sharpened, and perhaps even destroy the works of his wife Julia — the daughter of Viktor Zubkov, a former prime minister and the 1st of the closest associates of Putin. At the same time, it emphasizes the publication, precisely because of his father in law Serdyukov arrived in a huge policy.
Military analyst Vladislav Shurigin, in general, is convinced that Serdyukov's personal life, his family business and tipo the fact that he ceased to be son in law Zubkov, hardly could be a catalyst for the scandal. "In Russian politics has not been a case to a career bureaucrat such a scale as Serdyukov, influenced his personal life," — he says on the website "Namedni.ru."
The hand of the Kremlin
Another version, which reports to the "NG" — "unfriendly" act in relation to the Minister of Defence by the head of the Kremlin administration, Sergei Ivanov, who headed the Defense Ministry to Serdyukov. Newspaper sources in the Defense Ministry are turning their attention to the fact that the active check "Oboronservis" by the auditors of the Accounting Chamber has not passed without the indirect role of Ivanov.
Relevant facts of monetary disturbances in the holding have been identified after there as chairman of the board of directors under the patronage of the Minister Sergei Ivanov instead of defense came last chief of the Head Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff Alexander Shlyakhturov having financial education. Vladimir Putin, Sergei Ivanov and Alexander Shlyakhturov once served together in the external intelligence.
"The collective rebellion"
At the same time, the magazine "Results" writes, referring to its sources, that there are two prerequisites scandal: "stormy economic activity," Serdyukov and the confidence that gives control of the Minister of the country.
"Reasons dime a dozen — from the scandal with the purchase of the French" Mistral "to squabbles over prices for Russian military equipment from the competitions for the purchase of food to stock sell-off lands Defense Ministry. And note that in all the scandals featured a great deal and great people. Serdyukov same feeling support of government and bent his line decisively, and often bold. Even when planted for the defense of a deputy prime minister (Dmitry Rogozin. — Ed.) minister speed is not slowed down, "- said in a story.
A source close to the government said, "Results": "Everything seems that a deal" Oboronservis " Serdyukov trying to deprive goodwill BB "(Putin. — Ed.). idea is that in this case the Minister can agree on what issues though.
A similar outlook expresses the browser "NG": sonorous case against "Oboronservis" — a signal Serdyukov about, that he "never crossed the line." Also the fact that maybe it's time functions Defense cuts, especially not typical military department: real estate trade, the elimination of ammunition, identification and control of prices for military products, zabugornogo arms business etc. So many have Serdyukov appeared invisible competitors — in government, in the midst of governors, MPs, businessmen and politicians, writes creator.
"Stallions Never change a winning"
"-Independent newspaper" concludes that Vladimir Putin will most likely will not put the issue of changing the minister of defense — for two reasons. In-1's, he gave Serdyukov carte blanche to reform the army, which is not yet finished, and means horse in midstream change is not necessary. In-2, in the criteria of increasing impermanence factor in Russia to change the power minister is also very dangerous.
The correspondent of "Vedomosti" Alexei Nikolsky, talking about what is happening in his own blog on the newspaper's website, also comes to the conclusion that it is unlikely Serdyukov's days are numbered at the ministerial post. Promulgated by the Investigative Committee of the texture of the case does not look "sverhubeditelnoy," explains journalist.
It shows that the substitution of the minister at this time will result in the disruption at the very moment when the army began pumping large economical means. Maybe, at the end the scandal will change countless young official from the tax authorities and businesses, which Serdyukov put to control the funds. "Change for, say, the old KGB. But how long will it take?" — Asks the rhetorical question maker.
In turn, Vladislav Shurigin, engaged in investigative journalism in the theft of army structures, implies that is not a case of 3, but a framework of a 10-billion when it does not exclude that will get rid of Serdyukov.
"The scale of theft, which, when Serdyukov appeared in the Ministry of Defense, started throwing a shadow not only on Serdyukov personally, and for the whole team, to which he belongs. Apparently, though the decision to get rid of the person, the more so that it is obvious has shown that they are unable to achieve results, "- concludes military analyst, referring to the failure of military reform.
Previously, the last chief of the press service of the Defense Ministry, military columnist of "Komsomolskaya Pravda" Victor Baranez also linked business around "Oboronservis" with a probable resignation Serdyukov. "Just fill out this" boil ", and at the moment the RF IC decided it cut up," — he said.