For something to get rid of dependence on oil and to find other sources of energy, serves a number of countries, but there's no real candidates "black gold" the world's population did not. Certainly, such a day in the history of our civilization at some point, we wish we like it or do not want to, come, but as long as the object of global oil trade, remains unrivaled.
With all this the main question is how to use hydrocarbon provide the growing energy needs of the world. This question in the near future once again began to grow into a bit daunting, because "thanks" to Western pressure or force open the intervention of a number of states required to review the situation with the supply of oil over the limit. Namely, if to foreign intervention in the area of Libya, in the camp every day performed about 1.6 million barrels of crude oil per day, after the NATO operation, this figure dropped significantly. Situation Iran also does not add optimism about the current system nefteraspredeleniya. Euro Union sanctions to be introduced this summer, focused on a complete rejection of the EU purchases of Iranian oil. As we recall, Iran decided not to wait for the moment of the coming of the active phase of the European sanctions, and by the end of February, promises to close the valve, letting go of the "black gold" in Europe. The possibility of an active phase of the NATO operation (or Israeli forces) against Iran too early to write off. Because the application of Tehran's ability to overlap the Strait of Hormuz, through which is transported by tankers to 18 million barrels of oil a day, can not be empty words.
All this leads to the fact that prices oil surely grow. So since the advent of 2012, oil prices rose by about 10%. There is a whole group of economic professionals who sees this not a good trend. In their opinion, the price of "black gold" for 2012 will grow rapidly. With all of this rise can be called artificial. There are no prerequisites impartial reduction of oil production, except for political controversy, no.
But at the same time, there is another world. It consists in the fact that oil prices will not rise as sharply as it might seem at first year. Such increase should the brakes by the summer. His position proponents temporary growth attributed to the fact that even if Iran will block oil flows hundred percent (which is about 2.6 million barrels per day), Then this loss will be someone to fill. First is the question of Saudi Arabia, which is quite easy to reactivate your spare well. In fact, about the same and they say in the Riyadh. Big bet in the case of "problems with the Iranian oil" is on Iraq. For the near future there been established fairly active oil production, which, as they say in the local energy agency, has eclipsed level recorded under Saddam Hussein. In Iraq, expect that by the end of this year, exports of crude oil will rise to 2.6 million barrels per day (today's level of exports from Iran).
But we must not forget that Iraq and Saudi Arabia belong to the countries of the Persian Gulf, the output from which is going to cut off Iran in case of war the West. It turns out a very controversial situation: Like, Riyadh and Baghdad guarantee its major customers a measured oil production, but supplies may appear severe difficulties. The truth in such a situation it depends not far from Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and even from Iran, and what kind of a definitive position on the matter will take the United States and NATO. With all due deference to the military might of Iran is to recognize that in an open confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz at the same Ahmadinejad virtually no chance. But then the whole thing may be in the fact that the West will be obliged, as they say, learning situation, before the venture on a strike if the strike him (West) in general need. "The study of the situation" completely burning due to the fact that almost of days between the vice-premier Rogozin and the Iranian ambassador in Moscow, there was a meeting. At the meeting, a discussion of the likely resumption of military cooperation between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Russia. This meeting was a different signal to the West as it is difficult to call. Because if the military rage against Tehran would be shown, this is as true for another adventure with unpredictable ending is hard to call.
In such a situation the light of the victorious war, the West can not be expected, because Iran may already recently receive Russian weapons capable of messed things up NATO's blitzkrieg.
By the way, do not forget the fact that the transfer of Iranian deposits under the control of the West is unacceptable not only for Iran and Russia, but also for China, which Now get up to 20% of Iranian exports. You can imagine for yourself how to dispose of Iranian oil will start running in the direction of the Middle Kingdom, the "winners". After all, China is now the whole of the Western world is a major contender in the global market. So resist the temptation to reduce the flow of raw materials to his side, in the case of "another victory of democracy" for the West will be very hard.
There are other models, according to which, the Persian Gulf has long outlived its usefulness as measured supplier of oil to the world market. In this regard, we need to find other methods to please the needs of the "black gold". According to the views of the supporters of this kind of idea, these methods have long been found. Even says that rather vsepolnotsenno involved in the process of oil to the United States or, for example, Brazil, as directed by the whole "shortage" will be easily neutralized. But the current 0.5 million barrels a day from Brazilians — this is a real drop of oil to the bed of the river, which can dry up at any moment. Only in 2020 the Brazilian government promises that the export of raw materials will rise to 1.6 million barrels a day. Well, earlier still need to live …
In addition, the Americans, of course, getting on the latest election bait Emperor Obama, I am confident that under force them to raise their prey to the same 2020 to 6.7 million barrels per day. This, by the way, the level of 1994. But for this it is necessary to seriously invest again. Do they have enough resources in the U.S. due to the recent crisis in waves, throw a huge amount of oil on the implementation of the project? Certainly, Washington's even easier to find for themselves the oil salt away somewhere in the East, even for this, and will again "a little" to war …
Based on the above spoken, you can come to the conclusion that now is for Europe and the United States no nominee is not even oil in general, and specifically oil from the Persian Gulf. Because all the words of the West that this loss can simply fill — there are less than self-hypnosis.