Oil is cheaper, capital flows away from Russia

Oil is cheaper, capital flows away from RussiaRussian money the market continues to exist in cramped depending on the price of "black gold." After last week's failed oil quotes below the psychological mark of $ 100 in our country, the number of optimists talking about successfully overcome the decline sharply diminished. It would seem, to the ups and downs of oil in Russia has long been to philosophically, but throwing it in the hot and cold alternating with undisguised euphoria and strewing ashes on their heads continue to occur in the vast Russian expanse.

And what we have to expect if almost half of Russian economy — is raw material component, depending on the world situation. When all the main levers of monetary structure of the Russian Federation are in the field of hydrocarbons, there is no need to wonder sudden changes in mood, even among analysts and professionals. If look at what is happening in our economy right now, it's more like the way a person sits in a slot machine and waits only win. When the machine "eats" bill, and does not win, one begins to read, it's time to tie this gambling and find work for yourself. But here's the "one-armed bandit" provides little benefit, and the person forgets about finding regular work again. Specifically, this man, and gamers like Russian economy in recent years. We constantly look forward to the fact that oil prices will be such that work and, in fact, not necessary. Allegedly, the West is still all buy, and where he has to go. But this is not entirely true.

The recent economic crisis has shown the world that the West, like all other countries, can significantly reduce the introduction of oil and gas due to the sudden collapse of the money. The dependence of the ordinary: lowering the real income of people leads to lower production volumes and lower production volumes, in turn, leads to a decrease in the use of raw materials. As a consequence, cost Oil drops.
Our budget laid out in such a makarom that all its points are made by the Government under the prices of oil at a level not less than $ 98 per barrel. While the price of "black gold" held a bit higher than this limit. But at the moment they are almost on the strip section: just below — and the financial abyss with all the attendant. Personal business and foreign investors fished a clear trend of the monetary system of the country depends on oil prices. After the MICEX and RTS inevitably came down, and the increased outflow of capital from the country. Analysts' forecasts about the final limit on the outflow previously accounted for about $ 36 billion, and took over the limit due to the instability of the oil market and other factors only in the past 9 months of the year around $ 50 billion prospect of not funny.

Do not cheer lead and out of China. According to the statistical services of the strong growth of the Chinese economy goes down. This is another "bell", saying that the recent oil price is unlikely to grow, because China is in need of hydrocarbons in the smallest scale than even a couple of months back.

Segodnyaschy situation in global markets is more like a swing that with each successive swing excludes all closer to the ground. One never knows, and this money will start to swing on "strike sharply" on the ground level of growth, and then dig into the ground and negative evidence. If it is not stagnant, then what?

According to predictions, the cost of oil by the end of the year will "float" around the $ 100 bucks, which will not lead to a noticeable dilemmas in the Russian financial sector. But here's the beginning of 2012 does not bode quite good, which could affect the growth of the global production. Even the head of the U.S. Fed's Bernanke sovereign states that he sees no way of solving the problem of unemployment. This means that the companies of the United States are the least in need of manpower, and this situation leads to the upcoming recession. In the end, oil prices in March and April 2012 may sag even lower than 85 bucks, which does not at hand Russian authorities. And this cost — is a direct path to the crisis of 2008.

Of course, do not forget that the public debt of the Russian Federation as of today is still less than in the ill-fated year 2008. Well, she's financial system more stable. At least, so say the representatives of the Russian government and the banking sector. But if the outflow of capital from the refusal of Russian assets will continue at the same level as it is at the moment, then no resistance will not help our economy. This is the real state of things

On the week, Vladimir Putin said that any risks to doing business in Russia is not, and the outflow of capital fueled only imaginary premises. But we are assured that all is not too far away, because zabugornye, as it is read, Partners are not used to trust him, and the real figures. A number stubbornly they say about Russian money impermanence of land. Of course! The soil is something our Russian oil soaked …
The likely decline in oil prices may lead to a depreciation of the ruble, but it is not the government will do its social obligations at the same level.

But we expect that our governing bodies will not quite caught up in the race (if this kind of race in our time, we can talk), and will find solutions and economic problems as well.

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