Forecasters earlier PROMISED Russia two babih summer, assured that after the warm September will be as comfortable in October, but the November thaw will bring the European territory of Russia freezing rain.
"We will go into the winter gently with thaws," — told reporters the head of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) Alexander Frolov. In October, the weather in the Eastern European and Russian territories is warm enough, a little lower than normal temperatures can sink to the Urals and Western Siberia. In November, temperatures close to normal or even higher are predicted in the southeastern part of European Russia and the Urals, and below — in Chukotka and Siberia.
In November the weather conditions will be close to normal, but at the expense of periodic thaw possible precipitation in the form of freezing rain, as happened in some areas of central Russia in the past year. Recall that such abnormal for our country weather phenomenon led to serious consequences. Freezing rain which has fallen in the last week of December 2010, the Capital Region has led to continuity of power lines. About 400 thousand people were left without electricity, and the damage of Power of weather anomalies was 1.1 billion rubles.
In much of European Russia thaw not expected until November, but in December, and in March of next year, the head meteorologist. A warm autumn change of stability cold. "It will be quite harsh, cold winter," — said Alexander Frolov. He added that in most of the Russian winter will be snowy, but the level of precipitation is difficult to predict.
In December 2011, the temperature in most of the regions will be close to normal, RBC reports. After the new year freeze will come to the European part of Russia, and late in the metropolitan area. According to weather forecasts, in January next year in the Moscow region is expected 12-14 frost days, when the temperature will fluctuate around a mark of -20 ° C, and within a day or two can not be ruled briefly lowering the temperature to below -30 ° C.
February Russians remember a large spread of temperature anomalies. The last month of the winter will be cold enough in the north-west of the country, and here in the Urals temperature will be above normal. Residents of the north-western region of Russia severe frosts this winter will not get any in January and February is expected seven or eight days with temperatures below -15 ° C, and for one or two days a short term drop in temperature to below -25 ° C.
Severe frosts are expected this winter in Novosibirsk and Yakutsk. The air temperature in Novosibirsk most of the winter, according to Frolov, will be held at around -15 ° C. Below -25 ° C and the air temperature will go down to 12-13 days, and below -30 ° C — about 15-16 days. In Yakutsk, the coldest period is expected in January 2012. About 14 days the temperature in the region will range at -45 ° C … -60 ° C. About 5 days, the same weather holds in Yakutia in December and February.
According to the head of Roshydromet winter cold will go directly to the end of the calendar season. According to preliminary estimates, in 2012, Russians is prompt and warm spring.
The analysis of climate data enables the probability 68% -70% to the conclusion that for the 6 months of the cold half of the year in most parts of Russia are expected temperature background about averages, according to the website of the Federal Service for gidrometeologii and environmental monitoring. The average temperature during the heating period 2011 — 2012 years. across Russia will be close to the average temperature of the previous heating season.
Probabilistic forecasts of the temperature regime in RUSSIA for the heating period 2011/2012 years.
Probabilistic forecasts of temperature regime
RUSSIA in the heating period 2011/2012 years.
Based on climate information for the 112-year period in the whole territory of Russia was noted 11 winters, when the temperature deviation from the norm across the country exceeded two0, and one winter (1968-69.), when the temperature deviation from the norm was less than -20.
Winter 2010-11 yy Russia's average temperature was close to normal, with significant negative anomalies were observed in much of European and Siberian positive anomalies — in the Far East. For the last three decades is 9 warm winters (1982-83, 1988-89, 1992-93, 1994-95, 2001-2002, 2003-2004, 2006-2007, 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 g.g).
It should be noted that the warmest years in the northern hemisphere average temperatures occur in 1998, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 GG
The analysis of climate data and forecasting developments NIU ROSHYDROMET made in the weather in Russia, makes 68-70% probability to conclude that, in general 6 months cold season in most parts of Russia are expected temperature background about averages. In the southern half of the Volga, Urals and the southwest of Siberian Federal Districts period average temperature is expected to be above the norm, but in January in these regions are predicted negative thermal anomalies. The average temperature during the heating period 2011-2012 gg in Russia will be close to the average temperature of the previous heating season.
It should be noted that the accuracy of weather temperature for the heating period, issued hydrometeorological center of Russia in the last 15 years ranged between 58 — 81%.
The information provided is focused on its use of the federal bodies of executive power, particularly for the fuel and energy complex.
Participated in preparing the Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, MGO them. A.I.Voeykova, AARI. It should be noted that during the cold period 2011-2012 gg probabilistic forecasts will be adjusted monthly, decade and short-term weather forecasts.
Here are maps of weather deviations of the average monthly air temperature from the norm for each month of the heating season. The text description of the temperature regime in brackets likelihood of the forecast. The tables show the normal (average long-term value) temperature per month for administrative centers of the Russian Federation.
Above-normal temperatures are expected in the east of the North-West and Volga federal districts (65-68%), as well as in the Urals and in the western and central regions of the Siberian Federal District (73-77%). The rest of Russia temperature background is assumed close to normal.
Most parts of the country the temperature will be close to historical averages. Above the normal average monthly temperatures are expected in the south of the Volga and Ural Federal District and in the southwest of the Siberian Federal District (70-75%).
Temperature conditions in most parts of Russia, except for the North-West Federal District, is expected to lower than in November last year.
Above-normal temperatures are expected in the north of the Ural and Siberian federal districts in the west of Yakutia (72-77%). The rest of Russia temperature background is assumed close to normal.
Most parts of the Russian temperature is expected higher than in December last year (70-75%). Colder than last year, is expected in the South and the North Caucasus Federal District, Chukotka and Kamchatka (65-70%).
Below normal temperatures are expected in the southern half of the Ural Federal District and in the southwest of the Siberian Federal District (68-72%). The rest of Russia temperature background will be close to the average long-term.
January colder than expected last year in most of Russia, in the south Urals and Siberian federal districts — close to January 2011 (70-75%).
Below normal average monthly temperature is expected in the northern areas of the North-West Federal District (65-70%). Above historical averages temperatures expected in the southern half of the Urals and in south-western regions of the Siberian Federal Districts (71-75%) and Chukotka. The rest of Russia assumed temperature close to historical averages.
February is expected warmer than in 2011 in most parts of European Russia, Yakutia and Magadan region, colder last year in the southeast of the Siberian and Far Eastern federal districts south (70-75%).
Above historical averages temperatures expected in the east of the South and the North Caucasus Federal District, in most of the Volga, Southern Urals, in the northern part of the Far Eastern Federal Districts (70-75%). In the rest of the country the temperature will be close to historical averages.
In the north of the Ural and Siberian Federal Districts average temperature is expected to lower (70-75%) than in March 2011.