Russian scientists are warning of the possibility of a tsunami on Lake Baikal

March 7. Many people used to think that there are only a tsunami in the ocean. Indeed, about 80 percent of the tsunami is born on the Pacific coast, where frequent catastrophic earthquake. But in fact, the tsunami can occur in any sufficiently large body of water, located in a seismic area. According to employees of the Institute of Earth's Crust and the Scientific Research Institute of Biology, Irkutsk State University, destructive waves can be expected in the lake.

Tsunami, the waves very long, result of long sections of the shift up or down with strong underwater and coastal earthquakes. A Baikal rift that formed deep basin of Lake Baikal, a seismically active area. The lake is quite large: its length is about 636 km, width — from 25 to 80 km with an average width of 48 km. Depth in the southern reaches of Lake Baikal basin 1423 m in the central — 1637 m in the north basin — 890 m at an average depth of about 730 m

Taking advantage of the "Catalogue of earthquakes Baikal", scientists mapped the epicenters of crustal earthquakes with M? 5, occurred under the lake and around the period from 1724 to 2011. This is the minimum magnitude, which can occur when a tsunami wave. True, their height will be small — about 0.04 pm

Irkutsk scientists found that under the Baikal, especially along the eastern shore of the lake, it often takes strong aftershocks, which resulted in extensive areas of the bottom move up and down and there are not high tsunami waves. But as the observations of the tsunami on Lake Baikal and were not correlated with the occurrence of earthquake waves, they were accepted for ordinary wind waves. The height of the tsunami waves on the lake over 1 meter, should be a strong earthquake, with a magnitude of more than seven.

In historical time the tsunami on Baikal documented only once, in 1861, during Tsaganskogo earthquake with a magnitude of 7.5. His description made a qualified mining engineer N. Lopatin, who had been in the epicenter of the earthquake in January 1862 and published in early February 1862 to obtain information in Irkutsk newspaper "Cupid." The earthquake was so strong that in the Selenga River delta formed failure vast bay area over 200 km ². The lack of strong damage and few casualties (3 people and several thousand head of cattle) in Tsaganskom earthquake and tsunami can only be explained by the fact that this area was at the time poorly populated.

If an earthquake of such intensity will now, for example in the area of Baikalsk or other large settlement on the lake, it will cause numerous casualties and the destruction of buildings, including the Baikal pulp and paper mill, and then the unique ecosystem of the lake will be destroyed.

Strong earthquake with a magnitude of up to eight place under the Baikal basin often enough, and dive under the water of the land on the coast may lake. However, seismologists do not consider this fact in their documents, do not consider it and rescue MOE. According to researchers, the Baikal is necessary to create an appropriate system of tide gauge observations and monitor tsunami. Monitoring should be carried out in the standby mode, switching the mode of registration, seismographs will record under the Baikal basin earthquake with a magnitude of more than five. Such monitoring would establish basic statistical patterns and relationships "the earthquake-tsunami" and reveal the spatial-temporal features of the formation and propagation of the tsunami waves on the shores of Lake Baikal.

This work was supported by RFBR and scientific-educational center "Baikal".

Source of information: AV Klyuchevsky VM Dem'yanovich, AA Klyuchevskaya "On the possibility of a tsunami on the lake." Reports of the Academy of Sciences, 2012, Volume 442, № 2.

Source: Science and Technology of Russia

Tsunami unlikely Baikal

March 16, 2011. So says Alexander Klochkov, Deputy Chief of the Sakhalin Tsunami Department for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring

— Waves of a tsunami on Lake Baikal — an unlikely event, and so what happened in Japan, Buryatia impossible. Of course, on the Baikal can be some local events, but a much smaller scale, and it is impossible to predict them in advance, — said Alexander Klochkov.

On Lake Baikal is much more terrible earthquake

This was "Inform Policy" Arnold told Tulokhonov, Director of the Baikal Institute of Nature Management, Doctor of Geographical Sciences, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

— The emergence of a tsunami on Lake Baikal is not possible because of the formation of such waves to many conditions: flat bottom, long distance, and more. Tsunamis are formed over several thousand kilometers, a big wave comes from afar on flat beach — said Arnold Tulokhonov.

Therefore, the more pressing problem Baikal earthquakes.

Scientists predict future earthquakes

In the 2011-2018 years. — The western part of the border between the U.S. and Canada, the expected strength — 9-9,3 points

In the 2011-2038 years. — Los Angeles and San Francisco in California, the expected strength — 6.7 points, the number of possible victims — 5-40 thousand

In the 2011-2050 years. — Sakhalin, the expected strength — 8-9, the number of possible victims — several thousand people

In 2011-2015. — Baikal-Mongolia region (Irkutsk and Chita regions, the Republic of Buryatia, the adjacent part of Mongolia)

In 2011 — the northern Tien Shan, in the Kyrgyz ridge to the south-east of Bishkek, the expected strength — 6 points

In the 2011-2050 years. — Tehran, the expected strength — 6-7.5 points, the number of possible victims — several million people

In the 2011-2018 years. — Kashmir, the expected strength — 9-9,3 points

Source: Weekly "Inform Policy"


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