October 17, 2012 8:15
Engineer from St. Petersburg "sees" catastrophe before anyone else.
October 13 — International Day for Disaster Reduction. But how exactly does this do? The big question! There is a man who says he knows the answer.
From St. Petersburg Alexander Zakharov — engineer who calls himself the crisis analyst, more than twenty years of experience in forecasting emergencies.
Natural and man-made disasters have become regular. Rescue operations require more than a billion dollars a year. Now, if it were possible to foresee disaster — no matter how many lives saved, how much money have saved!
Alexander Zakharov, evaluates the success of its activities from 95 to 98% accurate hits. Given the fact that it is much less difficult task weather has credibility, not to exceed 65%, self-esteem of the Prophet should be recognized incredibly high. However, the big test results and if his predictions did, it was only sporadically and several departments. So what are the objective facts?
In late June, Zakharov posted online warning: from 4 to 12 July will be severe flooding in the North Caucasus and in the Krasnodar region, Yakutia, the Altai. July 3 at St. Petersburg TV channel 100, he confirmed the prognosis.
4 July in the Krasnodar region began heavy rains in the next few days, had the three-five-month rainfall, flood in the Crimean region affected 24,000 people in Gelendzhik — 7000, the total number of victims — 172.
July 10 in the TV show "X-version. Other news "on the national channel TV-3, he said (and repeated on July 13) on the new flood zone from 15 to 25 August in the same areas of the Krasnodar region, which suffered in July. 22 of the flooded village Novomikhailovskoye.
In June, the crisis has sent the head analyst at the Federal Air Transport Agency Alexander Neradko in response to his request forecasts of air crashes in the second half of the year. September 12 was listed as one of the most dangerous days. That same day, in the north of Kamchatka crashed AN-28.
How can respond to these predictions stakeholders?
Usually — no way. March 10, 2011, three days before the nuclear disaster in Fukushima, Zakharov brought their schedules to the office of the regional offices of MES and the duty paid on receipt. On the eve of the Polish plane crash near Smolensk, he came to the Consulate General of Poland and gave their inputs, convincing: it is necessary, they say, to do something …
Become famous — come
Its know-how research does not open. The essence of his explanation is that every disaster is accompanied by the release of enormous energy that builds up, and there are indications of its concentration. As fever indicates hidden from the eyes of inflammation in the body, and the mass death of birds, floating dead fish, the disappearance of bees, the release of whale strandings and other ecological trouble gives forecaster disasters material for system analysis. At total interconnectedness of all phenomena in nature there is nothing casual even aircraft tail number and the name of the ship used to Zakharova input for the forecast.
Understanding how to make predictions Zakharova, no, not just me.
One day we visited with him the General Administration of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense in St. Petersburg. We were received by deputy Vladimir Tyra.
— We need not forecast dangerous days at all — he said to my companion — and specifically where, when and what will happen.
— But this requires teamwork — retorted Forecaster — your statistics, raw data on interesting objects.
— We — not-for-profit organization, we have a resource for this work is not provided. You already tested in fire and emergency management institute of the Government of St. Petersburg. But somewhere changed people work somewhere stalled. Therefore, there are no results.
Saying goodbye, Vladimir Zakharov, Tyra wanted the recognition and expressed hope for new meetings. Like, the guy to succeed, but when you recognize, come, maybe we will use yours achievements.
But … do not even have to be a forecaster to accurately say, such an approach will not be better.
I was required to personally test the ability Zakharov. September 26, he wrote me a forecast for the first week of October. Briefly, they are: from 1 to 8 October will be a collapse of man-made disasters, including a number of the planes. All week I've been tracking the news. Outcome: 1st plane crashed near Anapa and in Switzerland, 6th — in Sudan. In the same week, there were floods in Spain, stloknulis ships in Hong Kong, people were poisoned in Irkutsk and in Germany, burned in Saratov Refinery and food factory in the Novgorod region in China landslide destroyed a school in California facing 47 cars.
In fairness to make a reservation, doubt in the high forecast accuracy Zakharova, I still remain:
a) He said 1, 4 and 8 October as the most catastrophic days. In reality, this was the only day of October 1, the others — the usual for this week;
b) Scope of these events still different: if we ignore the fires, which have suffered relatively few, the picture Averaging;
c) What is the general, "average" background disasters — maybe before and after the selected week happens about the same (for example, Sept. 29. in Ugra burned plant, the fire, according to reports, is stronger than all of October), what is the general criterion differences disasters to accidents? If you enter it, you may find that in early October, there were no accidents;
g) Zakharov assured that after a tragic week, from October 9 to the end of the month resonant incident is no more. However, in the following days artillery shells exploded in Orenburg, downpours killed residents of Derbent …
With all these reservations, the October forecast reliability can not achieve the stated value of 95%.
These my questions Maratovich Alexander replied detailing scale incident — a single big question that we simply do not have the opportunity to discuss the relatively small space of a newspaper, all of October is generally more full of incidents than the previous month, because, they say, unpleasant events continue to occur.
Further clarification of the situation in October, according to Zakharov, is: local disasters days on October 15 and will be five days from 18 to 22 October — could be earthquakes, landslides, storm flows, fires, explosions, accidents in transport.
By Savely Kashnitsky