Above — the schedule of the flare activity of the Sun according to the satellite GOES; below — the image of the sun with a telescope at the Observatory SDO AIA
The most powerful in the past 12 months, there was a flash in the sun on Sunday night, Moscow time, in connection with which the world on Wednesday are expected to geomagnetic disturbances, according to a statement on the website of the Sun Labs X-ray astronomy of the Physical Sciences of the Lebedev Institute (LPI).
Solar flare level M6, 6 belongs to the fourth class flare activity on a scale. The last outbreak of the fifth class of X was recorded December 14, 2006. In the class M Sunday event — the third power in the last four years and the second in the new, 24th cycle, is developing on the Sun.
"The area in which there was an outbreak at the time of the event was near the central solar longitude, that is right in front of the Earth. This situation, where the impact of solar events on the Earth is the maximum. Thus, observations can very likely forecast for February 16, geomagnetic disturbances but is not yet completely clear what force "- the report says.
However, as they note, despite the strength of the flash and its very high geoeffectiveness — "focus" on the ground "as long as the observations can not predict the strong perturbations, and suggest rather the opposite." Flare region, formed just three days ago, do not have time to accumulate a large amount of dense plasma that could be thrown by explosion. In addition, the pulsed nature of the event with a very rapid growth phase, which lasted only 10 minutes, is not specific to the event, accompanied by strong magnetic storms.
"Finally, the power of prediction of geomagnetic disturbances may be adjusted in the course of these days. While we can only say with certainty that whatever the amount of plasma may be thrown to the side of the Earth, to reach our planet it should in the first half of the day February 16, 2011" — is in the message.