Almost half a century ago reversed the Caribbean crisis has put the world on the brink of nuclear catastrophe. The first time the world has become a fait accompli ability of global nuclear war and complete destruction of human civilization. Two superpowers, the United States and the Russian Alliance, have gained peak phase «cool war» tightly and come to the line, which could not cross.
From the height of this a day or you can say with certainty that the world’s population own escaped death only by intelligent action Governing the U.S. and the USSR, which belatedly came to a particular conclusion that the right conditions, and not to go ahead because it can lead to unpredictable consequences.
During that confrontation, U.S. President John Kennedy (John Kennedy) estimated that a similar conflict could lead to the death of 100 million Yankees and above 100 million Russian people. Approximately the same view was held by Nikita Khrushchev, Soviet control. Specifically, this was the basis for a compromise and led to the peaceful resolution of conflict appeared.
Peaceful resolution of the Cuban missile crisis has necessitated his thinking and encourage the parties to take active measures to prevent the ability of future such situations. USSR brought from Cuba nuclear weapons and their means of delivery, giving the assurance that they will no longer have it. Immediately after the crisis, the United States turned to NATO with the question of exporting missiles from Italy and Turkey, and April 15, 1963, in other words less than 6 months, they were removed. During the year the contract was signed for a limited denial of nuclear weapons tests in 3 environments: the atmosphere, underwater and in space. Between Washington and Moscow was laid «searing line» direct communication. Between the U.S. and the USSR reached an agreement aimed at supporting UN General Assembly resolution on the Prohibition of the deployment of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction in space of cosmic, which was later enshrined in the Outer Space Treaty 1967
It was, figuratively speaking, the first lessons of the Cuban missile crisis, but arguing about the lessons of the said crisis in general, it should be noted that they then have a tremendous impact on the decision-making process in foreign policy superpowers. We note in this regard that specifically thanks to the lessons during the Cuban missile crisis the following conflict situations (US-Vietnam War 1964-1973., The Arab-Israeli conflict in 1967 and 1973. Czechoslovak actions in 1968, the Soviet-Afghan war in 1979 -1989 years. etc.) USSR and the USA, supporting one or the other side of the conflict, though, did not go all-in against each other, but have found a workaround, enter into negotiations in order to avoid probable global apocalypse. This means, in our view, that were seriously analyzed the likely consequences of the Cuban missile crisis and the two sides began to consider his future lessons.
Now lessons Caribbean conflict can assist policy makers to realize what to do and what not to the solution of many foreign policy objectives. This applies to the problems of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, and problems «missile umbrella» and problems of «color revolutions.» Because the value of the Cuban missile crisis, for historical and political science, and the global experience — enormously.
Coupled with the still important question of how the principles and decision-making in foreign policy, especially when it comes to strategic decisions.
There is no doubt that if John Kennedy knew that Cuba has imported nuclear ammunition, and that the R-12 missile alerted, his behavior would be totally different. In this regard, discussions about Tipo «full knowledge» Yankees about what happened in Cuba, thanks Penkovsky disk imaging does not hold water.
Pretty recalled that U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara vyznat that Cuba were all also brought 164 nuclear warheads, only in 1989, during an international conference dedicated to the Caribbean crisis. Then he vyznat and the number of Russian troops in Cuba — 42 thousand soldiers, although the CIA informed the whitewashed house on 7-8 thousand Russian soldiers.
In was not the best condition and Russian side regarding awareness because Penkovsky was arrested in October 1962, in other words just in times of crisis, and it was not clear what information he gave the Yankees. Obviously, this could not influence the behavior of Khrushchev, who had previously threatened that in the USSR «rockets do like sausages,» and «it before they could spank us as malehankih boy — and now we are able to give them to fifth point «, but the analysis of the situation was obliged to make concessions.
Obviously, the mentality of the Yankees (the Monroe Doctrine), and of the impunity of their own behavior, and did not spare even the idea that someone can do the same as they are: locate missile bases near the borders, «the head of the enemy.» But it happened, and the consequences could be tragic not stop fit Followers 2-superpowers.
This, unfortunately, can be traced, and now, almost all due to impunity behavior majestic powers, almost all due to lack of information, almost all due to the inability to consider the likely response actions or hypothetically possible enemies. And it can lead to the same situations, the same Caribbean crisis. And, taking into account the level of development of military and information technology — dangers are growing exponentially.
An example is the U.S. intention to locate in Europe elements of a global missile defense system, or «anti-missile umbrella» as it became known example program. Basically, the idea is not new, although at this stage and has another motivation. In the early 80-ies of the last century the United States intending to stay in space missile defense in order to protect his country from missile attack from «cerebral enemy.» Without jeopardizing the right of every country swing to defend its independence and its sovereignty, though, this idea did not have success, because it was at odds with both the established military-strategic parity between the USSR and the USA, and then with the provisions of existing international law prohibiting placement of cosmic space in weapons of mass destruction and means of defense. As a result of negotiations the parties have come to the same interpretation of the provisions of the Contract on the Limitation of Anti-May 26, 1972 and refused as from the placement of missile parts in space and on the «asymmetric response» that, of course, helped out the world from the apocalypse probable.
Coupled with the fact that in 2002 the U.S. withdrew from the Contract on limiting missile defense systems on May 26, 1972 and consider themselves free from all duties and restrictions on missile defense systems.
According to Washington’s plans, European missile defense system to be built in four steps and start working in 2020. She Tipo directed against Iran and North Korea, although these countries do not yet have in their arsenal of combat missiles capable to achieve the United States. Our homeland is considering this system as «anti-Russian» and wants to respond «asymmetrically» the perceived danger.
The epic of missile defense systems in Eastern Europe began in February 2007, when the Czech Republic and Poland have announced that their country may seem elements of the U.S. missile defense system of the State. It was about the deployment of so-called «third position area» include radar (in Poland) and 10 missiles (in Czech) — these systems are designed to protect Europe from Iranian ballistic missiles. First two positional area have already been deployed in the United States — in Alaska and California — and should cover the area of the United States of North Korean ballistic missiles. Initially, these plans caused rejection of.
In September 2009, President Barack Obama decided to reconfigure the system defenses. The new approach was justified by the emergence of several new reasons. In 1-x, Iran has succeeded in the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles distant acts, but far advanced in the development of medium-range missiles act. In-2 showed its highest efficiency South American sea-based missile defense system. Ultimately, the United States began the process of creating the latest missile defense architecture with meaningful support to the Navy. The plan provides for the development of four steps — every couple of years will be set more effective defense system that will meet the expected progress in Iran’s missile sphere. Reporting on the latest development strategy decision ABM Barack Obama stressed that the refusal to deploy missile defenses in Poland and the Czech Republic partly justified by the opposition of Russia: «We take into account the interests of the Russian Federation, who believed that our previous missile programm fully corresponds to Russian interests.»
Currently, the United States remained the only option organize global missile parts (radars and missiles) in Romania, which has given consent to do so by signing in 2011 «missile contract» with the United States. Last negotiations with Poland and the Czech Republic concerning the potential placement on the territory of these states parts U.S. global missile defense, but notable for the fact that Germany was not ecstatic about the idea of European missile defense, although it is understood that the command post of the system being NATO missile defense in Europe will be in Germany, a military base on the ground «Ramstein».
Together with those specialists from different countries, including the United States, pose a swing necessity and effectiveness «missile umbrella.» In 1-x, the choice of uncertain where you plan to place the radars and missiles, if in fact deals with the elimination of threats from Iran and North Korea. It seems that neither tried to «specialists» explain to us the probable line of motion of missiles from the territory of these states, it all looks unconvincing. Moreover, it is impossible not to agree with the arguments of the Russian side that the radars and missiles stationed in Romania, Czech Republic and Poland, will focus, first, against Russia.
In-2-x, the number of missiles, which will be located in Europe (20-40 units) is clearly insufficient to protect not only the euro continent, but even those states where they are located. This, in principle, opens the main project plan, which is aimed at a global missile defense area the U.S., not Europe, and the essence of «evrozontika» is only to detect in advance the probable launch of ballistic missiles, whether Iranian, North Korean, Pakistani, Indian, Chinese, but first — Russian, calculate their probable line of motion and probable point of aim, and to transfer this data over the ocean, where they will be able to used for effective and timely protection of the U.S. countryside. A missile placed around the radar in Romania, Czech Republic, Poland, provided only to protect themselves and these radars could fail to perform other tasks.
B-3, regardless of the fact that the United States can assess the real threat and possible tragic consequences of the hypothetical nature of the conflict with Russia, still have illusions about the fact that the criteria for systemic crisis that has lasted in over 20 years, Our homeland fails qualitatively and in time to update its own nuclear potential, ruining the ability to retaliate nuclear missile strike. In conjunction with the U.S. intention to deploy the European component of the global missile defense system that could give certain advantages in the case of an alleged conflict with Russia in the division of spheres of impact in today’s multipolar world.
The present situation in almost all resembles the one that exists in the world in the late 50’s — early 60-ies of the last century, when the United States, seeking to secure for themselves a strategic advantage, in Italy and Turkey ballistic missile medium-range actions. In response, the Soviet Union placed the same missiles in Cuba, which led to the Cuban missile crisis, which has put the world on the brink of nuclear war.
Current actions inexorably evolving towards a possible open conflict between the U.S. and Russia, because their unwillingness to give legal guarantees on the direction and goals «missile umbrella» causes a very painful reaction from Moscow, which believes that the U.S. unfairly trying to break the existing parity in the field of nuclear-missile weapons. Moreover, from the Russian control sounded completely certain warning about the likely response steps, including «asymmetric».
Refers to the probability of locating tactical missiles «Iskander» on the terrain of the Kaliningrad region, also in Transnistria. And if in the first case refers to the Russian countryside, in the case of Transnistria — refers to the area of the Black Sea countries — the Republic of Moldova and the Transnistrian conflict protracted.
In this context, it seems very problematic peace process to resolve this conflict, and Moldova can only regret that the majestic powers in their own quest to overtake each other, are not registered with neuvvyazkami and needs of small states.
More ambiguous role of Romania in this situation, because it is at this stage plays a role of Cuba since «Caribbean crisis» by agreeing to place on their own terrain pieces U.S. global missile defense against Russia.
Piquancy analogy exacerbated by the fact that in our case, as in the far October 1962 has its own «base Guantanamo» — Transnistria, giving parties illusive notions of Tipo existing ability to overtake each other in the strategy or strategies.
But this, as during the «Cuban Missile Crisis», is unlikely to serve as a reasonable argument when trying to resolve the conflict has occurred. Especially since Basescu their calls and assurances that Romania, the Tipo provide for themselves, «… the most highest level of security in the country’s history,» is very similar to Fidel Castro, who called at the time the use of nuclear weapons for the safety of Cuba.
Despite these appeals and assurances, Romania is likely to be reincarnated as a target to be destroyed first in the event of a global conflict, because it is clear that first destroyed radars and means of reporting the launch of missiles. It is dangerous not only for Romania, and also for its neighbors — Moldova, Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, Ukraine, because areas of these states may also be hurt in case of defeat naming radar installations and other components of the U.S. global missile defense.
Not the least danger to the coastal states are probable and «asymmetric» Answers from Moscow that can be targeted not only against the United States, and against those states on whose territories are located elements of a global missile defense system.
It is understood that the first time the term «asymmetric response» Misha Gorbachev been consumed during the debate over SDI. It was not only the methods of direct impact on missile defense, both ground-based and of cosmic, and for more «exotic» capable of inflicting irreparable damage «main enemy» in order to force him to abandon the idea of placing missile parts in space.
So, for example, as a method of asymmetric achieve parity with the alleged enemy harm the variant means landslide tsunami wave height at the shoreline in meters, 10s or hundreds of meters due to the impact of the volcanic eruption or earthquake on the initiation geophysical structure.
In the midst of such — Cumbre Vieja volcano, La Palma Peninsula, Canary Islands (and others). During the last eruption of the volcano in its structure formed two cracks of approximately one kilometer any, and the western part slid down to 4 m. This unbalanced part of the volcano volume of more than 500 km3 and weighing about 0.5 trillion. t may collapse spontaneously or as a result of a petty natural outdoor exposure.
Separated part of the volcano first fall in the plain at the foot of the volcano, and then at a speed of 100-120 m / s will slide into the ocean. 9 hours 50-meter wave destroys town east coast of North America, including New-york, Boston, Miami, military bases and towns located within 20 miles of shoreline. In the lowlands and estuaries — at a greater distance. To Cape Canaveral wave height is halved, the same — on the ground in Canada.
Since the collapse of the volcano and the slide part happens in the western part of the island, the tsunami in the east, south and north-eastern areas will be significantly lower. For a number of Western European wave height will be about 10-12 m
To increase the water level of the Russian Federation is estimated at several cm, taking into account the interaction of waves with the glaciers of Greenland and Iceland, very — some 10 cm-s, which is less wind tides in the bays of the Baltic Sea.
Similar landslides, leading to mega-tsunami up to 500 m at the shoreline with «sweep» west coast of America, not once occurred in Hawaii. Last megatsunami initiated landslide in Hawaii, left 110 thousand years ago. Landslides and progress are now on the slopes of the world’s largest volcano Mauna Loa. The volume of the landslide could reach 5000 km3 or more.
Nonlinearity effects of natural landslide gipertsunami activation, suggests it unmanageable weapon of mass destruction (WMD).
The objections of American professionals that such conduct would be contrary to the provisions of the Convention on the Prohibition of Military or at least some other aggressive use of impact on the environment from May 18, 1977, the Russian side said that the provisions of the Convention may be interpreted broadly, as is done in the case of the U.S. with the Contract on the Limitation of Anti May 26, 1972
Although the white-house calculated that if «symmetric» efforts of the parties to establish a missile defense system in economic terms will inevitably lose Russian Alliance, which has significantly less strong economy, yet in general, the strategy of «asymmetric response» politically worked. South American side did not at that time out of the Contract ABM funding «Strategic Defense Initiative» did not get the scale on which its proponents hoped. During the Bush administration, and later under Bill Clinton, IDF quietly withdrawn from the number of programs of the military department, although many areas of research and development in the field of missile defense in the United States continued to develop.
But under President Bush Jr. thought about the latest SOI again started to gain momentum, which led to the emergence of a global «anti-missile umbrella.» In this regard, began to gain momentum again and the thought of «asymmetric response» which in today’s criteria for placement on the ground parts of Romania global missile defense system, and can be used in the Black Sea region, which can be caused by man-made earthquakes (to example, in Vrancea Mountains, in Romania or in the vicinity of the Romanian nuclear power plant in Cernavoda), tsunamis and mega-tsunami in the waters of the Dark Sea and along the bed of the Danube up, etc., etc.
Another danger for our region, in connection with the placement of parts in Romania U.S. global missile defense is likely reactivation of Russian combat system «Perimeter». Russian system «Perimeter» West first so scared of the 1990s that it dubbed «Dead hand» («Dead Hand»).
The mechanism of operation of the «Perimeter» follow: in peacetime, the main components of the system is in standby mode, monitor the situation and processing incoming data from measuring stations. In case of danger of large-scale attack using nuclear weapons, confirmed by the data systems of early warning of missile attack complex «Perimeter» Automatic Drive embattled and begins to hunt down the operational situation.
If the sensory components of the system with sufficient reliability confirm the fact that a massive nuclear attack, and the system for a certain time loses its connection with the main command nodes RVSN, it initiates a start command several missiles. They are flying over its territory, transmit using installed on board the massive control signal transmitters and launchers codes for all components of the nuclear triad — silo and mobile launchers complexes, nuclear missile submarines and strategic aviation.
Reception apparatus as team Fri RVSN and individual launchers, taking this signal immediately begins the process of ballistic missiles in one hundred percent automatic mode, providing a guaranteed retaliatory strike at the enemy, even in the event of death of all personnel. Data system «Perimeter» maximum classified.
Hardly worth fluctuate that coordinates military bases where there are elements of the U.S. global missile defense system on the territory of Romania, the Czech Republic and Poland will be made in «Perimeter», if it is reactivated in response to the deployment of «missile umbrella» in Europe. And hardly worth fluctuate in that it represents a huge risk not only for Romania and for the whole Black Sea region.
We should not forget about other dangers associated with the occurrence in our region global missile parts — for example, the case of false actuation systems of missile warning, which may use the same machine system «Perimeter» or other components confrontation majestic powers that in turn can lead to consequences for the devilish Black Sea region.
Hitherto no Our homeland nor the U.S. were willing to make concessions, but spring from Russian authorities appeared some hope for solution of the problem, although reports of new circumstances and accompanied by scandal.
In March, Obama and then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev took a momentous conversation «on the margins» held in Seoul Nuclear Security Summit. The conversation was private and not intended for the general public, but its journalists heard because the microphone was not switched off. Obama asked the Russian authorities to reduce the intensity of their own performances on defense before the elections in the United States and said that if he stays in a white house, it will have «more flexibility».
The U.S. presidential election was held, and beat Obama. Will show whether the U.S. is «more flexibility» the question of the «anti-missile umbrella», or we are doomed to become inhabitants of the Black Sea and in the upcoming hostage arms race majestic powers?
In December 2012 parliamentary elections in Romania. Hunting believe in that, and there prevail robust force and Romania refuse strange adventures — role in global missile defense system, which is a grave danger not only for Romania itself, and for all states of the Black Sea region.