Ukraine: where can shake? Ukraine faces an earthquake?

Seismic regions of Ukraine include more than 120 thousand square meters. km in Ukraine, and it is neither more nor less — about 20%. They appear earthquake intensity from 6 to 9 points on the MSK-64 scale. Earthquake-prone areas to 10.9 million people live about 22% of the total population of the country, including in the areas of the 6-point seismic activity — 7.98 million (15.5%), 7-point — 2.16 million (4 , 2%), 8-9-point — 0.79 million (1.5%). On the possibility of an earthquake in the Ukrainian land, about the consequences that may result, and much more "Observer" talked to the Deputy Director for Research Institute of building structures (NIISK) Minregionstroya Ukraine, laureate of the State Prize of Ukraine in Science and Technology, Dr. m-tech. Science, Professor, President of the Ukrainian Association of earthquake engineering Nemchinov Yuri Ivanovich.In light of the events in Japan, many Ukrainians in horror wondering whether there will be anything like this in our country. It is obvious that Ukraine is not a tsunami threat, but in terms of the probability of an earthquake, how it is high?

Messages from Japan, really disturbing, but the consequences of these events are impossible to predict. They combined both natural and man-made events.According to UNESCO on the globe are victims of earthquakes each year from 15 to 30 thousand people, material loss is more than U.S. $ 400 million a year. Geography and the number of natural disasters tend to increase every year. Looking at the chart, we see clearly that the process of increasing the number of accidents for the period from 1975 to 2010By seismic areas of Ukraine are: Crimea, part of Odessa and Chernivtsi regions, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk and Ternopil region, located in the zone of the Carpathian earthquakes and Kirovohrad and Vinnitsa regions and part of the Donbass region.Impulses which force can occur in these regions?Current data ceysmicheskie zones of varying intensity cover Crimea (6-9 points), Carpathian (7 points), Chernivtsi (6-7 points), Vinnitsa (6 points), Kirovograd (6 points), Lviv (6 points) Odessa (6-9 points), Ternopil (6 points), Khmelnytsky (6 points) of Ukraine.Most threatening in its consequences for Ukraine is the region Vrancea area,
Crimea and Transcarpathian seismic zone. Strong earthquake last occurred here in 1927, 1940, 1977, 1986 and 1990.

Can the Ukraine without the tragic consequences of the earthquake to survive the future?
The fact is that modern construction in seismic areas is complicated by the presence of geological hazards (floods, landslides, tornadoes, karst, etc.). On the territory of Kievan Rus and the Ukraine over the past 900 years there have been over 30 major earthquakes. Strong earthquakes in the Crimea in 1927 caused damage of about 70% of all buildings in Yalta. In zone 8-point effects were five cities of the Crimea. Photo clearly illustrates some of the effects of this earthquake in Yalta and Sevastopol. In the area of Alushta observed tsunami wave heights from 0.3 m to 1 m Russian seismologists have mapped the tsunami on the Black Sea.Carpathian earthquakes occurring in Vrancea Mountains, are felt over a large area and extend for hundreds of kilometers from the epicenter. They occur at sharp bend the arc of the Eastern Carpathians and the general seismic situation in Moldova and western Ukraine. The strong influence of the Romanian earthquake in Ukraine recorded in the annals of history, references, and earthquakes in various catalogs and instrumental observations in 1091, 1170, 1230, 1443, 1446, 1471, 1701, 1790, 1802, 1838, 1893, 1908, 1912, 1927 , 1940, 1977, 1986, 1990. Earthquakes of this area have been the cause of significant destruction of buildings and structures in Moldova and Ukraine.The strongest earthquakes of Vrancea area
manifested in the Ukraine with the intensity of predominantly 5-6. The exception to this trend was the earthquake October 26, 1802, which was observed in Odesa and Chernivtsi with intensity up to 7 points.As for the capital: whether its residents feel subterranean impulses and persevere if Kiev facilities. Previously, it was customary to assume that the most vulnerable old buildings, and what can you say about the new buildings, which have recently been built in Kiev shock? And it will stand Kiev dam?In high-rise buildings in Kiev, which cater to the perception of seismic forces 6 points, as well as in buildings with over 9 floors, fluctuates a lot, but it should do without damage. Of course, this will lead to the manifestation of a sense of danger in people (especially on the upper floors of buildings), panic, ringing of bells in churches. In Kiev, not an earthquake above 5 points, so with the Kiev dam did not happen because of that.Seismic scale determines the effects of the 5-point earthquake as follows: "In the room — there is a majority of people. Individuals — scared and ran out into the street. Hanging items — ranging, porcelain — ringing. Doors and windows — open. Animals — show concern. In buildings of adobe and rubble damage (pitting sealant hairline cracks in masonry joints). " But in Kiev these buildings can not be found.General seismic zoning map of the territory of Ukraine, which are designed for all residential, public and industrial buildings — SRF 2004 "A", developed by the Institute of Geophysics of NAS of Ukraine and the Crimean council of experts to assess the seismic hazard and earthquake prediction, it is included in the Standards of Ukraine.

General seismic zoning map of the territory of Ukraine, which are designed for all residential, public and industrial buildings — SRF 2004 "A", developed by the Institute of Geophysics of NAS of Ukraine and the Crimean council of experts to assess the seismic hazard and earthquake prediction, it is included in the Standards of UkraineThe most exciting question discussed everywhere, Will the Ukrainian nuclear power plants survived the earthquake without consequences?For Ukrainian nuclear power plants, including the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, the works on microseismiczoning. The maximum intensity of earthquakes is less than 6 points on the MSK-64 scale. This is — the old scale, which on presentation NIISK in 2010 replaced the Ministry of Construction of Ukraine on a new scale, harmonized with the European macroseismic scale. The document was developed with the participation of Ukrainian organizations of scientists from Russia.From the point of view of science, is it possible to predict and somehow anticipate the approach of the earthquake?From the point of view of science, you can not predict an earthquake. Was there ever a case of China in the past century, with positive results. All other predictions — it is the work of individual scientists who are not responsible for their predictions. In America, in California, where the seismic active San Andreas fault, the area is full of hundreds of seismic sensors, which record progress of the crust. There was no case to predictions were realized.Given the importance of the problem in Ukraine, the Interdepartmental Committee on Scientific and Technological Safety under the National Security and Defense of the President of Ukraine, chaired by Academician BEPaton April 3, 2008 and May 19, 2009 considered the "Status of seismic security and development problems of earthquake engineering in Ukraine. " The Commission noted the growth of negative degradation technical state construction projects in Ukraine and increased wear and tear of fixed assets in different sectors of the economy and encouraged the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine to ensure the development of concepts and programs "Protecting people and buildings from seismic hazard", a list of dangerous objects and housing and public facilities, a National Engineering and seismic service of Ukraine in the Ministry of Regional Development and Construction of Ukraine, in accordance with its logistics and staffing. We also give specific recommendations to the Ministry of Regional Development and Construction of Ukraine, the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, the Ministry of Ukraine of Emergencies and Affairs of Population Protection from the Consequences of the Chernobyl disaster, the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine and other state agencies that have to do with the problem of providing earthquake resistance of buildings and structures. At this stage of the implementation of the decision to stop financial problems.Despite the fact that you can not predict an earthquake, in seismically active regions, it will happen. And prepare for it is necessary beforehand. In the design and construction of buildings should be responsible to comply with the requirements of the Standards for design in seismic areas, carry out advocacy of the population — how to behave during an earthquake and after the earthquake, but not limited measures of recovery.Les Domaschenko


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