First citizen of the 20th century, Lenin derived a formula existence of a revolutionary situation in the society. Which are the three:
1) "the crisis at the top" when the ruling class, the managerial elite can not maintain the present state in the form of a constant;
2) a sharp deterioration in the lives of most people, the "lower classes can not" live as before;
3) growth the political activity of the masses, the radicalization of their sentiments.
In the Russian Federation clearly track down all three trends, there is a revolutionary situation.
"The crisis at the top"
Russian "elite", from the time of Boris Yeltsin, quite clearly headed for the Europeanization of the Russian civilization. Say "cheers" European place from the Atlantic to the Pacific. But the world community has long been enough, all the roles are — there are some countries banks, industrial centers, leading technology, manufacturers of agricultural products, raw materials extraction zone, the country's "factory", etc.
Russian Alliance went his own way, almost exclusively Lofty Our homeland could allow himself to be self-sufficient. But gentlemen reformers decided to get rid of the "totalitarian heritage" — the most powerful army on the planet, a strong industry, farming, free education, medicine, science and become a supplier of raw materials.
But in "raw materials appendage" does not have the 150 millionth population, pretty 10-s 2-3 million, which will be served by the "pipe" and entertain foreign tourists. Population began to decline, in the main due to his suicide — abortion, alcohol, heroin, tobacco, accidents, criminal showdowns, but it's not as fast as some hunting.
Besides, part of the political "elite" in doubt, but what next? If Russia will not, they will not need the West, the witnesses are always "clean." But the problem is that in Russia the majority of their population can not tolerate.
The fact that the full power of "liquefying brains" demonstrate the festive anniversary, arranged in honor of the municipal offender who carried out the genocide of the Russian people — Yeltsin, who was among the people, on the other, as EBN and not called. RIA "Novosti" the other day of the anniversary, on its website, conducted a survey and according to it 90% of the participants responded that Yeltsin did not thank for that, he with his own team (gang?) Transformed Russia into a third world country.
What is it says — no power or general mood of society thinks, or she spit on him.
"The lower ranks can not live in the old way"
With the destruction of the Russian industry, agriculture, infrastructure of the country, to the public, it became increasingly clear to realize that "we are divorced" in 1991. "Good wishes" reformers lined the road to hell. Natural resources that belong to the people, already the personal property of the capitalists — and homegrown zabugornyh, already there is a sale of land, forests.
Finish off the Soviet system of education, medicine, science. At the sight of crumbling Russian infrastructure — the Sayano-Shushenskaya hydroelectric power station and 10's of thousands of people without electricity in the New Year, in the suburbs, it's just "flowers". The fires in the summer of 2010, showed that destroyed Russian system of forest protection, they just cut and preventive measures actually carried out.
Bear Emperor himself not so long ago admitted that the deterioration of infrastructure headed for 70%, 20 years used the strength of the Soviet Union and the supplies are not performed Polga repair, substitution. Soon most of the population will live as in the days of yore — no electricity, sewage, district heating, gas, etc.
Well, raw material orientation of the Russian economy does not give the right amount of jobs populations — lawyers, economists, psychics, sales offices and sideltsev unrealistic produce endlessly.
The situation worsen hordes of migrants from the Caucasus, Central Asia and China. On the one hand the authorities profitably increase in the number of migrants: the decline of the indigenous population is not visible, you need to pay them less, obedient, not to rebel. But on the other hand a sharp increase in the number of migrants has caused the rise of the Russian national identity.
Also is a very severe deterioration of the majority of the population — an increase of utility tariffs (with worsening property services), the sharp rise in food prices (and in particular the increased price of food daily food of the poor — bread, milk, cereals, potatoes …), rising inflation depreciates wages.
The growing political activity of the masses
Since the beginning of Medvedev's presidency have activated sharply liberal movement — went debate on the second step of Privatization (strategically fundamental strategic companies that are left in the hands of the country), the sale of Siberia, the forthcoming "optimization", ie, the upcoming closing of schools, universities, hospitals, the number of state employees. All these events will eventually lead to the collapse of Russia and its neighbors absorption, but the country will be more millionaires billionaires.
Growth of the Russian government movement, first in the form of the skinhead movement, then simply do not already joined flegmantichnaya youth, pissed indifference of the authorities and increased etnokriminalnogo terror.
Scenarios of subsequent events
1) Bad — Using the revolutionary mood in Russian hands of young people satisfied with the Revolution (standards, as must be done every day by demonstrating teleyaschika-Tunisia, Egypt …). Police and SWAT first try to control the situation, but as the radicalization of events "evaporate", because one life, and of a power Who wants to defend. The army remains in the barracks, we have it out of politics.
Authorities seized the liberals, nationalists, plus, in the end will be the scenario — in 1917-1920. They can not control, dolman what's left — the Provisional Government number 2. In the end, the breakaway Caucasus, rivers of blood, the occupation of China, Japan, EU, USA, etc., read a history book for Grade 9. But because we do not have the Bolshevik Party of Lenin and Stalin, and of the peasantry, which nourish the warring parties, it will be the end. Global society temporarily solve their problems at the expense of the Russian civilization.
2) Good — Common sense is overcome, people will protest against the impending collapse of the Russian Federation, and not allow themselves to be lead to the slaughter, passing along a narrow line between the armed revolution and peaceful protest. But the protest must be heard, will allow young people should not rossionskoy "elite" to finish education, science and industry.
This requires a strong growth of self-consciousness Russian people, a kind of spiritual transformation, not be rossiyantsami become a Russian-Ruses, strong and awake.