On the prospects of war in Syria

According disk imaging agency "Reuters", the Syrian Army drove the rebels out of the town of Aleppo. Fight for this naikrupneyshy economic center of Syria lasted from the end of July. Abduldzhabbar favorite fighters of al-Okeydi was destroyed. But the information is received contradictory, according to other data, released only the next quarter of the city — Salah al-Din. Either way, the chronicle of recent fighting, including in Damascus and Aleppo, indicating that the Syrian army confidently pushes the militants, restoring control over the towns, their private quarters. Syrian army and the forces of law and order, after the end of the "peace mission" (which is practically acted on behalf of the rebels) have a "window of opportunity" — they do not pull up "international peacekeepers." The army may quietly, without time constraints, to conduct routine activities "cleansing" of the country from the bandits, local and international.

In Aleppo Syrian military operate under the scheme, which was used in Homs: suppress the strong points and firing positions with artillery fire and air strikes, and then conduct a "cleansing." This allows you to save the infantry and armored vehicles from significant losses. Militias are obliged to retreat, when given the opportunity, because they have no adequately prepared nor languid arms (in large quantities) to resist the pressure of a standing army.

The Syrian capital is fully tipped, the border with Turkey is blocked. In the end, defeat the rebels in the battle for Damascus and Aleppo, If the West and its Muslim allies (the Arab monarchies and Turkey) otvazhutsya on an open intervention, we will soon see how the militants come back from an open confrontation with the purpose of the creation of its own foothold in the countryside Syria to guerrilla warfare and sabotage. Militants will be re ambush on the road to commit terrorist acts and raids across the border, capturing small towns, etc. The war of attrition the enemy will continue. Militants have great resources: political and informational support to a large part of the "world community", the cash flows and the "infantry" of Arab States.

Damascus resources are much more moderate. But the regime of Bashar al-Assad can continue to fully resist if Tehran, Moscow and Beijing will not change its stance on Syria dramatically. The Syrian government has a number of trump cards. The armed forces of Syria showed great resilience and if they do not get in the way of "negotiations", they can completely solve the problem of destruction of gangs. Considerable resistance to myatezhvoyne showed the political system, the administrative apparatus Syria. We have beheld only a few cases of treason in the middle of the officers, politicians and diplomats, mass betrayal was not. Against Damascus have not entered the harsh sanctions regime, because the country can receive energy, money, ammunition and guns. Specifically about Russia's support in the field of energy supply and a loan was negotiated with Syrian representatives in Moscow. Significant populations of Syria, including the Alawites, Kurds and Christians support the government, they just want to survive. The atrocities committed by rebels repelled by their uncertain. Because statements Saudi and Qatari media that the vast majority of the population supports the Syrian opposition, far from the truth. In addition, it is necessary to take into account the factor that leads to a delay in the time of crisis phenomena in the aggressor countries. Chaos evenly covers areas of Arab monarchies, Turkey and the United States. The time factor plays a huge role for them. Suddenly the long resistance of Libya, and now asadovskoy Syria, already frustrated by all of the terms of the plan on the "modernization" of Near East and North Africa. The consequences of the steps made are becoming less controllable. If you do not come out with the liquidation of today's Syria and Iran after her, fully possible liquidation scenario monarchies of Saudi Arabia and members of the Cooperation Council for the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, as Jordan. They will simply not needed.

Immediately defeat in Damascus and Aleppo leads to a split in the middle of the rebels. The wing design of Muslims will be more independent from the central command of the Syrian Free Army (SSA). Troops under the control of "Muslim Brotherhood" has already announced its own independence. Following the example of Libya, one can argue about the future of armed confrontations between the various gangs. Likely split in the Syrian government and the council are very strong differences between the supporters of the "Muslim Brotherhood", which supports Saudi Arabia and Qatar and representatives of the "secular parties". It should be noted that the true time of radical change for the benefit of Islamic radicals, they are more assertive, better organized, their funding and arming the Arab monarchies. To them there is a big part of volunteers from abroad. Naturally, you should take into account the existence of an ideology, Islam is more specific but aims and legal competence, if liberal or socialist install the Syrian opposition.

The Syrian government in this situation should brutally crush design elements. The discussion has long ended. At the same time, try to find a foothold and to compromise with the "moderate" wing of the opposition.

Like this post? Please share to your friends: