TSAMTO, August 29. The situation around Syria escalated to the maximum under the pretext invented by government troops introduction of chemical weapons. While more cynical British Foreign Office expressed: military action against Syria will, even despite the veto of the UN Security Council.
If Russia and China, operating jointly on Syria issue, though will unblock the situation, this is a great victory for common sense.
But given the fact that the permanent army units Syria soon have gained significant success in the fight against the armed opposition (read — mercenaries), invented an excuse to use Tipo troops chemical weapons is «the last hook» to unleash the anger against Syria and accomplish the puzzle , which failed to resolve the armed opposition — to overthrow the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
What can oppose Syria in case the outer anger?
Natural advantage in the event of a ground operation is mobilized army, which for the near future accumulated extensive experience in dealing with the armed opposition, including in urban criteria. Drawback is that part of the military infrastructure has been destroyed opposition fighters. Maybe harm suffered row database, which stores ammunition and military infrastructure. Based on the fact that the military actions carried out with the opposition on virtually all areas of the country, you can imagine that the position of the main objects of military infrastructure of Syria has long been understood as the militants and their sponsors zabugornye.
With regard to the combat readiness of the air component should be emphasized that fighter aircraft in the conflict used very rarely, and the effectiveness of the introduction of military helicopters data are not available.
Fully involved in the conflict existing air defenses, which in the case of outdoor anger should play a major role (of course, that the first step is to be massed cruise missile with the upcoming implementation of aviation on the main objects of military infrastructure).
In recent years, Our homeland has performed several large arms shipments to Syria. Among the larger programs in the defense:
— Shipping 6 ZRPK 2S6 «Tunguska» (the agreement was concluded in 2004, the delivery of approximately realized in 2008);
— Shipping 18 SAM «Buk-M2E» (agreement was signed in 2007, the delivery — in 2008);
— Shipping 36 ZRPK «Armour-C1» (agreement was signed in 2006, deliveries began in 2008, this year, presumably, must now be the last batch of 6 pcs.)
— delivery of a large consignment of MANPADS «Igla» as part of launch modules «Sagittarius» (the order of 2005, the supply in 2005-2006., the number is not clear);
— Shipping 2-divisional sets of S-125 «Pechora-2M» (order from 2008, delivery in 2011 and 2012. from the Sun, 2 to 4 sets of divisional PU, only 8 PU).
Promising to be purchased in the near term in the defense sector:
— modernization of the S-125 «Neva» (several 10-s). Current technical condition of the complexes and their degree of readiness is unknown. Request a quote for upgrading the S-125 S-125 variant «Pechora-2M» was received quite long, the status is not known applets;
— purchase of «Tor-M1» (the application was received long status applets not known);
— purchase of S-300 (data not available for delivery).
It must be emphasized that so far there is no clear data on what specific type of S-300 ordered Syria in 2010 (on a number of sources — S-300PMU-1).
Expected to this contract shall be completed no earlier than mid-2014. After delivery, commissioning and comprehensive check of all equipment functioning, part of the S-300, will need at least another six months to train Syrian professionals, even if they previously have already undergone training in Russia. Because merit full alert Syrian S-300 (if they are all the same will be supplied), you can wait until late 2014 — early 2015.
In the midst of other larger programs that are currently already implemented with Syria, it must be emphasized modernization Park MBT T-72 to T-72M1-level (about 1000 units)., Supply 2-PBRK «Bastion-P», a large party of aircraft armament repair fleet of MiG-23 modernization of several MiG-29C, the supply of training equipment for helicopters Mi-17 and Mi-24 and several other programs.
Among the promising projects open a discussion questions likely purchase SSK, MBT T-90S, different types of surface warships, a number of other weapons.
Currently underway with Syria are contracts for the supply of several weapons systems, including 24 fighters and 36 MiG-29M/M2 Yak-130UBS, but at the moment they are suspended due to the actual blockade of transport routes western countries.
MTC RF and Syria began in 1956. During this period, for the Syrian armed forces were delivered about 65 missiles tactical and operational-tactical mission, about 5 thousand tanks, more than 1.2 thousand combat aircraft, 4,2 thousand artillery guns and mortars, 70 combat ships and boats Other types of weapons.
Implications for the Russian Federation
From the standpoint of ensuring its own geopolitical impact in the region for Russia is crucial conservation Fri logistics Russian fleet in the Syrian port of Tartus. MTO item in Tartus is the only reference point of the Russian Navy in the Mediterranean.
With the loss of Tartus would be problematic to deploy at a fixed base in the Mediterranean, Russian naval group.
If in the end be forced to the outer anger overthrown legitimate authority in Syria, followed by predictable step will be the U.S. military operation against Iran and Israel that will bring the theater of operations very tightly to the borders of Russia.