February 3, 2013. What we have done with the snow and cold — short days without the sun as the cause of winter depression. According to statistics, it is subject to more than half of Russians. Waiting for spring as a miracle, but announced this week, weather forecasters, the spring can not be. Because of the slight shift of climatic seasons immediately following the winter may come summer. No romance. That is, in the Russian climate a new trend — will not be more than four times of the year.
The temperature on Earth is changing. All for one degree. On the screen, a second person to notice? But this one degree yet will heat. It is already clear: the weather is something wrong.
From the weather reports for the five years the creeps. Summer — lit. Then Greece, then Spain. About the suburbs in 2010, even not want to remember. Winter — snow floods. Meter drifts per day in Europe — it is easy. Or is something generally unheard of. As freezing rain 2 years ago. And then all of a sudden tornado near St. Petersburg.
It's all faces of global climate change, scientists say. But the debate: warming or cooling?
"We need to prepare now, to begin to harvest firewood. Both literally and figuratively, because time is running out ", — said Head of the Department of Space Research of the Sun Central (Pulkovo) Observatory, Russian Academy of Sciences Habibullo Abdusamatov.
He gives the weather forecast for a couple of centuries to come. The temperature on the planet will slowly but surely fall within year. In our solar system, it turns out, there are also seasons. Now — autumn. And 40 years later, there will come winter, the cold. Little Ice Age comes once in 200 years. Previously he was at the end of the XVII century.
"This has serious implications. When Maunderskom Minimum of Finland, Sweden, Estonia lost half of the population. Because of the famine, from-for the cold, due to migration. So it is a serious problem awaits us in the future, "- adds Abdusamatov.
Here's how it happened: European frozen river Thames, the Seine, the channels in the Netherlands. Then frivolous French and even prudish English just relaxed — to skate. Without thinking, why so cold.
All matter in the Sun. Shine, but not warm. No, warm, of course, but once in 100 years a little less than usual. Radiation weakens. Land receives less heat. At the equator it is not so noticeable. And here's more — the cooler. Just because of the distance. And here begins …
But if the planet faces ice age, why now the summer heat is almost from April to October? At least in the central parts of Europe and Russia.
"The weather is getting antsy, and situations where the missing spring or fall, they become more", — says deputy director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia Dmitry Kiktev.
Because cold weather the day after tomorrow. Tomorrow — global warming. Stefan Rahmstorf with German thoroughness studied Russian heat. Conclusion: The hot summer of 2010 be repeated again and again.
"The strongest of climate change in the next twenty years will be connected with the heat. Drought, forest fires, in 2010 in Russia. Or extreme rainfall, as in Pakistan in the same year, "- said a leading climate scientist at the Institute of climate change, Stefan Rahmstorf of Potsdam.
On Earth, really gets warmer. Increased the annual average temperature in Antarctica, Bellingshausen station. But the data on the Arctic: 70 years of observations — plus 1.5 degrees.
"By the end of the century sea levels will rise by about one meter, it threatens many coastal cities will begin to flood. For example, your St. Petersburg. Well, or small islands in the Pacific Ocean "- says Rahmstorf.
The scheme is simple. Bake the sun — melting ice. It grows dark surface of the ocean. That is, it absorbs heat a larger area. The ice is melting even faster. And so — to infinity. And yet they say, the Gulf Stream cold. Those same melt icebergs diluted for. It is less heat in Europe.
"The Gulf Stream could slow down, speed up. He, too, there is seasonality. Once it is warmer, colder. But it's all short fluctuations in temperature. If it is true, cold, at least for a couple of degrees, we would certainly have noticed it, "- says climatologist at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (Poland) Michael Kowalewski.
Polish climatologist smiles, do not worry. But fears of a global climate change in a society is. They even warm up. They are well compensated.
On view — garage pasted foil. The rescue capsule — insists inventor Alexander Ubiyko. This is his brilliant answer to all the fears, from absolute zero to the sizzling heat.
"Working temperature of 800 degrees. Short-term, time — up to 1400 degrees, there is like lava lake or volcanic bomb is not a hindrance. Cold — well, absolute zero, we can not be, but minus 100 can be, "- says the inventor Alexander Ubiyko.
Fears of global climate change have long discussed at the State level. One from Reasons consider carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Plants transport.
"For one day burn as many hydrocarbons as Land garnered for 11 thousand years. Naturally, it can not affect it in the stability of the climate system, it is now out of balance, is looking for a new balance "- the director of the Institute of Water Problems of RAS Viktor Danilov-Danil'yan.
Have introduced a quota system: a country where few emissions can sell their shares to someone else. But some scientists believe: it is only economic game.
"The land has already been through the era of powerful climate change even in those times, when the Industrial Revolution had never heard, and the man still on the face of the planet did not exist", — says a leading specialist of the weather, "Phobos" Vadim Zavodchenkov.
We interviewed dozens of experts around the world: what is the worst scenario? We said, big changes are coming, but the doomsday is not in any forecast. So just wait for good weather. Or bad.