7.11.11.Chego wait Kazakhs in the near future — to heat or cold? And most importantly — how climate metamorphosis affect the economy? These are the questions we have decided to discuss with scientists Institute of Ecology and Climate Department of Environmental Protection.
No need to be an expert to not notice how the weather has changed in Almaty. A quarter-century ago, twenty below from December to February is considered normal weather. Winters are chilly and snowy. Children riding in the yards and gardens sledding and skiing. Now the snow can be found only in the mountains. In the city he, unable to fall, melting. Common in the winter months the temperature was 5-6 degrees below zero. For citizens is, at first glance, not bad. No need nakupalis warm clothes and shovel snow drifts in yards and parking lots. But climatologists believe otherwise.
Irina Eserkenova — Deputy Director General of Kazakh Research Institute of Ecology and Climate Ministry of the Environment, Ph.D. said than fraught with a mild climate. It turns out that in a warming much moisture accumulates in the atmosphere, forming clouds and, consequently, less sunlight reaches the earth's surface. This affects the ripening crops.
Almaty climate always had high humidity, and in connection with global change, he will become even more humid. According to research, in the last 100 years, in the foothills of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan celebrated the progressive increase in precipitation. For us this means that the climate of Almaty region is even wetter. In other regions of Kazakhstan — Central, West and South, with the traditionally arid climate, a clear trend to the fact that there will be rain fall even lower. If earlier in western Kazakhstan winter at temperatures from minus 20 to minus 35 from December to early March is considered the norm, the last ten years in the WKO in January can see snow and rain and the positive temperature. In the past decade there fell out so much snow that the roads had to clear away the tractors, and in some villages trucks could not get weeks. In recent years, however, the period of snowfall and keep it in the margin declined for the month. Dust storms are there more often, and in the summer rain to wait for a month. Drought spring wheat crumbles, unable to mature.
In regions with humid climates tended to his more moisture. In dry areas have to wait even more dry climate and have already planned to fight desertification.
Why are all these changes? Scientists argue that the climate is influenced by several factors. First, the natural cyclical climate fluctuations and cycles of solar activity. And then — global warming and anthropogenic factors. And it is global warming and explain human influence on the climate through the "organization" of the huge greenhouse gas emissions. In particular, over the past 100 years the average temperature around the world has increased by 0.7%. Environmentalists believe that further temperature should not rise more than 2%. A radical scholars believe — no more than 1.5%. Since a two percent increase, according to them, we are waiting for an environmental disaster. Until the early twentieth century temperature fluctuations do not exceed 0.2%. So that the output of who to blame for the warming is obvious. It was in the last 100 years, mankind has been in huge quantities to burn hydrocarbons, and as a result — we have what we have. However, some scholars hold a different view. They believe in global warming to blame only one sun. Now there is just a century maximum of solar activity. Most of the scientists of the world are of the opinion that the planet's climate is influenced by all these factors.
About what, actually, the disaster in question?
As mentioned above, the mild winters lead to less retention of snow in the fields. And to arid — is when consumption increases transpiration of plants, and precipitation remains the same. Southern, Western and Central regions of Kazakhstan — is an area of high farming. So, if the climate there will be even drier and if nothing is done in terms of new technologies and crop water use, it would be a serious blow to the economy. Cost of production of crops will increase. As a consequence, we increase the price of food.
The problem of desertification is acute not only for Kazakhstan. Back in 1992, the Republic signed in Rio de Janeiro three global conventions: Convention to Combat Desertification, the conservation of biological diversity and climate change. In June 2012, an international conference "Rio +20", in which will be attended by experts from Kazakhstan. In this forum, just and will discuss the various ways out of this situation. At first glance, what's impossible?
Burn a lot of hydrocarbons? Need to burn less! Give us new energy technologies and crop! All true, but not quite. It is known that over 180 countries have acceded to the Kyoto Protocol, under which each country determined the share of emissions. If implemented in a certain country, eco-friendly project and save emissions units, it is possible these emissions quotas to sell to other countries. Such trade is flourishing second decade. But the catch is that the largest emissions produced just countries that have not ratified the protocol or are not complete its members — the United States, India, China and Russia. Someone does not want to compromise on the pace of industrial development. Someone wants to prevent more expensive production costs. And the United States believes that it is necessary not to trade quotas and introduce high technology into production. And do not argue!
For Kazakhstan, the same unit of emissions in general are still not defined. And for the real trading we do not have the necessary legal framework. So in the Kyoto Protocol, we participate while ideologically. However, Kazakhstan is already in a position to influence their own environment through the introduction of high-tech projects, particularly in agriculture. The need to implement the project of drip irrigation for example the Middle East and, in particular, Israel has been said from the highest bleachers. Our scientists are working on new drought-resistant varieties. C real participation in the Kyoto Protocol, too, hope it is not long in coming. After all, at stake is the commercial interest of a billion dollars! Roughly the Kazakhstan shines gain from emissions trading.
Several years ago, the international media and academic circles flashed another theory of global climate change. It was a shift in the Earth's axis of a degree by a submarine earthquake, when Thailand struck a 10-meter wave. Then the opinion of Western scholars are divided.
Someone said that the shift will lead to cooling. Others, on the contrary, expect a sharp warming. However, there was not one nor the other. As explained to the domestic climate scientists, climate change — a process extended in time for hundreds and thousands of years. And then the displacement axis of a degree of influence on the climate is almost not there. So while in climate change to blame one humanity with his irrepressible desire to make rapid progress. And in the near future we will have to deal exclusively with the consequences of their own activities.
Text: Arthur Gubaidulina