The global monetary crisis has now become a major factor in determining how global and regional political processes and the direction of the internal political situation in virtually all countries of the world.
Despite the emergency measures taken by the minions of virtually all countries in the world for its settlement, rich advice and summits at the highest level of success so far in this direction can not be reached.
The reason for this is that the global monetary crisis is only a manifestation of a more profound and wide-ranging civilization crisis, which covers virtually all aspects of modern population.
To the main disparities and contradictions that gave rise to the global (on its own civilizational entities) crisis include:
1. The contradiction between the growth in production, consumption and resources needed for development, the ability of the Earth.
The resolution of this contradiction can only be due to reduction of consumption. The question arises — how and by whom?
2. Imbalances in rassredotachivanii industrial capacity and raw materials that gave rise to a conflict of interest between the advanced industrialized countries and countries supplying raw materials.
The resolution of this conflict may be, or the establishment of a more equitable global commodity-money relations, or the achievement of control over the industrially advanced countries of major planetary natural resources by establishing their rule (in some form) of the countries supplying raw materials.
3. The contradiction between the "poor" developing countries and the "rich" industrialized.
Its resolution can also be or by establishing a more equitable global commodity-money relations, or an actual liquidation of the sovereignty of developing countries, establishing over them in one way or form of military and political control of the industrialized West.
4. Contradiction between civilizations, state elites and transnational elite.
Its resolution can be, or the construction of a one-world countries, which will dominate the supranational authorities and various other transnational actors and the structural weakening or complete elimination of municipal sovereignty or the creation of a world order as a society of sovereign states, reflecting the interests of their own people, where supranational bodies only play a coordinating role, and transnational actors do not have an independent political subjectivity.
5. The contradiction between the volume of the global "financial bubble" and the scale of the real sector of the world economy.
Its resolution can be either elimination (in some form) of the world "financial bubble", risking the loss of power of transnational monetary elite, or his "conversion" in the real sector of the housekeeper, that would mean the establishment of unchallenged economic dominance of transnational monetary elite over the world.
6. The contradiction between the large global monetary authority transnational monetary elite and its lack of political subjectivity.
Its resolution can be made or the construction of a one-world countries, with the transformation of today's transnational elite in cash only subject of global power, or the removal of monetary dominance of transnational elites in the monetary system of international economic relations with the restoration of the economic sovereignty of nations.
7. The contradiction between the lack of spirituality of the "free market", the power generating means and the spiritual foundations of the existence of different civilizations that form civilizational differences that give rise to the power of thought (to varying degrees).
The resolution of this contradiction can only be through the establishment of a unified spiritual framework of world order.
Disparities and contradictions that gave rise to the development of their budding civilization crisis covers all aspects of social life and thus the configuration of land in the community to address this crisis will have to wrap all the nuances of the world order. In other words, talking about building a qualitatively new world order, on all the main nuances, different from the real one.
Specifically, for this reason, measures to overcome the financial crisis does not specifically allow and can say without fear not allow to resolve the crisis of civilization and means to remove and its manifestation in the monetary sphere — a monetary crisis.
Experience in solving 2-similar crises at first and in the middle of the 20th century indicates that their resolution is passed through the world wars — the First and Second.
Analysis of the likely options for resolving imbalances and contradictions that gave rise to the crisis indicates that they are antagonistic disposition and without substantial prejudice to the interests of the vast geo-political or other subjects that the crisis will not be resolved. And it means the inevitable introduction of military force to resolve them. Given the global nature of the crisis can be assumed that the scale of the introduction of military force to resolve it will acquire the global scale.
So Makarov, one could argue that the looming crisis of civilization is very likely to generate the highest-date World War II and will be resolved on its results.
It is time to open a discussion of the possible nature of the war.
The main qualities that determine the nature of the war though what are its members, the objectives pursued by them in this war and they solved puzzles used instrument, the main stages of the war, the causes that determine its course and possible options for its finale.
Global war will certainly coalition. The coalition will be determined by the commitment of some countries (more precisely their elites) to one or another model of a new world order that they are ready to defend the war.
Analysis of the likely options for resolving imbalances and contradictions indicates that now the new world order can only be built on one of the 2-models.
First, which may be referred to according to its nature as a "hierarchy of world civilization," and few "chosen" by defining themselves as "intellectual core of the world's population," preserve and increase the current level of consumption, at the expense of the rest of the ruthless exploitation of the earth's population with artificial reduction of staffing levels, bringing to a critically low level of use of its material and spiritual degradation.
The implementation of this model involves the disappearance of differences between civilizations — "unification" of the peoples, in fact, the disappearance of civilizations themselves, with the division of the world's population into two "super-civilization" — "golden billion" and all the other "subhuman exploited."
Now it appears as a separate state in the industrialized, with the prospect of future development of the country and the world periphery, doomed to degradation in the spiritual, economic and demographic terms.
The second model could be called as a "civilizational mutual support" or "civilizational harmony." In this embodiment, the goal of globalization is not "unification", and in the development of all the available civilizations,
to the preservation and expansion of every nation and civilization "of the field of development," which is the basis of development of each of them and all together. This is the way of the future.
In other words, in fact the case brand new global war will be fought over what spiritual foundations on which to build new world order, either in the base of the new world order will be put to individualism, selfishness, oppression of the 1st subject to others, the principle of survival at the expense of others, or in the base of global relations will be based on the community, the prevalence of the common interests of mutual survival and development of the personal, the principle of mutual survival through mutual support.
This is in contrast to its high-quality 2-previous global wars fought priemuschestvenno for the economic division of the world.
This allows you to find the conceptual structure of possible coalitions in the future world war. There will be two:
1.Obschestvo so called industrially advanced countries, the base of which will make Western civilization, spiritual framework which is based on individualism and a real start generating power tools that claim to be the world leader, which controls all the world's resources, with the liquidation of geopolitical subjectivity of all other civilizations.
2.Obschestvo of the Orthodox, Islamic and other civilizations in the spiritual basis of which the inherent dominance of the spiritual over the real, total over the personal, personal, which impartially guided by a multi-polar world order.
Now the core of the first coalition is formed not only politically, and militarily and politically, in the form of NATO.
Correctly comprehended and its global goal in the recent world war — to establish world domination — a unipolar world.
Specifically, this goal is defined in the obvious form of a "Strategy for U.S. national security" — the achievement of guaranteed access to all vitally important to the United States areas of the world, in other words, to establish control over all major regions of the world resursosoderzhaschimi.
The elites of the coalition's right, first on a spiritual level, are the main enemy for himself, as in this step, which first identified the Orthodox and Islamic civilization.
The Company states are oriented toward a multi-polar world order, which could form a second coalition still has not even realized their own geopolitical interests of the community, not to mention any political or even less military-political union of one design. A kind of prototype of the Union itself could serve as a SCO or CSTO, in this step is very somewhat lax and inefficient organization.
No developed right now, all of a recognized model of the new world order, a multipolar world in option.
These criteria only natural that impartially existing global goal of these states in the modern world war — a just multipolar world, they are not fully understood.
Because there is no awareness of the main tasks of the second coalition in World War II — defeating the attempts of world domination of Western civilization in the form of a unipolar world order.
This makes it possible to push their Western civilization in a merciless internecine struggle. Now we litsezreem as etched with orthodox Muslims and Hindus, split Islam itself, pushing Sunnis and Shiites.
Based on the merits of the first goals of the coalition can be called as a "neo-imperialist coalition", while the second — "anti-imperialist coalition."
Based on the possible target of action of its neo-imperialist coalition of major global challenge in a world war would defeat the coalition of states seeking the establishment of a multipolar world with over them political or even military-political control and the elimination or weakening of their constructive municipal sovereignty.
Based on the possible target of action of anti-imperialist coalition of its major global challenge in World War II should be — a reflection of the anger and frustration neo-imperialist coalition build a unipolar world, with preservation of its own municipal sovereignty, and following the construction of a multi-polar world order.
Taking into account the purposes of the determination of the parties in the coming world war should be expected that in the course of its use went out and brought all the most advanced form of arms and military equipment, including weapon of mass destruction:
1.Informatsionnoe tool will be used at all steps of the preparation and development of the world war in peacetime and wartime, as determined by the highest secrecy of its impact on the enemy and the absence of an international legal framework governing its use is excellent.
Information tool will be the principal means of struggle in the period of peace, but with the outbreak of hostilities, it will be applied priemuschestvenno to ensure the introduction of groups of armed forces.
2.Obydennye weapons will be used by the parties in full from the beginning of hostilities. The condition for the start of hostilities with the use of ordinary tools will create at least a small moral-psychological and legal framework for the outbreak of hostilities.
Prior to the outbreak of hostilities should expect a limited implementation of conventional arms forces special operations to ensure the effective implementation of an information tool.
Ordinary types of weapons will be used by the parties to resolve all the problems actually World War II.
3 To the main types of non-nuclear weapons of mass destruction (WMD), which can be used in World War likely include chemical and bio.
The possibility of covert introduction of bio-weapons, especially his latest designs, will allow to use it not only in the course of the fighting, and in the period of peace.
Another important feature of this type of weapons of mass destruction is a relatively small threshold implementation.
Significant impact on the scope and methods of its implementation by the parties will no doubt ease of production and implementation, allowing to use this kind of WMD by non-state and even relatively limited in their own abilities organizations.
An important factor limiting the extent of the likely introduction of a bio weapon is the threat of large epidemics or even pandemics.
It is especially necessary to emphasize the possibility of introducing a non-nuclear weapons of mass destruction by non-state organizations terrirosticheskogo sense that it can be applied as a form of self-control. With all this activity similar their warring nations will be used as a pretext (incident) for the upcoming escalation of hostilities.
4. A nuclear weapon is to this day the most massive weapons of mass destruction, which has limited the number of States 'nuclear club' and some others that are not formally entering into this "club", have nuclear weapon (namely, Israel, India, Pakistan, Iran, perhaps in the future and North Korea).
The use of nuclear weapons in the world war is likely to have a very limited scope and priemuschestvenno to intimidate the enemy in order to force him to renounce the upcoming escalation of war or forced abandonment of the impending struggle.
Large-scale use of nuclear weapons is unlikely (though not absolutely excluded), due to the fact that this would mean a national disaster for the states, to share massive nuclear strikes, with the possible disappearance from the face of the earth as municipalities.
For a correct prediction of possible future world war periodization is necessary to analyze the current state of their unions, which have the potential to make the opposing coalition in World War II.
The growing global crisis the need for constructive revision of the foundations of the global world order made trivial. Now we can say that the vast majority of state elites recognize the need to build a new world order, but in many ways it for y
The U.S. and EU countries, judging by the statements of its representatives, continue to pursue a policy to establish their own dominance in the world, with the laying on other countries (naturally camouflaged in the form of) the obligations to provide for the welfare of their own resources and to bring this development and prosperity of their own people.
The contradictions inside this society (namely between the U.S. and individual EU countries) have a non-adversarial nature and appear to be associated with the division of spheres of influence in a new world order that implies domination of Western civilization over the rest of the "uncivilized" world.
This society of the organizational and technical terms generally allow them to rely on the successful conduct of the first war and armed conflict in World War II.
Their main neuvvyazkami remain the highest sensitivity to the loss of the armed forces of these countries and the lack of readiness of the population of these States to the war, which is determined to a large extent the lack of ideological war, and limited natural resources, territory and human potential, in comparison with the rest of the world.
This determines the unwillingness of these countries to the war in moral and ideological relations, and calls into oscillation success of their coalition in the long war.
Countries that are not part of Western civilization, in the main neither institutionally nor technically are not prepared for a military confrontation of Western civilization.
Coupled with the fact that society has an advantage in the vast human potential, more highest in comparison with Western civilization and moral potential control of the tremendous natural resources and territories.
This significantly increases the chances of this company in the country to win a protracted war, also makes a great opportunity to organize resistance to the aggressor in the first steps of the war, including those based on the rise of popular resistance in the event of the defeat of their armed forces, and virtually eliminates the possibility of simultaneous attacks on geopolitical all fronts, creating a reserve of time for consolidation of non-Western civilization in the anti-imperialist coalition that also support those countries that will be the first victims of aggression on the part of Western civilization.
So Macarena, none of the possible coalitions at the present moment to the role in the World War vsepolnotsenno not ready.
Now the West can only initiate internal armed conflicts in other countries, to take part in solving them is very limited contingents of troops, placing the brunt of the fighting in these conflicts to one of the warring parties allied with them.
Well, are not prepared mentally now favorites of Western powers, including the United States, go to the large-scale use of military force to resolve the crisis in the developing world saturated weapon of mass destruction.
From this we can assume that the recent Western civilization will be put in front of a goal to resolve the crisis in their own interests to the formation of her lucrative system of international relations (build lucrative West World Order, in which he would dominate the rest of the population) by non-military means.
In turn, other countries will seek to resolve the global financial crisis in Western civilization, along with the least losses and currently form the basis for the construction of a multi-polar term and equitable new world order.
Accordingly, this first step, consistent with the objectives of the parties may be called as "an attempt to peaceful resolution of the crisis"
The principal activity of the Western civilization in this step will be the initiation of internal armed conflicts in other civilizations, first the larger, the criterion for the creation of their collapse, undermining their economic and military potential.
Measures will be taken immediately to bring its armed forces into a state of readiness to conduct large-scale military operations.
In this period of military activity will have a sub-period and will focus in the main on solving problems and demonstrative of "special operations" in the territories of other countries, as the end of combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
A common phenomenon in this step, but especially palpable for Western civilization, will increase the class, ethnic and religious struggle, the rise of xenophobia. This will serve as a good basis to start the process fascist states of Western civilization.
The duration of this step can vary in large limits — from 1-2 to 5-6 years, depending on the intensity of the crisis and the effectiveness of attempts of the West to reach their goals with the support of only non-military measures.
Taking into account the nature of antagonistic contradictions that gave rise to this crisis, we can assume that this step taken by the non-military measures will not lead to the desired result (which, incidentally, is well seen by the results of the summit 20G) and Western civilization, realizing that she did non-military measures to achieve can not go to a specific preparation for an armed struggle for resources, initially in the form of local wars and armed conflicts.
Will begin the second step, which can be called as a "threat period before World War II", during which Western civilization will begin preparing specific local wars and armed conflicts over resources.
By this time it really take shape, virtually all of the major important to the war, the qualities of the neo-imperialist coalition that will become the main form of military-political organization of Western civilization in World War II.
Within this period of neo-imperialist coalition will aim at the creation of the ideological, moral, psychological, economic, legal, political and diplomatic criteria for the successful conduct of local wars and armed conflicts initial step of World War II.
On the part of other civilizations to action at step 2 may be curbing the processes leading to the transition to the phase of the armed struggle, through the preservation and strengthening of the existing system of international security, the strengthening of regional alliances to enhance their defense, the capacity building of its own armed forces. Enormous efforts will be made towards containment of escalating international tensions even at the cost of certain economic concessions. As a holistic form of political-military organization of the states opposing the expansion of neo-imperialist coalition of anti-imperialist coalition still is not likely to take shape.
The main content of action at this point would be information operations and activities in the economic sphere, which can take many forms — from economic sanctions before the terrorist attacks on the industrial practice, as different forms of action special operations forces.
During this period, the country will be allocated, who will perform core regional consolidation of other states for the collective confrontation with anger on the part of neo-imperialist coalition.
Step over the formation of neo-imperialist coalition ready to limited wars. With all of this will likely fail in the main form, and partly political-military strategic alliances with states that oppose neo-imperialist coalition and to reveal to them in a more or less accurate as the source of danger to their national security in the form of Western civilization.
For the duration of this step will be relatively short-lived — 1-2 years, which is determined by the zeal of neo-imperialist coalition strategically pre-empt the end of the consolidation of opposing them and try to defeat them one by one in turn, avoiding the appearance of a resistance front.
With the end of the formation of the moral-psychological basis of the war, at least in the main, neo-imperialist coalition, likely to go to fight local wars ag
ainst specific countries, are the favorites or capable of becoming so in opposing it spread its dominance of regional societies. Will begin the third step of World War II, which in its essence will be a base period of World War II. Consistent with its main content can be called "phase of limited wars."
In the framework of neo-imperialist coalition will aim at the destruction of the emerging regional unions of countries by smashing appointed or shall favorites regional consolidation while terrorizing other countries in the region.
At this point, most likely a single goal action in the anti-imperialist coalition of countries most likely still will not.
Some countries have undergone anger will aim its reflection, the other — to prevent the anger against him, and others — to strengthen regional alliances as a means of protection against the growing military threat from the neo-imperialist coalition.
The main content of operations in that period will be a limited number of local wars and armed conflicts that will lead neo-imperialist coalition against countries that are taking the lead in their own regions, keen to adopt policies independent of the West.
Will be conducted internal and inter-state armed conflicts of varying intensity in countries outside the neo-imperialist coalition.
During this period, the main types will be used everyday tools. But in the case of adverse to group the neo-imperialist coalition forces and ensure the absence of reciprocal nuclear danger, we can assume the possibility of applying its single nuclear strikes to force its enemies to the abandonment of the upcoming resistance. To justify such an attack likely to provocations with limited use of chemical weapons against his own people.
The duration of this step will be determined by the ability of priemuschestvenno exposed to confront her anger and the rate of growth of the regional and global military and political consolidation of non-neo-imperialist coalition and could range from 2-3 to 6-7 years.
Outcome of this step from the time when the role of local wars conducted against the 1st country will connect other countries in the region, as the creation of a capable military defense of regional alliances, countries outside the neo-imperialist coalition.
From now starts poorly controlled escalation of the individual local to regional wars, there will be new local wars and armed conflicts.
This will mark the beginning of a new step of World War II — "a full-scale global war involving weapons of the ordinary."
Periodization of this step is now very difficult to predict, because it is determined by a lot of reasons maloprognoziruemyh now. But based on the initial state of the opposing coalitions and their natural action in the war can be distinguished three main periods of full-scale World War II with the use of ordinary tools.
First of them, which can be called as "fragmented geopolitical defense of anti-imperialist coalition" will be different because of this coalition in the country owing to the incompleteness of its own military and political consolidation will be required to keep poorly coordinated between the various regions of the global military actions, while the neo-imperialist coalition, acting in concert and owning The advantage of the organizational abilities of self-respect and transport infrastructure will be wielding the geopolitical initiative to lead the coming geopolitical freely maneuvering forces them to focus on important at that point of time or other geopolitical regions.
The length of this period will priemuschestvenno, determined by the time necessary to anti-imperialist coalition of countries to organize concerted action on a global scale and over time can range from 2-4 to 6-7 years or more.
Beyond, which is based on the ratio of the emerging abilities of the parties may be called the period of "geopolitical balance" is also quite long — 3-5 years, and will end the exhaustion of neo-imperialist coalition of human and material resources to conduct simultaneous in all theaters of World War II, large-scale offensive action.
As a result, neo-imperialist coalition will be required to go to the geopolitical and defense will find ways to end the war in the few currently applicable criteria. There will come a step "coming of the anti-imperialist geopolitical coalition." During this period may be falling in some countries, governments neo-imperialist coalition, as a result of mass demonstrations of the population (including the military), caused by the hardships of war and the loss of the opening of the war.
In the event that such action will take place in several leading neo-imperialist coalition countries, it could lead to the collapse of the coalition, and maybe the end of World War II victory for the anti-imperialist coalition.
In step "a full-scale world war involving ordinary weapons" may have been individual single nuclear strikes more of the neo-imperialist coalition, but their ability to be significantly lower than in the previous steps in light of the growing danger of a response from the nuclear powers of anti-imperialist coalition significantly mainly related to military treaties with other countries in the coalition.
Significantly reduced by this step and scope of internal armed conflict in the anti-imperialist coalition ultimately more decisive measures to counter them.
In the face of the identified global enemy, will recede into the second plan of regional contradictions and ended military conflicts between the imperialist countries of the coalition.
But the threat of a large-scale introduction of covert biological weapons of mass destruction on the part of neo-imperialist coalition will increase significantly.
With the reduction in capacity on the upcoming neo-imperialist coalition warfare and the increasing scale of military defeats and political tension in her country out of the war of some of its members and the inability to reach the world for at least a little of applicable criteria themselves, neo-imperialist coalition can go on the limited use of nuclear weapons, as a last resort to forcing the opposing coalition for peace.
There will come a step "limited introduction of weapons of mass destruction."
This step will be very small — from several days to several months, which is defined by a sharp increase in risk of transition to full-scale use of nuclear weapons and the heavy losses in the middle of military personnel and civilians.
A distinctive feature of his party would use nuclear weapons (mostly tactical) in the form of single and multiple impacts, amid continuing fighting everyday tool.
Most likely, after which the warring coalitions will have to go to the peace talks and end the world war by signing a mutually acceptable peace.
But if it does not, then the face of danger complete defeat neo-imperialist coalition can go for a full-scale use of nuclear weapons.
As part of this step — "full-scale introduction of nuclear weapons," the parties change the composition of the main nuclear strikes of their strategic nuclear forces. It will be the small step and the duration will be a number of days.
As a result, the mutual destruction of the country's leading undergo opposing coalitions, and coalitions can lose themselves unity.
Global war disintegrate into weakly interconnected system of local wars and armed conflicts which are uniformly attenuate the loss of a real base to continue the war, tremendous losses among the personnel and the peaceful population, their demoralization.
In this scenario, global war likely to end by conclusion of a separate peace treaty.
The possibility of development of the situation in this embodiment can be assessed as very unlikely, as the mutual destruction — totally unacceptable finale for both opposing coalitions.
With the start of peace talk
s favorites coalition military action in certain regions and areas likely to drop out — the parties will strive, by suspending the confrontation in the geopolitical scale, likely to achieve the end of World War II, various strategic and operational success to strengthen its own position in the peace talks, the creation of the preconditions To achieve profitable political configuration of the future world order in certain regions of the world.
Analyzing the experience of previous wars can imagine that rapidly achieve vsepolnotsennyh peace agreements that allow quite complete military action will not work and the duration of this step can make a couple of years — from one year to 4 years or more.
With the end of the peace negotiations and the conclusion of peace, there will come a step "of a new world order."
As part of this step will end the legal registration of the new world order, with the creation of his respective international legal framework, the creation of new and reorganization of extant international coordination and other organs, the formation of the modern system of international governance and coordination, elaboration and adoption of new ideological foundations of life of civilization, shaping public benevolent or neutral relationship to the finals consisted of World War II, a new basis for the reorganization of the global economic order, the transfer of the armed forces in a peaceful position, the reorientation of the industry on the issue of peace-time production. Will be carried out once the local military action to destroy illegal armed groups.
Total duration of this step, according to the scale of actions that need to be made and the experience of the end of the previous wars could range from 3-4 to 7-10 years or more.
The presented version of periodization probable World War II formed the basis of speculation that the Russian nuclear arsenal is a deterrent for states neo-imperialist coalition.
In the case of neutralizing the nuclear potential of the Russian Federation neo-imperialist coalition is likely to run on the settlement of pre-emptive strike nuclear capability of China and other opposing states possessing nuclear weapon and go to the unlimited use of nuclear weapons thereby fails to achieve complete victory.
It can happen at any of the steps of World War II. But more than likely that this will happen in a period of threat or on the first steps of World War II.
An important element in the analysis of temper at least some of the war is to identify its causes and possible outcomes that define one or the other of them.
Final World War II will be to a large extent determined by the underlying resources of the opposing coalitions: the spiritual, scientific, military, factory, human, resource and territorial potentials.
Neo-imperialist coalition has a clear advantage in the scientific, military and industrial potential, has a proven military-political organization and geographically placed very compact, and reliable monitoring of the ocean and sea lanes, an advantage in the means of air transport allows it to act in concert as a single system. By the feeble sides of the coalition include the least significant areas occupied by it, limited supplies of resources do not permit her to lead a long and rich military actions, the lack of ability to carry out the ideological control of the bulk of the population of the planet, including those of its own population, because of the need to hide real purpose, in other words the lack of real, adopted population of these States the ideological base of the war, the consequent lack the necessary level of moral and psychological readiness of the population to war, the highest sensitivity to losses. Significantly reduces the ability of neo-imperialist coalition and significant in number of representatives of the diaspora of people from other states, which form the basis for the emergence of political inconstancy in it.
This gives it significant advantages over anti-imperialist coalition, first on the initial steps of World War II.
The anti-imperialist coalition will exceed its own enemy in the spiritual, human, resource and territorial relationship, much inferior to the respect of organization, information and economic abilities. In addition, the country's anti-imperialist coalition of geographically separated and possess a very limited ability to control the seas and oceans, air, gallakticheskogo and information spaces.
It is an advantage to be shown later stages of World War II.
Because neo-imperialist coalition will strive to solve all the major geopolitical tasks during the first steps of World War II, must not be tightening. Given the tremendous anti-imperialist coalition an advantage in the size of territories occupied by it, the human and spiritual potential opportunity Merit goals of World War II neo-imperialist coalition following her first steps can be assessed as unlikely.
Tightening of World War II in the criteria for the conservation of nuclear deterrence factor of the Russian Federation and in part of China, dramatically reduces the chances of a complete victory neo-imperialist coalition. These criteria significantly increases the possibility of establishing parity of the world, when the parties have virtually exhausted the capacity for the coming of war, to agree to a partial satisfaction of their own claims. Such a final version of World War II can be assessed as very possible.
The possibility of complete defeat of neo-imperialist coalition, given its large nuclear arsenal (the U.S., Britain and France, as well), there is only subject to the appearance of internal social explosion in the leading countries of the coalition, the United States first. The possibility of such final, taking into account the multi-ethnic composition of the United States, the presence of significant internal contradictions, first at the state and class-based, and the prevalence of individualism in the spiritual realm exists, but that of the final version can be evaluated as soon as probable.
Significant (taking into account the evolving situation in Russia as "the fifth column of the West" has a significant impact on decision-making in the field of defense, namely, the orientation of the Armed Forces) can be seen as an opportunity neutralizing the nuclear potential of in the threat period or during the first World War II with the steps next hop neo-imperialist coalition to unlimited use of nuclear weapons, which will allow it to achieve complete victory.
The analysis leads to the conclusion that the newcomer global war if it all the same to be unleashed to affect a large part of the world, covering virtually all the continents, oceans and seas. For the duration of the period it can envelop from 6-7 to 25-30 years.
In military operations can take the role of more than 100 million people on both sides.
The total loss of the world's population may exceed several hundred million people.
Because all the conscientious people of the Earth, of all states, including those that relate to the work of a true neo-imperialist coalition must do everything possible to prevent such a development of the world situation.
To do this, you need to moderate, may be the force of law, by other means, greed, international and government bigwigs of the economy, first of monetary sphere, pause, consisting in the service of their principal, selfish, besprintsipialnyh and sometimes very short-sighted politicians.
This can be done only on the basis of international consolidation efforts.
Academy of Geopolitical problems,
Doctor of Military Sciences
Sivkov Konstantin V.