As our geopolitical situation has changed in recent years
The world is rapidly changing. Geopolitical setting and the principles that seemed strong a decade back, now destroyed. Areas of interest of different nationalities can get a global scale. Create new blocks and alliances. Military conflicts erupt and revolution. How does all this impact on the international situation of the Russian Federation? What can counter threats to the country's foreign policy? How much do we have if not friends, then allies?
"Free Press" has opened a series of publications devoted to answering these questions. We started with a military theme, but now the order of the day or — geopolitical configuration. That happened in this area over the past 10 years, says the chairman of the Islamic Committee of Russia Heydar Jemal.
"SP": — Heydar Dzhahidovich what the geopolitical features of the modern Russian Federation?
— I would start with the fact that 20 years ago there was not some newcomer Our homeland. It's not finished piece of Russian Union, who lost in Cool war and surrendered to the West because of the inability to think politically own favorites. In fact, the West has permitted Russian nomenclature to "merge" the communist ideology. And in return allowed her to get up c knees, and plunder that was created in the Russian Union.
One must clearly understand that what appeared on the terrain of the former Russian Empire in 1917, no work has none to 1970 1980 or by 1990. Real Bolshevism ended in 1934, when she was quite accomplished counter-revolution, the Stalinist Thermidor. Then began nomenklatura-bureaucratic period, which in 1991 was defeated and turned into agonizing nomenclature oligarchic capitalism.
These are the same people who went out of his coat Stalinist ministers. Not commissars who were killed, and specifically ministers, appeared in the aftermath of the war — the corrupt, corrupt.
If we realize this — that we are now living in the agony of the dying nomenklatura-bureaucratic regime — then it becomes clear how certain forces are local mode through certain stages, so just to finish off a wounded animal.
"SP": — What is it all the same forces?
— The period of the post-cold peace after 1991 was a period of privatization under the control of the Democrats Clintons. When they went Chubais, Gaidar, Gusinsky, Berezovsky, with their family flourished. These characters have been all the protection of the American Democratic Party. Internal oligarchic system of Russia was made in two halves: those who have all been signed Yeltsin and those who stood up without the help of others through local inexplicable from the standpoint of the law of the resource — Rakhimov, Shaymiev Luzhkov. With them, Yeltsin kept a cautious hidden struggle, but could not overpower them. Yet, their "clean-up" was imminent — and it has entrusted to Putin.
Putin has made two fundamental things. He moved out of the camp of the Democrats in the Republican camp. Taking advantage of Sept. 11, he crowded into friends Bush and first announced support for America. Meanwhile Putin canceled its obligations to the previous era — before Gaidar-Chubais feral oligarchic capitalism. Putin began to build a system based on verbovanii security officials to management, including the economy. Naturally, he came into bitter conflict with those who are not up to the signing of Yeltsin. As a result, they are all in one, were taken per frame. At the moment we can say that all ancient guard, supported by local, soil resource eliminated.
From the perspective of foreign policy of the Russian Federation, Putin period — a period of unrestrained demagogy. Basically, it was a curious Western curators, the Yankees: they frighten Russia to Europe, which had to be kept in check. And Putin is perfectly executed the order, banging his fist angrily, referring to the imperial ambitions. It was a beautiful pen Europeans back into the stall — stall the U.S. chain of command.
But everything does not go just like that. When instead there is an imitation of real politics, inside the developing processes of decay. In the end, under the leitmotif of his Munich speech, our homeland completely got rid of the remains of Russian power and turned his army to clean police force, which has only an internal enemy — its people. Resist external enemies, not including the nuclear button, Our homeland can — but does that Georgia, well, it will be a tug of war.
"SP": — What can you say about the current situation?
— We are entering the final phase. Russia is increasingly associated with Libya and Egypt are increasingly rising topic Tahrir Square. I think the arrival of Putin as Russian president will be applied west to raise the issue of a brand new bolshennom Saadame number 2 — Putin.
Putin will be converted into a scarecrow. One can imagine that the election results will not be recognized by the West that sanctions will be imposed, and the event will be to destabilize the Russian Federation around the perimeter of its borders — in the South Caucasus and Central Asia — in order to reach the panic of the bureaucracy and the collapse of the "vertical".
This will be the moment of truth for the Russian people. Since the revolution in Russia and the transition to a newcomer is always in the moment of maximum danger for the country, when it starts troubled times, when the question of its physical existence. Then begins a movement that sweeps the bankrupt rulers, and puts forward new favorites, taking responsibility for the subsequent historical era. I think it will be so in this case.
"SP": — How to present weighty our impact on the post-Soviet space?
— Instructed the West of — as a splinter of the USSR — oversee this place. He always did. In the XVII century, when the Romanovs came to the throne, the West treated them as their own "looking" for a great and terrible territory of Eurasia. Through a series of deft actions he transformed Romanovs dynasty in the process of the monarchical system in Europe. In fact, none of the Russian Romanov dynasty were not, there was an endless procession of German royal princes and princesses, to Orthodoxy and Russian speaking with an accent. These were cousins and cousins of the Habsburgs, and, in fact, an extension of the Western monarchy spawn. This mycelium was interrupted in 1917.
At the end of the second world the Soviet Union was once again thrown into the world the Western system, and with 1970's irreversibly turned into members of the imperialist division of the world. For Moscow, it was contraindicated: in the form in which it has developed since 1917, he had no right to become a partner of the world system, and could only survive in a confrontation her. By agreeing to the convergence, it has doomed itself to failure.
After 1991, Moscow was staged in the West as the "looking" for the CIS. But Yeltsin and Putin did it so effectively that the ambition to take the place came to our neighbors — Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. In any case, the Alma-Ata in the years 2008-2009, before the crisis seriously pretend if she could make up for a lack of Russian presence in the CIS.
At the moment, the impact of, for sure, and not worth it. The South American presence in the territories of the former Soviet Union so overwhelming that we talk about competition with the United States is not necessary. From Tajikistan South American aircraft flyin
g bomb Afghanistan. In Uzbekistan, the de facto Americans decide there will be another color revolution or not. Kyrgyzstan has lost its own president who dared to bargain with the Yankees over the deployment of U.S. military bases. As a result, the Kyrgyz president's hiding — probably in Belarus. What to Turkmenistan, she quietly lying on his tummy. Once Nursultan Nazarbayev thinks of independent Kazakhstan against him immediately initiated several criminal cases, the strings are in the hands of the Yankees.
Because we talk about the impact of Moscow is not necessary. On her side there is some inflation of the cheeks, different summits. In fact, even Armenia, which is entirely in the dependence on Moscow, Russia on porykivaet periodically threatens finger to indicate that she is dissatisfied.
"SP": — How big for us Chinese threat?
— China Russia is not unsafe in the usual reason: it is — a clay giant. As a historical empire, today's China is doomed. He is tied to the markets, he and a half billion hungry people, which, if at the moment of crashing the South American and European markets use, sit on such poor rations that will rebel.
Inside the five centers of power in China: Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Tibet, Manchurian north to Beijing, south to Shanghai, plus the south-west close to the South-East Asia — it is quite a separate region, closely associated with the creation of opium and the Mafia. All of these areas are secured only by the Communist Party of China. A Communist Party there deideologized, it is only the organizer of production — in fact, a supervisor for the creation, which brings her the money. But these funds — the South American. China does not dare to declare the yuan fully convertible currency, to reincarnate it into a weapon. The Chinese are bound to buck, as tied to the market.
The Chinese could, of course, to invest in the emergence of a strong export zone in the Islamic East — is Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran, Egypt. If these countries have come to power political Islamists, they might be ideologically reincarnate 500 millionth user in the area of Chinese high technology. But for China, it is very durable, and very expensive, they prefer to work with what we have.
"SP": — Who, for example?
— For example, in Sudan, where the Chinese have tried to acclimatize. But President Omar Hassan al-Bashir was not at his best as a politician, and China kicked out of Sudan. Later, the Chinese have relied on Gaddafi, it was clear to them. But 90% of the projects Gaddafi ended zilch — it is, in fact, only the post-Stalinist dictator simulator era, like Saddam. All such Teran, having bolshennye means, argue about the project to build the tower of Babel. But when it comes down to it, none of their assets does not see, the towers are not built.
The only one who could reincarnate this large region in the alternative consumer of Chinese products, technologies, and large-scale projects directly to gallakticheskih — is political Islam. In case if Islam would have come to power in these areas, and redistributed to income from corrupt sheiks and presidents for the projects "sudden jump" — the accelerated development. But China will not wait.
"SP": — Expect to have a long time?
— No, just the pace of the crisis on China will develop faster than the politicization of Islam, that may raise China feet. China will most likely not survive the next crisis three or four years. He tipped in 30 years overtaking the U.S. and Europe, but, apparently, in China will begin internal social upheaval.
They are complicated by the fact that the United States will provoke a war on its borders — first, with India (may be, in general, it would be an alliance of India and Japan, as it is a long time). A combination of internal social shock from the outside anger — this is the end for China. For the U.S., by the way, is very unsafe to delay the start of such operations. Chinese military machine developed at an accelerated pace.
On the agenda of the day or in China — the construction of aircraft carriers. They have already brought gallaktichesky module for theirs is the upscale missiles that reach the level of modern Russian. Do they have rockets tactical purpose, capable of hitting targets such as private ships in the ocean over 2,000 km from the coast. In other words, tomorrow China will not get naked hands. Because, I think, the military operation on the borders of China will begin promptly, perhaps as early as 2012.
"SP": — How do you assess the geopolitical position of the United States?
— The United States, too, staring into the grave. The only way to survive for the Yankees — to get out through the majestic shocks. It is clear that in the period of peace States has been a peripheral state, and turned into a world power and a superpower at the expense of 2-wars in Europe, where they rose. This strategy they use and rely on.
"SP": — What place in this world can take our home?
— RF's place in the world is only one option. It can and should be a point of assembling all the forces of protest — from Brazil to the same China. Since Undercover of — a special secret — in iniquity.
Our homeland — is a special country, in which all lament the fact that there do not understand the law, do not follow the law. As if because of this, from the standpoint of the Liberals, the Russians are poor and bad. No warm toilets in the village, and so on.
In fact, lawlessness — a providential treasure. Since our homeland, as said at the time the chief procurator of the Holy Synod, Konstantin Pobedonostzev — is an icy desert, through which walks a dashing man with an ax. This is her plan.
In Europe, nothing can be done for all Europeans taken away the initiative. In the East, you can do a lot, but now the East has no acceleration. In the East, there are human resource, but there is no reason the impact on the world, not enough critical mass. But in Russia this critical mass is. Is lawlessness, and there is critical mass. In conjunction with the important task Our homeland is a valve that changes the course of history.
"SP": — Due to what we can influence the world?
— The only impact that can have on someone else — it's a spiritual impact. Americans, for example, can anyone provide Dukhovoye impact. South American dream, liberalism, and what is called a good American life — it's so pathetic and went that ideological influence has not. Americans can only rely on the operational work of its agent, to bomb, and therefore surrounded by a ring of hatred.
But Iran is now the ideological impact is even more powerful than, say, Russian Alliance in the last decade of his own stories. Iran — an ideological government. Cuba is the same to this day is the ideological state, Venezuela — too. These countries form an alliance of non-aligned, opposed to the West, and create attractive mental recollection. They weigh something — despite the modest size.
See: Iran opposes the West virtually alone, and for all that could in the past 10 years to become the 15th economy in the world. Western intelligence agencies are trying to ignite the color revolution in the country, Iran is subjected to the sanctions regime, a powerful media campaign in the world is driven into the heads of people hate and disgust towards Iran. Still, the economic development of Iran ahead of Turkey, which has the full support of the West line and is a member of NATO. In Turkey, there is a powerful stream of tourists who bring bucks, there is formed a military-industrial complex, which assembles a Western tool, right up to the frigates and aircraft. The result — Turkey is the 17th economy in the world, and Iran — the 15th, when a single population.
Now imagine this example, as the fact of effective confrontation of the system. He was so provoked the economy and technology, which in
the worst criteria it does not allow the country average or a little roll and strangle. In fact, our oligarchs, our pragmatists and cynics who believe in Mammon, simply do not understand what a real politician. I think it will come new people who own political consciousness, and reformat the entire post-Soviet space in the right way.
"SP": — How will it look?
— It will be a confrontation between the world system that is based on the alienation of human time, the division of consumption and production, and credit and speculative system. This system triggers the economy, increasing credit and consumption, and lowering the price of human time in the areas of production. Behind this is a neo-liberal management, and after him, saying, theological language — Satanism, it is the dominant current of spiritual powers.
"SP": — What can be opposed to this?
— Solidarity nations — an international alliance, plus a profound awareness of history. Not because it was aware of Marx and Engels — the development of the productive forces that are pulling the ears social affairs. Marx and Engels, in principle, put in your own teaching very bourgeois and petty-bourgeois purpose: the abundance of goods, which will allow to work as little as possible, and free time to devote development of the human personality.
The fact that they represented themselves to these goals without the achievements of modern psychology, such as Freudianism. And not quite give the report that 99% of the population, and in particular to develop something. In other words, if you take away the need for people to work hard, earning a slice of daily bread, a man is transformed into an unsafe lumpen. Or, it should be supported by buoyant ideology, a religion that makes it — even the unemployed — being meaningful and purposeful.
Our task — not social government. Our task — to ensure no excess needs in order to become rich lumpen could go to Antalya. A completely different task — to give people the opportunity to influence their fate and impact on history.
Since grown rich lumpen who travels to Antalya — this is rubbish, the socio-political point of view. He can never find anything — not in their own country, nor in his life, nor in the life of kids. And to achieve the feedback with time and history.
This occurs only in moments of great upheaval. During the French Revolution, in 1917, people had an impact — they are, in fact, took the course of history in their hands. But later they seized the opportunity. This experience should be used so that the ability to influence the story has not been ripped out of the hands of the majority of the hands of real people. So that the people themselves were worthy to have an impact on the fate and history, that they have grown before. That clever crooks and nomenclature is not getting ahead, and do not hold a candle to cut them off on the move, turning them into a mass at the demonstration, which carries posters on May 1.
The main task — to reincarnate human factor in a proactive participant stories, which always has a superhuman sense of orientation and superhuman. Maybe it's just the idea of responsible Christian obozhivaniya. Not obozhivanie as the reincarnation of a virtual god-like creature, through asceticism in the desert by eating locusts and wearing fetters. A obozhivanie method of transformation of the human factor in the partner about the history of the divine plan at the collective level — at the level of salvation of mankind. Here it is — a worthy task.
Boris Pankin, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of the USSR, former Russian Ambassador to Britain:
— On the geopolitical position of our country worked disintegration of the Union of Russian, which was not so imminent and fatal, as they say. The Communist regime, which, indeed, came to the handle, and that it was necessary to eliminate. Another thing — split the country (Russian alliance or, if you wish, the former royal Our homeland), which was approximately the same borders for centuries. How to read our majestic philosopher Lev Gumilev, this one-sixth of the globe — a feeding and accommodating place for a comfortable stay on it hundreds and hundreds of different nationalities and ethnic groups. We, as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union, 60 million people turned out citizenship of the Russian Federation, 25 million of them — Russian. This, as you are aware, could not affect the weight of the country and its geopolitical position.
A second blow came from the liberal economic reforms. Rampant privatization, dubbed the grabbing, and pursued those mi same feverish pace, as once collectivization. When people inside the country feels bad when an unlimited number of people to lose something in their own lives — we talk about weight bolshennom country in the world hard. Despite the fact that we continue to have international legal characteristics of the majestic power. We, for example, is a permanent member of the Security Council, we enter the "eight" and "twenty". But, you see, in the same "eight" We hold, rather, out of mercy.
As a result, we have lost very many. This coming our weight in the global society will depend on our internal situation.
"SP": — If you look at the world around us, where our positions occurred largest configuration?
— We have more than a weak player — here's the thing. Take, say, the Middle East peace process. Previously, there were two of the co-chair of the peace process — the United States and the Soviet Union. In October 1991, I had the opportunity, as the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the USSR, in Madrid, to open on behalf of Presidents of the United States and the Russian Union of the conference, during which for the first time put the table of the Arabs and the Jews.
Then the Soviet Union and the United States were treated as equal partners. In Egypt. Syria, Jordan, where I had been before the Madrid Conference, all states that require such power, as the Russian Alliance — to serve as a counterweight to the United States. But at the moment this is not a counterweight, although technically we are present at all.
For example, President Medvedev sent Margelov mediator — to solve prepyadstviya in Libya. But Gaddafi, who at the time was still in force, it just did not accept neglected. That's activities in Egypt and Syria develop without our significant role. Or take the South Europe — Yugoslavia, Kosovo, and there we declare the right things, but to no one in particular it does not listen.
"SP": — Who can be compared at the moment Russia by foreign powers?
— In my opinion, there can not be carried away by comparisons. It is clear that the configuration of 2-majestic powers — the United States and the Soviet Union — was gone. In times of Russian balance held at the Cool War, the metal curtain that was like a bad thing. But in the new criteria only superpower, which has remained — the United States — allows for themselves, even more than before. In this — the greatest danger.