Chatter on the Web about the situation in Mali, articles to various analysts, professionals hypothesis, various records and reports, announcements, which are innumerable, mostly boil down to one: several French legions African troops and a bit of air strikes expel Islamist fanatics world map. Do not count on it, says journalist Mort Rosenblum, more than once in Mali.
In his latest blog post «Rendezvous» («New York Times») is given a sharp enough score following Western «blitzkrieg» against Islamists. No, he is not against the military operation, but apparently believes that the West is their strength and ability to overestimates.
Sand Mali, writes journalist on location twice the size of France. Desert, mountains, caves, through which the Tuareg traveled a thousand years. Religious fervor and a new campaign «Al-Qaeda» — only a small part of local history. Mali has long been at war with itself, the nomads of the north are at war with sedentary tribes of the south.
Tuareg those that wear turbans indigo — men are very hard, says the creator of the material. Their «news», in other words, victory and loss, hard to trace.
Those citizens believe that we could get to a phone or connect to the network and give the message to «Twitter», it is impossible, according to the creator. «News» that the U.S. and Europe are built on a similar basis, hardly authentic. If the rebels were killed in some places, it does not mean that they were defeated. Here desert roads here.
In the north of the country was looking for jihadist mass shelter for himself a long time before the fall of Gaddafi in Libya. To an old Tuareg secular offense was so Makarov added religious fanaticism «of al-Qaeda.»
Many of us continue to Rosenblum, including a computer in the morning, thinking that the world «begins» with a keystroke. Each decline we litsezreem beginning and end. Occasionally where it is so, and, of course, not in the north of Mali.
Reporter should know this very well, says journalist before to talk about the future, and even more so about the changes in the forms of societies in West Africa. The creator believes it will need a very long time to recover romantic time Timbuktu and Malian music and that this country has again become one of the best places on Earth …
Fighters from the «Al-Qaeda», note knew what they were doing. In 1-x, in the 2000s, little by little moving to the desert, mountains and turning mastering cave in comfortable housing, they were hiding in inaccessible places and gaining strength. In-2, after the fall of Gaddafi and they, and the Tuareg have access to the Libyan weapons — and not only the Kalashnikov. B-3, after Gaddafi, becoming dead, did not help the real Tuareg, they strongly offended, and a bit later announced his government Azavad. And made it the capital of Timbuktu. And all this hodgepodge of grievances, religion, old stories and desert geography of French soldiers, even with the help of African soldiers, not to win. Temporary victory likely, but absolute victory? No, it’s hard to believe. In that case why the Americans did not win the Taliban? And the same «al-Qaeda»?
However, here we have in front of the French, not the Americans.
But here’s the newspaper «Parisienne», trying to track down military action in Mali, says that in the midst of the Malian terrorists appeared and French compatriots. According to the views of the creator notes, it is not about the famous Breton Gilet Le Guen (aka Abdel Dzhelil), which adopted Mohammedanism and went to Mali to fight with the wrong in the name of Allah, and about someone else, and, perhaps, a few other. A newspaper «Libération», leading the editorial talking about Mali, writes about the country closely ties with France (colonial heritage is regarded as a positive factor); of the first successful (to a point) there the steps of democracy; the experience of the Malian civilization smogshey connect different cultures and different languages. Creator editorial optimistically adds that after the war, France will open the doors of institutions for the young generation inhabitants of Mali. Specifically France there elite form of civilization. After all, specifically the lack of decent elite in the country — one of the reasons for which the situation is complicated because there is a «very average military coup.» Created by an editorial in the newspaper «Libération» concludes: «Mali will never be the new Afghanistan.» This fanfare.
France’s military plans are very ambitious. Not on another, Monsieur Hollande, who has to fondle sexual minorities (in accordance with the pre-election promises, but against the will of the majority of the population), which is at odds with prosperous citizens of their own country and the Constitutional Council because of the illegal introduction of the sample of 75% of income tax, and which advanced journalists directly oppose de Gaulle decided to slightly raise its reputation Malian blitzkrieg.
French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told the press, the purpose of Paris is «complete liberation» of Mali from Islamist militants. At least France did not agree. The Minister gave an interview on French television, and stressed that the French army will not leave in Mali nor 1st hearth resistance.
What progress on Malian front in France?
In mon jointly by French military forces and the government army, conducting anti-terrorist operation «Serval» were employed two principal town in central Mali: Diabali and Duentsa. As witnesses say, the locals greet the troops. According to the views of observers, the success achieved by the French and Malian parts in the central areas, gives them the ability to deploy the coming to northern regions.
Already 10 countries, mostly Western, have Paris logistical assistance. In Mali, a battalion of soldiers of countries — members of the Economic Society of West African States (ECOWAS). They will support Mali army to fight extremists seized the northern areas.
January 22 it became clear that the French troops in Mali posodeystvuyut British. England will send about 500 troops there. Said at a speech in Parliament, Prime Minister David Cameron, UK. But he distanced himself from direct military action:
«The main task of the mission — is training troops in West Africa who wish to assist in stabilizing the situation in Mali. This training, not combat mission. «
Later, the official dealer of the premier confirmed that British troops will not participate in military operations against Islamic extremists.
London did not previously planned to send armed troops to Mali. Said just about giving the French 2-military transport aircraft «Boeing C-17 Globemaster» delivery equipment.
Now, perhaps you should expect from Cameron’s statement that 500 people will still take part in hostilities. Western leaders — they like ladies. Utter one thing and do the opposite later.
The Canadian resource «CBC News» information appeared that Canada is going to assist in the Malian operations. Government began to establish contacts with the French and American sides on the crisis in the African country in the spring of last year. Currently, the government assumes assist France one heavy transport aircraft C-17 (task: transport of French military equipment). But Canadian experts believe that the operation in Mali is undesirable due to the fact that the world will get to Mali second exhausting Afghanistan.
Evening January 21 the Government of Mali has extended the state of emergency in the country for a period of 3 months. Commenting on this decision, bureaucrats noted that military operation to liberate the occupied territories Islamists progressing well, but the country needs peace. State of emergency prohibits public gatherings and rallies, also sets the curfew in some towns and regions. The state of emergency was introduced on January 11.
Egyptian President of the French operation dissatisfied. He, like many experts believed that a military conflict leads to the appearance of the world’s newest «hot spot». Speaking at the summit of the Arab League in Al-Riyadh, Mohammed Mursi said he did not approve of direct military intervention of France in military conflict on the territory of Mali.
According to him, Egypt does not support a military operation against Islamist French troops, as it believes that this will lead to the emergence of a «new hot spot», not a lot of new conflict will be the prerequisite of «separation» between North African countries and their southern neighbors.
At the same time Egyptian president urged the international community to support the Government of Algeria, faced not so long ago with the terrorist attack on the gas field «Amenas». Terrorist attack just explained their revenge for the intervention of France in the Malian conflict.
As for Algeria and Mali, the experts in international armed conflict are afraid of appearance between the betrothed with 2 countries. Head of the Center of Russian-African relations and foreign policy of the African Korendyasev Eugene, last salting of in Mali, Algeria commenting role in the development of events in the region, praised it as crucial. After all, today’s rebellion in the country of Mali — the fourth, and to achieve a peaceful past three finals Algeria played the most important role.
Uprising by professional beliefs, there is the usual method for the Tuareg to defend their rights. Of the 1.5 million population of Mali Tuareg typed about 400 thousand. But Tuaregs still live in Algeria, Libya, Niger, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, and all representatives of this nation of about 1.2 million. «COX» protest movement today extremists associated with «al-Qaeda.» Korendyasev believes her cell in the region were made in the late 90s — specifically as bastions to attack Europe. A crucial role in today’s events, according to the views of fellow Korendyasova played defeat Gaddafi in Libya: Tuareg, held in Gaddafi’s army, after the defeat of the Sahara back perfectly armed. Now these people are the backbone of the military groups in the region.
Operation was not such easy as it seemed at first to the French.
Eugene Korendyasev explained to that feeling of discontent has nothing to do with the policy pursued by the Tuareg movement alkaidovskie stride, Salafist and other Islamist organizations. Now fighting in the main alkaidovskie cells fixed on the Tuareg area of residence in the 2000s. They seized control of those movements that make demands to protect the interests Tuareg population. Comrade Korendyasev reads:
«The West needs to build things knitted with the Islamic world. Do not make speeches at the Institute of Cairo, and actually change their policies.
Mali — the fifth country, subject to invasion troops from the Euro-American society. And many create memories that their only purpose — to kill Islam, to suppress the Islamic population. Here it is necessary to change the policy.
The current flare in Mali was provoked nekompitentnym defeat Gaddafi regime. If it had not been defeated this regime, nothing would have happened. Alkaidovskie forces in Mali and other countries have not been able to organize such a movement. One of its consequences was the departure of large Tuareg groups who were part of the Libyan army. Many of them hid in the Sahara.
Excellent armed, highly trained, experienced, they now form the backbone of the movement of military forces in Mali. «
Meanwhile in Strasbourg talking about a humanitarian catastrophe.
January 21 President of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) Jean-Claude Mignon spoke at a press conference on the opening of the winter session of naikrupneyshgo Policy Forum Europe, and said:
«I, as a French deputy, support intervention of France in Mali to retake the territorial integrity of the country and stop the spread of terrorism. Malian crisis could lead to dire humanitarian consequences. «
According to the views of Monsieur Mignon, because of the worsening of the conflict in the country adjacent to Mali, also in the southern part of Europe can rush the flow of migrants.
Do not stay aside and our homeland. Moscow is ready to give France tf for deployment to Mali troops and cargo. This was on the radio «Europe 1″ said January 20 the French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius. He saw that provide transportation Africans, Europeans and Canadians. In addition, he said, give mc «offered and Russian.» The minister added that the number of contingent states — participants of ECOWAS in Mali to increase from 3.3 thousand to 5.5 thousand due verbovaniya peacekeepers from Chad. French contingent of increase to 2.5 thousand.
According to the newspaper «Kommersant», Paris learned Russia’s position before the start of operations in Mali. Fabius asked Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, would not oppose Our homeland operations. Russian Minister gave the answer: Our homeland will not mind, because we also consider those militants «notorious bandits.» However, Comrade Lavrov reminded own employees, that in due time, France supported the same forces in Libya.
According to French media reports, in an operation in Mali now in general difficulties involved 1.9 thousand French soldiers, of which about a thousand is on the terrain of Mali. Involved about 40 armored vehicles, 12 fighter «Rafale» and «Mirage», 5 air tankers, two reconnaissance aircraft, one satellite. French forces in the towns of Bamako and Mopti formed two tactical battalion groups. Tech support operations in Mali today agreed to provide the following countries: USA, England, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Our homeland.
On the topic of Russia’s support former Ambassador to Mali Korendyasev Eugene says that Our homeland — Member counterterrorism coalition and thus maintains a policy to curb terrorist forces, «in whatever guise they were not.» Besides destabilization in the region, according to a professional the economic interests of Russia. If not in Mali, in the adjacent countries in Russian business structures have large interests from «Gazprom» — in Nigeria; at «Severstal» — in Liberia, Burkina Faso and Guinea; y «Rosatom» — in Niger; at «Lukoil» — in Côte d’Ivoire, Gabon and Sierra Leone.
Currently, the French are waiting for additional support from the Western powers. As the company of Michael Shurkin «RAND», the French might be interested in additional spy planes, including drones that could provide surveillance on the battlefield in real time. The least possible, according to the professional that France will ask the U.S. Army, he said, as she has troops able to cope with the insurgency. In any case, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta ruled out sending combat troops in Mali.
By the way, the U.S. approach to the support of the French in Mali illustrates perfectly the latest strategy of the Obama administration. According views Cordesman, a professional National Security of the Center for Strategic and international research, the U.S. away from the leading role in resolving regional crises. Obviously, Washington will have some kinds of assistance (for example, the same air transport), but special missions will be rejected. This is due to the reduction of the military budget, reorientation to ATP, performing the operation in Afghanistan and the Iranian and North Korean «provocations.» On the other, America simply can not afford. According to Cordesman, the role of «global policeman» would push the U.S. into the crucible at least some conflict. Earlier, South American military has prepared Malian soldier to fight with Islamic rebels in the northern part of the country. So what? These efforts have brought up, backfired: specifically prepared officers and overthrew the government.
Because the French are now more inclined to «push» on their own European allies of the Germans, Dutch and Italians.
But France and Germany have not formed.
This year, Germany and France began to print stamps, mint coins and established literary awards in honor of the 50th anniversary of the historic agreement, which started the peaceful cooperation between countries with 2, which became enemies in the end the Germans unleashed the second world war. But the celebration of the anniversary have been overshadowed by the crisis in Africa. In fact, the operation in Mali, undertaken by France, was the test of friendship 2-nations.
If France sent troops to Mali to pause the Islamists, then Germany declared that it would not help his own ally. Not much, the Ministry of Defence of Germany confirmed the magazine «Der Spiegel», that Berlin will do everything to ensure that the French gun is not loaded on the German aircraft based in the Netherlands.
In Germany there are strict rules requiring parliamentary approval for all military missions abroad. Still, the move is a stark reminder of the French obvious reluctance of Germany to be drawn into the conflict in Mali, even if it risks being forced to face the fact strained relations with its neighbor. Berlin took a similar approach in two years back, when the French coalition began aim to overthrow Gaddafi.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande on Mon able to bypass the issue of military assistance to Mali, where they drank champagne in a televised meeting room in Berlin. Merkel said that the German military, they say, are not very experienced in Africa, and why Germany evenly, step by step, make out, she can do anything here or not. Here she hastened to add, «But, of course, we can not turn away from each other, we’re partners.» Yet, it is clear that military force would not support French Germany.
Germans realize the assistance of another kind, and not the French. Germany promised to send two military aircraft to assist African troops transported in Bamako. The Germans also provide 1 million € ($ 1.3 million) for humanitarian assistance to Mali. There, according to the United Nations, because of the conflict appeared almost 380 thousand «displaced persons».
The fact that, unlike France, Germany has no strategic interests in the resource-rich Mali. And for Mrs. Merkel, the main agenda for a day or which — the eurozone crisis and the upcoming national elections, Mali is just an unnecessary distraction.
Regarding resources Mali Political Science Nikolai Maliszewski recalls that in this country a lot of gold, diamonds, tin, bauxite, phosphates, uranium, lithium, iron ore, manganese, polymetallic (copper, lead, zinc, silver) and rare pieces (molybdenum) . The country has a serious and hydropower potential.
«The French, acting on a U.S.» anti-terrorist «tracing paper — says analyst — performed at the moment the ground operation against the Islamists, who themselves armed Libyan guns seized after the overthrow of Gaddafi. NATO has already welcomed the military operation of the French troops, which immediately joined (albeit indirectly), England and Germany. The U.S. has also officially declared support of the French military operation, which has become a logical continuation of the Libyan. In fact, it is a joint operation against the West’s economic expansion in Africa, China, to establish barter gold and cotton from Mali and financing infrastructure projects in more than 35 countries in Africa … «
Some Western experts also believe that Mali — a «continuation» of Libya.
Reliable information about the sources of guns, which currently consume Islamist rebels in Mali, get hard. But in the West, many analysts agree that much of it came from Libya. Peter Bouckaert of «Human Rights Watch» Western society warns about the huge risks and then mentions a weapon that «missing» in Libya. Here MANPADS and anti-tank missiles and rockets for «Grad», and mortars and heavy machine guns. Something has already been seen in Mali. In fact, the rebel forces in Mali armed to the teeth — like the army of Libya. Bouckaert says that one thing — to fight the rebels, armed with AK-47, and quite another — to wage war against an army equipped with heavy weapons and MANPADS. According to him, it is «a very different conflict.»
But this «other» conflict not scare France. Not deterred her from warfare and disloyalty allied Germany. Hollande need voynushka victorious — and he would seek «full liberation» of Mali from Islamist rebels. The purpose of the good, and it supports our homeland, noting, however, that the picture in Libya is slightly different from the picture of the Malian. One thing is clear here: cakewalk war in Mali to France would not, and not the fact that the French economic interest in gold, diamonds, tin, uranium and other minerals will be satisfied immediately after the victorious blitzkrieg. It is highly unlikely that Germany and France had U.S. support fighters. There is only hope for additional military resources from African States. Because faster right experts pessimists, if experts are optimistic. Mali bright democratic future, and along with the triumph of Monsieur Hollande — this vision is as fantastic as it is unexpected fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Because Hollande will go down in history as a lame duck and the taxman applicant friendship gay, and the war in Mali, where long entrenched alkaidovtsy how annoying it may sound, will be as long, exhausting and losing, like all wars waged by the West against constructive Islamists.
Surveyed and translated Oleg Chuvakin