Mistakes of Armenia and Azerbaijans success (Journal of Turkish Weekly Turkey)

Mistakes of Armenia and Azerbaijan's success ("Journal of Turkish Weekly" Turkey)Armenia and Azerbaijan have are independent states, as well as other former Russian republic — after the collapse of the Russian Union. Some of the republics were really ready for a "happy ending", while for others, the collapse of the Soviet Union was a long awaited event, which did not come all the way. In other words, many of them were not ready for independence — economically, politically, and most importantly — mentally. Two of these republics: Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Armenia was not able to be independent in the new time, except for the period of the First Republic (1918-1920). Armenians of the First Republic did not have any idea about how to take advantage of the independence, or of municipal management. Before World War I Armenians lived under the Ottoman, Russian and Iranian sovereignty. And specifically, the first global war has turned into a civilization of the Armenians of the Diaspora. Armenians spread all over the world, and because of commercial, political and other circumstances, have become more romantic and idealistic, breaking away from Turkey. The difficulties of living in a foreign land affected by all the qualities of life of the Armenian people. The conflicts between the Turks and the Armenians were very exaggerated, and in 1915 — has become something of an idealized and a legend. The hatred of the Turks became the cement that united them in the Diaspora. The fact that they were not able to make their own country, although the reach of success would be to defend his dignity in the struggle against the Turks, as troubles in achieving unity in other areas did not allow Armenians to refer to themselves critically. Then the Greeks, for example, by creating its own government and won a number of important victories over the Turks, were the least romantic and installed more or less the usual case with the Turks. Armenians, on the contrary, unfortunately, remained in a fantasy world. In reality, one of the main causes of such rather short history of the first country of the Armenian Genocide was the last idealism. Armenians prefer the murder of Turkish diplomats establish normal relations with its new neighbors. Adventure titled "Retribution" in a certain sense, the Armenians distracted from the real problems. While made on the ruins of the Ottoman Empire, the Turkish Republic in the same period incited own people to attack the Greeks, Armenians or any other neighbors, a favorite of the young Mustafa Kemal Ataturk read their own people, "We just came out of the war. But the real and the greatest war yet to come. And it is a war — a war for development. " In his view, to be truly independent, is able to reinforce its independence and the development of economic independence. Because Turkey should not lose time dealing with problems already passed. In accordance with this course zanogo Ataturk tried to build their business with Greece and other countries that were part of the Ottoman Empire. Armenia was among them, but she was not able to respond positively to this bold step.

Ter-Petrosyan: the failed attempt of the Armenian Revolution

The fundamental point is that Armenia has re-emerged in the historical arena in 1991. After receiving the new government, the Armenians could be a more realistic way. Turkey also waiting to get a partner with whom it was possible to establish the case for the solution of the Armenian question. Also, the first president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan and some of his advisers believed that they should not repeat the same mistakes. According to the views of Petrosian first major mistake most of the Armenians was that they put in front of him puzzles, far beyond the limits of their abilities. Knowing that they themselves fail to achieve of success in relying on their power, they hoped to assist, and rebelled against the Ottoman Empire to the creation of a separate country for the Ottoman countryside. In their opinion, the birthplace of our support of the Armenians, while Britain, the U.S., France and other Christian countries to put pressure on the Turks in the international arena, and lead them to recognize the demands of Armenians. The only thing they need to do is keep their requirements as may be longer. In accordance with the Armenians resorted to terrorism in shambles and other similar methods in throughout the 20th century. In World War I, they even fought wars against the Ottoman Empire on the side of France and Russia. But in the end, and specifically Armenians have always lost. They have lost their own people and the land on which they lived for centuries. As if the Armenians did everything they read our homeland, or even the UK and France. In 1915, they rose in revolt against the Ottoman Empire in the eastern part of the country, when the Allies sent the most powerful fleet in the entire previous history of the world to the Dardanelles (the Western Front). But the Armenians were not able to achieve any of success. France was the first to put away their troops, as they are faced with difficulties. Our homeland never fully supported Armenia, and after the First World War, supported the new Turkish government. If these countries are in fact supported by an independent Armenia, the Ottoman Empire would never have been able to withstand the pressure of the majestic powers. First conclusion of Levon Ter-Petrosyan: Armenians should count its own forces. It was a great mistake to rely one hundred percent of the Armenians in their own policy on assistance from other countries.
Second conclusion made by Levon Ter-Petrosyan: Armenia — a small, poor, cut off from the sea country without any significant natural resources, surrounded by Turkic peoples. In the West, Turkey with its 75 million population, whereas in the East Azerbaijan 7 million, and in the south — by some estimates — 30 million Azeri-Turks of Iran. On the other hand, Georgians in the north have always been allies of the Turks for centuries. Armenia has no common border with Russia. These criteria for the existence of a single method — to establish good business with its neighbors, especially with the Turks. Third important conclusion made by Mr. Petrosyan: If Armenia wants true independence, it should go away with Moscow. Yerevan, which for decades was that of dependence on Moscow, must break these bonds and get on his feet.

Conclusions Petrosian, as a result, the following:

1. Armenians do not need to rely on the support of other countries in achieving the goals that go far beyond the scope of their own powers and abilities.
2. Need to develop business with neighbors, especially with Turkey.
3. Need to rapidly reduce dependence on Russia and make one hundred percent independent Armenia.

Petrosian and his team were close to, to make a revolution in the Armenian consciousness. But the desire for independence does not mean preparedness. They were still completely in nationalism, which was so romantic and fixated on the ground. Under the "Homeland" Armenians understand, first, the terrain and mystical dreams. They regarded the seizure of Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nakhichevan (Azerbaijan) and Javakheti (Georgia) and their inclusion in Armenia as a primary puzzle. Even before the collapse of the Union of Armenian Russian ultra-nationalists began to fight for the accession of Karabakh to Armenia. So Makar, before the implementation plan Petrossian, the Karabakh discrepancy became dominant in the region. In addition to this, th
ere was turmoil in Azerbaijan, thanks to the direct support from Moscow, the Armenians not only captured Karabakh but also the town and village in which lived only Azerbaijanis. They stormed Nakhchivan, but eventually prompt warning Turkey military action limited the eastern front.

As a result of these events Petrosyan lost chance for a compromise with the Turks. The occupation of Karabakh and its surrounding areas have served as a prerequisite for a break with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Although Turkey was one of the first countries to recognize Armenia, she broke diplomatic affairs with Armenia and closed the border. This is quite normal because both Azerbaijan and Turkey — Turkic countries. During the war, the streets of Turkish cities were filled with demonstrations of protest. Turkey than any other country in the region is committed to maintaining the status quo, since 1923. The main principles of Turkish foreign policy is that there can be no configurations of borders in the region by force. Turkey has for decades opposed forcible change of borders and considers the Armenian occupation as illegal attempt configuration of borders.
Despite this, Turkey looks for ways to avoid the deadlock in the decision prepyadstviya. Turkish Armenian favorites expect that it will release at least countryside outside Karabakh. If Armenia take steps in this direction, Turkey is ready for another huge steps forward. Armenia once sent proposals in this direction during the 1990s. Turkey even sent food Armenian population after the war, in times of worsening the already dramatic situation. Moreover, assistance and donations sent from European and American countries, may only be delivered to Armenia through Turkey. As a gesture of good will, Turkey opened its air space for Armenians and opened the constant flights between Turkey and Armenia. But Petrosian realized that as long as he does not take any steps on the Karabakh issue, he can not solve any problem. He intended to make positive steps in the last days on his own post, but our homeland and ultra-nationalists came on the scene and shifted the Petrosian. It is clear that the Dashnak that have been banned by Petrosian played a major role in this process.

Period Kocharyan

After Petrosyan came to power last romantic Robert Kocharian. He was not even a citizen of Armenia, when he became president. He walked in the elections by fraud and had no idea that such a government. He was a fighter in every sense of the word and puzzle aware of the Armenians so that all Armenians okkupirovannnoe be protected. In his view, the Turks bad, Armenians are great, our homeland — a friend, Azerbaijan and Turkey — enemies. His views do not go beyond that.

Thus ended the era of Petrosyan, and together with her withered hopes for peace. Policies and guidelines Kocharyan were straight back previous conclusions.
1. Deal with Russia to deepen, and many Russians and supporters occupied the top position of the Russian Federation in Armenia. During this period, at the same time that other former Russian republic economically and politically, moving away from the Russian Federation, Armenia became dependent on Russia, even more than it was in the Russian era. In particular, in the energy sector of Armenia Our homeland has become a monopolist. Having occupied a dominant position in the economy, our homeland has become to control and Armenian politics. Armenia is the only stronghold of the Caucasus, although it can not get from Russia meaningful assistance.
2. Kocharian's team has taken great efforts to develop relations with the Diaspora. She especially hopes pinned to find loans and sources of financial aid in the Diaspora. The Diaspora could provide economic and political support. But the expected financial help came with a huge delay, and it was much less than expected. Moreover, the extremists seized a monopoly on the case with Armenia and even took control of the internal politics of the country. Armenia has not been able to become independent state, standing on its own feet.

3. The government has declared war on Kocharian's almost to the Turkish people. Has launched a campaign for the so-called the Bill of genocide in parliaments around the world. It was assumed that such makarom Turkey will be in the difficult position in the international arena and will be obliged to accept the Armenian claims. In other words, Kocharyan was once again use the traditional Armenian strategy. Instead of relying on our own strength, and relying on the support of Armenia, harmed its relations with its neighbors.

4. In the end, when Kocharian of Armenia began uncompromising policy on the Karabakh issue. It was stated that Karabakh is an independent state and will never be returned to Azerbaijan. In other areas under occupation is also not done any concessions. Being himself a native of Karabakh, Kocharian hired to protect themselves from the Karabakh Armenians to protect his own presidency and personal safety. So Makar, the Karabakh issue took control of the internal and external policy of Armenia.

Who won, who lost? Azerbaijan or Armenia?

Vorachivayas to its own previous policy, Armenia thinks that she won a decisive victory over Azerbaijan. But in reality, truly overpowered by Azerbaijanis.

Of all the former Russian republics, perhaps, Azerbaijan was the most unprepared for independence. There was no concept of national identity. On the one hand, the Communists have done everything to bind Azerbaijan to Moscow, on the other hand, the nationalists were so romantics and idealists, they intended to make a huge Turk government, including Central Asia, Iran and Turkey. In the end, as a result of internal conflicts and strife with the direct support of, provided by Armenia, Azeri lost 20% of its land which is occupied by Armenia. About one million Azerbaijanis became refugees, and that the problem lasts to this day. Azerbaijan, the very few at a time, lost his country, but gained national unity, economic development and included in the global market.

Let's see what headed for Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia
1. Azerbaijan has become a real state government after the attack Armenia and Armenia as a result of the attack. Without the Armenian aggression during the formation of the state of consciousness would drag on forever.
2. Azerbaijan has become more homogeneous in composition state. During the war, about 500,000 Armenians left Azerbaijan and all Azerbaijanis from Armenia are gone. Azerbaijani Armenians were the most affluent and influential people in Baku. Their departure from the country meant getting the real independence of Azerbaijan. Even in the Karabakh Armenians were comparable to richer, and they took advantage of the same rights as everyone else. Armenian, Azerbaijani occupied areas, have lost their privileged position in the economy of Azerbaijan, but only received a total of terrain.
3. Without the war, Azerbaijan'd still be a puppet of Moscow and could never have managed to achieve real independence. The war led to the rupture of bonds so that they will never be restored to its previous form. If at the moment Azerbaijan — a truly independent government, it is because of Armenian aggression.
4. Thanks to our own uncompromising and brutal towards Armenia Azerbaijan was able to isolate Armenia in the region. In fact Baku happy with the policy pursued by Armenia against Turkey and Azerbaijan. In the end, such policy of Armenia was left out of all the regional projects of cooperation and integration.
With their rich oil and gas resources, Azerbaijan is becoming stronger and stronger, while Armenia is losing money in economic terms. In the criteria conflict with neighbors really hard to get on his feet. Captured Karabakh — it is not the region which is of such losses. He brings no utility Armenia, but was a heavy burden for the Armenian economy.

In this situation — the conclusions of Azerbaijan:

1. Of cou
rse, he fails to return Karabakh by force right at the moment. The main reason: Our homeland supports Armenia. When in 1999 the Azerbaijani army is intended to capture the Karabakh Our homeland has warned that "if you insist on it, you will lose and Ganja."
2. In-2, the U.S. and the EU do not respond correctly to Armenia's occupation of Azerbaijani areas. Through the activities of the Armenian Diaspora, first in France and the United States, these countries have policies procrastination. Karabakh and other areas remain under occupation, and the Western countries are only promise to do something. Azerbaijan is aware that the West will not have enough pressure on Armenia as a country occupier — at least, in recent times.
3. The U.S. and Europe are interested in Azerbaijani oil and gas, but it has not yet become a factor of political support.
4. Turkey itself can not end the occupation.

In these circumstances, instead of wasting time in vain, Azerbaijan decided to strengthen its army, immediately forcing Armenia in a difficult position. In order to resolve the difficulties with the position of Azerbaijan should be some time to pursue a policy deadlock. During this period, Azerbaijan will increase, and Armenia — to weaken. In other words, the extension of the existence of difficulties in the interests of the occupied territories of Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan was right, taking such an uncompromising and extremist position that Armenians can not even pull back a little from that area, they occupied. Instead of wasting time on the captured area, Armenia, Azerbaijan ousted from all regional development projects. The most important of them: the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. Quite obviously, that this pipeline would go through Armenia, if Yerevan government has come to a little softened its position. Or the project would not have taken place, or he would go through Armenia at a rather short and a cheap way. Because specifically the United States and Europe could provide capital for the project, Azerbaijan failed to warn that if, in 1990 Armenia acted wiser. Then the pipeline and passed by Armenia, and now the steel road will bypass it. Steel road that passes through Armenia can not be applied, forcing Turkey and Azerbaijan to build another, via Georgia. Armenians have tried to stop it, acting all over the world, including the Congress of South American and Europe. They even tried to provide guarantees trains that will take place on the terrain of Armenia. But this has not been a lot of very, very late. Very important when all of this, that the cooperation between Azerbaijan and Turkey is becoming more intense and covers all areas — from military to economic. Armenia absolutely isolated in the region, and the political support of the Russian Federation does not contribute to the economic development of Armenia. Because of the lack of a common border with Russia and because of greedy, not strategic partnership affairs of the Russian Federation, Armenia found itself in a potentially unsafe situation. For 15 years, the population of Armenia was reduced from 3 to almost 2 million people. They are leaving again around the world. Only for work in Turkey came for about 50-75 thousand Armenians from Armenia.

Other Azerbaijan's success is that it is a step-by-step attracts more attention to the U.S. and European countries. Armenians are still influential in these countries, and Azerbaijan Azerbaijan remains. But Azerbaijan is involved in close cooperation with Western companies on energy and other issues, and these countries are beginning to realize the importance of Azerbaijan evenly. For example, on energy security dilemmas Union Euro Azerbaijan is key. The BTC pipeline connects the oil resources of the Caspian basin to the European and Mediterranean markets. Italy — a country that is basically what others enjoyed it. BTC — is a principal candidate for the European and Russian markets of Middle East oil. Also, the supply of gas to Europe via Georgia and Turkey, and joining of Kazakh and Turkmen gas will be such a candidate for Europe. But even now, in the current situation, European companies have a significant stake in the Azerbaijani energy resources, Azerbaijan and there is not a country that is as simple as before, could be sacrificed. Also see the situation from the standpoint of the United States. They are willing to break the dominance of in the region, and are very interested in the oil. Azerbaijan and Central Asia not only can be a principled candidate of, but they themselves will be able to get out from under the influence of, if you will are independent energy players and get rid of the control of. For this reason, the U.S. pay much attention to Azerbaijan and other republics of Central Asia. Another important factor that contributes to the significance of Azerbaijan, is the neighborhood with Iran and with 30 million Azerbaijani population in this country. U.S. very much is expected from Azerbaijan in the destabilization of Iran and anti-Russia. The zeal of Azerbaijan to the West in collaboration with Georgia and Turkey in the fundamental interests of the United States. But the consequences of this approach are inconspicuous in the Karabakh issue. In the U.S., the EU and the Armenian lobby is very influential, because in certain qualities it overrides the cooperation of these countries with Azerbaijan. Namely, in this particular issue, the U.S. and the EU are much smaller field of maneuver than they would like. Despite this, they magically cooperate in the economic sphere, and this will continue in the future. Azerbaijan on this issue while holding back their expectations. He does not trust that the West will end the occupation. Azerbaijan is aware that to achieve such results takes time. In fact segodnyaschy situation corresponds to the interests of Azerbaijan. If Armenia is under pressure, and under the influence of Armenia withdraws from the occupied regions of Azerbaijan will change rapidly demographic and political balance, which can lead to internal variable. In addition, hundreds of thousands of people who fled Karabakh and other captured areas, has moved into the house and left the tent, where they lived before. Some of them have already got a job, and in a sense made the current situation. An unexpected change in the existing situation can provoke any past expectations. Because in today's state of gradual configuration is much preferable. At the same time, Azerbaijan is exploiting Armenia's role as "occupant" to the end. It also frees Armenia from all regional projects, and Armenia, wasting away the time in the captured areas, can not engage in any world, nor in the regional economy. Azerbaijan meanwhile transformed into a growing regional power.

The real success of Azerbaijan is, of course, its economic development. Especially after the start of the BTC pipeline in Azerbaijan started a real boom. Growth in 2005 was 26.4%, in 2006 this growth was surpassed (about 30.6-32.5%). Though with a little slower, but that's about the same growth is expected in 2007. This growth prevails fraction of oil and gas, but also the non-oil sector rose by 9.5%, which is also a very high-spirited growth. It is easy to imagine that the flow of income from the energy sector to other sectors will lead to future growth in non-oil sector of the economy. In addition, the budget deficit fell sharply. Sharply increased exports and imports. It is easy to see the signs of prosperity in the streets of Baku. GDP per capita exceeded $ 7,300 in 2006, and will grow further. The unemployment rate fell to 1.2%.
At the same time, Armenia is going the other way. Although the growth rate in 2006 was about 12%, these numbers are somewhat distorted state of awareness so malehankih as in Armenia, the economy. An economy that survives thanks to a little outside assistance, and translation is not sufficient in order to detain people in the country. The construction sector enters the dominant contribution to
the growth of the Armenian economy. Diaspora takes significant amounts of funds into the country. These foreign exchange resources and cause economic growth. But this growth can not be considered as a measured and solid economic growth. Armenian economy can not do internal motor development and is in need of further assistance and currency translations. Unemployment in Armenia is seeking 30%. Investment in the private sector are mostly from the Diaspora. This means the predominance of the diaspora in the economy, and the means and in the country's politics. Our homeland immediately took control by certain sectors of the economy such as energy. Despite the fairly high-spirited economic growth, per capita income is $ 1,513. Even taking into account the fact that in terms of purchasing power parity it exceeds $ 5,000, it is very surprising that the per capita income remains the same despite the sharply declining population. The main problem of investment in the Armenian economy is the uncertainty associated with the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh. Even some of the Armenian diaspora are cautious in investing in the country. Vpribavok closed borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan and landlocked increasing dependence on Georgia and Iran. Accordingly, this increases costs and customs of Armenia.


Summarizing, we can say briefly that the Armenia thinks that won the Karabakh and other occupied areas. She believes that with the passage of time will force other countries to have forgotten about the occupation, it is not clear, however, why. It puts at risk the entire country over Karabakh. Armenia can not adapt to changes in the concept of the state of the country. She still lives the old-fashioned notions of statehood of the XIX century. Only because of the territories of Armenia exposes threats own people and their own state, which she eventually found it. Armenians build their policy on the fight against the Turks, although they are surrounded by 110 million Turks. Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink was the position of the Armenian identity should not be built on the conflict with the Turks. In accordance with his views, specifically it is a poison in the Armenian blood. And no matter where they are, says Dr. Dink, Armenians should be cleansed from that poison and enter the holy alliance with Armenia. The alliance should serve to save the life of Armenia, and not to serve personal or ideological interests with the introduction of Armenia.

Citizens of the state of their own and are trying to glorify him. But the Armenians seek to satisfy their feelings and aspirations, sacrificing Armenia. Are treated with respect for their failures in the past, I can not understand whether they want to celebrate their country or to satisfy their own personal political ambitions in the struggle against the Turks.

They have not made a first assessment of the history of the Armenian country. At first, it used the Dashnak government in order to take revenge, and later handed him over to the Bolsheviks. Let us hope that history does not repeat itself. Maybe it's them and amaze, but we'll be the first who is most concerned about. Turkey and the region needs a more powerful and-independent Armenia, than that which is necessary for the diaspora.

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