In Ukraine, the elections to the Verkhovna Rada. Although the final results yet, so both protocols (in the electric version) processed only only 99 per cent, but at the moment we can do some trivial conclusions. The main amidst other is that the opposition has lost a chance for revenge …
Even in this case, if the opposition would be able to get most of the Ukrainian parliament, that virtually no individual configurations in the government still might not happen, because since 1996 all the configuration in the plan can only make the head of the country. Moreover, neither bill which would be contrary to the interests of the government, and will not be adopted, so as it simply does not approve the president.
And it even more so there is no point not read that, and think about the announcement of "no confidence" Yanukovych, despite numerous predictions associates Lady Yu And this is completely logical explanation: in-1's, for making such decisions must be constitutional majority of votes of the members of parliament, in-2, the country simply is not written mechanism actuation of the constructive act.
Favorites of the opposition parties have been entered into confusion and sociologists who conducted the exit polls. According to the information provided by them disk imaging, "Fatherland" supposedly had actually recruit an equal number of votes from the Party of the Regions — 27 percent to 30. A "Freedom" — about the same as the Communist Party — about 12 percent. And yet, the present situation by this time does not look quite like this: PR still has 30 percent of the vote, All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland" — a little more than 25 percent, "Blow" Vladimir Klitschko — 13.7 percent, the Communist Party — 13.3 percent and "Freedom" — a little more than 10 percent of the vote.
So Makarov, even if consider the event that the pro-presidential Favourites party connect to the parties who were not able to overcome the 5 percent threshold, and the Communists, it completely can score the most. In general, read about it too early. After all, no one does not exclude the fact that the opposition forces can, in the end, we agree and make a coalition.
But we should not forget the fact that the PR won (per above) and a victory by majority inventories. Of all the candidates who have passed the single-typed approximately 110-115 people. Plus, there are more independents who have membership in the Party of Regions. In addition, the mandates will have a few 10 s of various ranks of entrepreneurs who are likely to cooperate with the authorities to maintain an appropriate criterion for business development.
In this case, the PR can make a large part only just for its own members. And in cooperation with the Communists advantage will be to a large extent supported.
But on the other hand, to make all the configurations to the Constitution the president will need more than 3 hundred votes. In another he did not get to make the configuration on the presidential election by parliament, not the people. In general, this also read too early, because until the new election of the head of the country even more 2-years so that Yanukovych still have quite a time in order to figure out how to do so in order to stay in power for another term. And have a lot of thinking and hard …
Very fascinating picture emerged regarding voice for the pro-Russian political forces. Thus, in the majority of mandates received only a few small batches of favorites — "Homeland" and "Union", and then in the Crimea and Odessa region. To a large extent this explains the rejection of the role of the party in the elections of Natalia Vitrenko, who is well aware that her bloc will not overcome the entrance barrier.
So Makar, of all the political forces advocating the friendship with Russia, suddenly the highest results showed the Communist Party, which has never departed from the policy of unity of the former Russian Union. In general, many Ukrainian residents who support these ideas, once again "bought" the promises of the Party of Regions, although the entire policy of the party before the actual moment nothing to do with the pro-Russian course has not, and is focused (now usually) to the West. And what is most unusual, "Regionals" continue to press the Russian side of warranties based on the postulates of "community."
To all of the above must be added the fact that the outcome of the election a few 10 s of places and get a nationalist party "Freedom." At first glance this may seem insignificant trifle. But if you remember the activity of representatives of the ultranationalist movement … The party smogshaya break into parliament, no longer a marginal structure — this is a completely respectable political force that will influence domestic policy. Even more often in the media can meet not been enticed to assess the party, which is considered overtly fascist.
You can not fluctuate that favorite party — Oleg Tyagnibok, inspired by the success ("Freedom for 6 years has made the jump from the current 0.4 percent to 10 percent), do everything possible to promote it not only in the western regions of Ukraine. In addition, the Nationalists, of course, will direct efforts on the radicalization of the opposition forces and to hold of for himself in the Party Name partners who, apparently, has not yet determine what access.
By the way, party "Beat" also became a big surprise to the authorities. But if your loaf, then it is only party, invented by spin doctors specifically for that part of the population, which is bored to death with "dismantling" "regionals", "BYT" and "Our Ukraine", in other words for the part of voters who are not yet ready to give their votes for "Freedom".
If all those political forces who claim to be the opposition, merge, you get more than half the seats in parliament. Then, and certainly in the country that can come revolutionary situation, the lack of which is with great regret read O.Tyagnibok.
It turns out that the favorites "regionals" nothing to rejoice too much. After all, if think of it, they were victorious thanks to the high level of public confidence in, and thanks to those deputies who have been in single lists. In addition, the turnout at the election of the population was significantly lower than predictable. And it is completely understandable: the citizens are dissatisfied with the political processes taking place in the country. The phenomenon, but the lowest turnout was recorded particularly in those regions which are counted as the Party of Regions — the south and east of Ukraine, and it says a lot. In contrast, the western region have shown an example of a real conscious approach to the election of a civilian own upcoming fate. In the end, the distance between the two leading parties-name is very small.
So Makar, you can read about that parliamentary elections will have no value in terms of rassredotachivaniya seats, and what policies will be elected by the Ukrainian government. For example, if the president decides that to win in the upcoming elections in 2015, he could not do without the Russian-speaking south-east of the country, it is completely likely option revision of the law on the status of the Russian language (more precisely, its increase). But similar dangerous flirtation with Western Ukrainian regions and the Western world may come to an end very badly. The examples do not have to walk too far, many still remain in the memory of "orange" Maidan.
Read any change in the course of foreign policy should not, in the 1-x, since the alignment of political forces in the Verkhovna Rada will not ch
ange, in-2, as Ukraine is firmly sits on the "gas hook" in Russia. Despite the numerous visits of Yanukovych in Moscow, the situation has not changed, well, hardly will change recently.
Our homeland, as the Russian salting M.Zubarev Ukraine is ready to take choice Ukrainian country, but for all that she has every right to respond to this choice because it considers it necessary, guided only by their own interests.
Well, if you look at the whole situation in Ukraine is very impartially, then of course, that in the state at this point, there is no political force that could radically change the situation. After all, no matter what power he came to power, for some reason "forgets" about the responsibilities and promises that she also voiced and intended to perform …
People are tired believe empty words, they need stability, and this is not an illusion. And with that power is a huge problem …